IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 9:55 PM EDT
692
FXUS63 KIND 230155
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
955 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rain for Sunday, with gusty winds also possible
- Temperatures hovering around normal through the middle of next
week before warm up begins
- Daily chances for showers Tuesday through next weekend
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
Forecast is largely on track and only had to make a few adjustments
to lower dew points slightly in a few spots. High to mid level
clouds will move in overnight and winds will shift to out of the SE
by morning ahead of a low pressure system bringing rain a breezy
conditions Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
Widespread rain and breezy conditions expected on Sunday.
Rest of This Afternoon into the Evening...
The cumulus field will thin out during the remainder of the
afternoon, bringing mostly clear conditions to the area for a
period. Some high clouds will increase from the west during the
evening.
As high pressure gradually builds in, winds will diminish.
Overnight...
Clouds will thicken and lower overnight as moisture is advected in
aloft. Low levels remain dry. This dry layer will keep most of the
nighttime hours dry across the entire forecast area. Late in the
tonight period (after 10Z or so), forcing and moisture may be enough
for some PoPs in the southwestern forecast area.
Temperatures will fall quickly this evening with light winds and
mainly thin cloud cover. Readings will stabilize or even rise some
overnight as clouds thicken. Lows will be in the 30s most areas,
with coldest readings in the northeast where thicker clouds will
arrive last.
Sunday...
Not too far above the surface, strong southwest winds will pump in
moisture to central Indiana on Sunday. A warm front will slowly work
its way northeast across much of the area. Good isentropic lift will
work with the moisture to bring widespread rain to central Indiana
during Sunday. Will have high PoPs spreading northeast during the
morning hours, with high PoPs continuing into the afternoon.
Good frontogenetic forcing will accompany the warm front, so
moderate rain will fall at times with briefly heavy rain not out of
the question. Models differ on where the heaviest overall totals
will set up, but ensembles indicate the southern forecast area would
be the most likely location.
Rainfall amounts by 00Z Monday look to be near an inch across the
southern forecast area,m with perhaps a half inch near I-70, and
less than a quarter of an inch in the far north. HREF Local
Probability Matched Mean shows 24 hour totals near 1.5 possible in
areas of the far southern forecast area (through 00Z Monday). Will
have to keep an eye out for this potential.
Instability is very low on Sunday, but can't rule out an isolated
storm especially south. Low to no instability is good since shear
will be very high. Any severe threat looks to remain south of the
Ohio River for now.
With strong winds not far off the ground, showers may be able to
bring down wind gusts around 35 mph (and these may also occur if
breaks in the rain allow some mixing to occur). Some hi-res models
are indicating gusts over 40 mph, so will have to watch for that
possibility as well.
Blended guidance may be a little warm with temperatures with
widespread rain around and the warm front taking a while to get to
the north. Will nudge down some.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
Sunday night through Wednesday night...
Precipitation will be shifting east at the very start of the period
as a cold front departs. Latest guidance shows steepening lapse
rates Sunday evening due to cold air advection and a strong LLJ
still in place. This setup along with a strong MSLP gradient will
likely support strong wind gusts up to 35 mph. A few CAMs are
hinting at steeper low-level lapse rates promoting stronger gusts,
but confidence is not high enough to increase wind gusts further.
Trends in high resolution models will continue to be monitored for
this setup. Winds are expected to gradually diminish overnight, but
forecast soundings depict a well mixed PBL for areas north of I-70
well into the overnight which could allow gusty winds to persist.
The drier airmass filtering in Sunday night remains in place through
Monday night limiting any precipitation chances. While quiet weather
is expected Monday, deep mixing and a strong LLJ still overhead will
likely result in windy conditions once again. Wind gusts up to 35
mph are possible.
Rain chances return on Tuesday when an impulse embedded within a
broad trough moves in. Marginal overall moisture and weak moisture
should result in light QPF amounts. Guidance then shows surface high
pressure building in Wednesday, but low POPs (20%) remain in the
forecast as a weak mid-level disturbance tracks through the area.
Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal during the first
half of the extended period with upper troughing aloft.
Thursday onward...
Rain chances begin to increase once again towards late week as
moisture streams northward ahead of a developing system across the
Plains. Uncertainty remains regarding exact details on the late
week system due to a large spread in model solutions. Guidance
also shows a weak southern stream low potentially developing near
the Southern Plains at the same time which could move towards the
region. Temperatures will warm up late next week thanks to
southerly flow returning. Expect highs in the 60s by Thursday and
70s for most on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 805 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR to IFR conditions return Sunday morning lasting through
evening
- More wind gusts, perhaps over 30kt, return Sunday
Discussion:
Winds will calm as the sun sets and become light and variable
overnight as winds shift from the the NW to SE by early morning.
High/mid clouds will increase tonight. Rain will move in from the
southwest Sunday, and conditions will drop to MVFR and briefly IFR
at most spots, in the rain. Showers could bring down gusts over 30kt
on Sunday. Rain is expected to come to an end shortly before or
around 00z tomorrow.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...KF
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 9:55 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503230155-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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