MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 3:59 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...
193
FXUS64 KMOB 202059
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
359 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
Now Through Friday Night... Cold and dry conditions will occur
tonight as a 1024mb surface high pressure area builds into our
region from the west. A light southerly return flow and warming
temperatures will return on Friday as the center of the high
pressure sets up across the northeast Gulf. Dry weather conditions
will persist throughout the near term.
With the surface high pressure moving over the deep south tonight,
along with clear skies and light winds, will result in effective
radiational cooling processes with lows dropping into the 33 to 37
range north of I-10, 38 to 43 closer to the coast. These temps are
about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Considering we are moving into
the start of the growing season, a Frost Advisory remains in effect
as the pattern supports the development of late night frost which
will be detrimental to tender, young vegetable seedlings if left
unprotected.
Expect highs on Friday to range from 66 to 70 inland, and from 62 to
65 degrees along the coast. These temps are about 4 to 9 degrees
below normal. Lows Friday night will be chilly, dropping into the
upper 30s to lower 40s inland, with middle to upper 40s along the
coast. A Low Risk of rip currents will continue through the near
term period. /22
Saturday Through Sunday... Dry conditions continue as nearby high
pressure maintains its hold over our area. Highs warm into the
mid to upper 70s both days and lows Saturday night range from the
mid to upper 40s inland to the low to mid 50s closer to the coast.
No hazards are expected during this period. /96
Sunday night through Monday... An upper-level trough is expected to
dig into the Great Lakes region Sunday night. This will help to
bring a west-southwesterly flow pattern aloft over our area. Two
shortwaves appear to approach the area during this period: one
rounding the base of the upper trough to our north, and the other
being a southern stream trough lifting from the Gulf. The two
shortwaves appear to interact with each other as they move
near/over the local area, helping to bring high rain chances to
the area. At the surface, a weakening cold front is expected to
move through the area during the day on Monday. Looking to our
west (outside our area) deep layer shear values of around 30-40
knots and better instability should allow for thunderstorms to
organize into multicellular clusters/an MCS. How far east it can
make it is still rather questionable at this time. Although ample
deep-layer moisture and shear will be in place over our area,
there are a couple factors working against MCS maintenance as it
enters and moves through our area. The first is the forcing.
Forecast guidance suggests that although the two shortwaves
interact with each other and move overhead, things seem to be
rather disjointed/out-of-phase. Pretty much every model shows the
same thing for Monday morning... flow in the 200-300mb level is
diffluent whereas the flow in the 500mb level is more confluent as
the shortwave moves to the east of the area. Looking lower, the
850mb front looks to have passed our area during the early morning
hours, giving way to a west-northwesterly flow, and the surface
front moves through closer to the late morning hours. The other
question is instability. Low-level moisture return appears to be
meager at best, with dew points briefly reaching the low 60s
Monday morning. Additionally, forecast soundings show very poor
lapse rates from the surface up to 1-2km. Lapse rates do improve
generally above 3km, so some elevated instability may be present.
With these two factors working against the MCS, I would anticipate
the MCS to weaken once it enters the area. Gusty winds (and maybe
some small hail) cannot be ruled out, especially over our
southeast Mississippi/southwest Alabama counties, but the
weakening trend should lower the overall strong/severe storm risk
the further east it goes. The MCS (or whatever is left of it) will
move through the remainder of the area by the late morning/early
afternoon hours, with conditions drying out in its wake. /96
Monday night through Thursday... High pressure builds in in the wake
of the front, bringing drier conditions to the local area for the
remainder of the period. Not expecting any hazards through this
period, although low RH's may bring some fire weather concerns.
Winds, however, should remain light. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
VFR flight category will prevail throughout the forecast. Gusty
northwesterly winds will persist through this afternoon sustained
around 12 to 20 knots occasionally gusting near or just over 25
knots. Winds relax after sunset and turn more northerly tonight.
/22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
A Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire tonight as
a strong northwesterly flow will diminish into Friday morning and
shift northeasterly. A light onshore flow will resume Friday and
persist through the weekend. Another cold front approaches the
coastal waters late Sunday into Monday and brings next next chance
of showers and storms. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 36 67 45 76 53 75 59 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 50
Pensacola 39 63 47 71 56 71 62 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 60
Destin 44 62 49 70 56 71 62 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 70
Evergreen 35 68 40 77 46 78 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 60
Waynesboro 33 68 39 77 48 79 57 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 80 40
Camden 34 66 41 74 47 79 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 40
Crestview 33 68 37 76 44 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for ALZ051>060-
261>264.
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for FLZ201-203-205.
MS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 3:59 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503202059-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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