JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 3:18 PM EDT
750
FXUS63 KJKL 221918
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
318 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty winds, dry fuels, and humidity below 30 percent in most
locations will result in an increased risk of wildfires through
this evening. A special weather statement is in effect through
8pm for this.
- Temperatures will be around freezing in most locations by Sunday
morning, with widespread frost expected.
- Another system crosses the area to end the weekend and should
bring a round of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Sunday
evening and overnight - producing wetting rainfall of around a
half an inch.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
Fire weather concerns are still in place for the rest of today, with
breezy winds, drying fuels, and RH around or below 30 percent across
much of the CWA. Will keep the SPS for fire weather concerns in
place through it's original 8pm time. These winds are expected to
diminish overnight as high pressure moves overhead. With NW flow in
place aloft, and strong subsidence at the surface, this will lead to
quickly cooling temperatures overnight, especially in the deeper
valleys. Many locations are expected to hit freezing, and even more
could wake up to a good frosting by Sunday morning.
Heading into the day Sunday, a strengthening low pressure system
will be moving across the Upper Midwest, reaching the Upper Great
Lakes by 0Z Monday. A secondary upper level low will also be present
across the Southern Plains Sunday morning, also moving eastward as
it evolves into an open wave. A strong frontal boundary will connect
the two systems at the surface, moving eastward towards the Ohio
Valley. This front should pass through eastern Kentucky during the
late afternoon and evening Sunday, exiting just before 12Z Monday.
With increasing S to SE winds expected Sunday morning, and good
moisture advection just to our west, it is possible that pops could
start increasing ahead of the front, moving into the northern CWA by
noon, then increasing from the west to east throughout the
afternoon. However, pops will max out along the actual frontal
boundary as it passes through Saturday evening and overnight. While
thunder still does look to be possible in places along and just
ahead of the front, the instability isn't as impressive as in past
runs. In fact, SPC has removed much of the marginal risk from our
CWA (perhaps a small sliver of Wayne county is still intact) through
12Z Monday. The fact that it's moving in overnight, and temperatures
will quickly be dropping will also help to limit instability. By the
time the front moves through, temperatures are expected to fall into
the low and mid 40s for lows Sunday night/Monday morning.
By 12Z Monday, most of the precip should have exited to the east,
and skies will be clearing heading into the extended portion of the
forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
There remains reasonable agreement in the various ensembles and
deterministic data that we will see a cold front push east of the
area and high pressure push into the Ohio Valley by Monday. This
will usher in quiet weather Monday afternoon into Monday night.
However, we will see an increase in clouds Monday night ahead of the
next storm system. There remains a fair amount of divergence in the
models on the next clipper system that is slated for mainly Tuesday
into Tuesday night. This seems to be related to the timing and depth
of the mid-level shortwave and this is leading to differences in
amounts. That said, the NBM is showing around a 40-70 percent chance
of seeing measureable rain (0.01) ending Wednesday morning at 2 AM,
with best chances in northern and northeast Kentucky.
The northwest flow in the mid-levels will leave the Ohio Valley open
to an additional wave on Wednesday. Plus, the flow at the surface
becomes more northwest Wednesday and some weaker upslope flow could
be favored. Therefore, the NBM keeps a some slight PoPs of around 20-
30 percent mostly across parts of the far eastern portions of the
state. The northwest flow does also lead to a little cooler air at
the surface, with highs topping out in the mid 50 to near 60
degrees. This is fairly close to normal this time of year despite
the relatively warm days we have seen of late.
There is reasonable agreement that high pressure pushes across the
Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. This combined with clearing skies
Wednesday night will lead to some frost potential by Thursday
morning, with lows in the lower 30s to even upper 20s possible in
the deeper more sheltered valley sites. Given this will lean
toward the fifth and tenth percentiles of the NBM for overnight
lows in the valleys.
As we head into the end of this long terms period we see more
divergence show up with the guidance. There is another clipper
showing up for Thursday night into Friday coupled with a warm front.
This would lead to about a 20-30 percent chance of rain from
Thursday night into Friday. A strong system shows up by the weekend,
with additional divergence showing up and therefore will keep closer
to the NBM for this feature. The warm front lifting northward and
ample warm air advection will allow temperatures to soar into the
lower to mid 70s for highs by the end of next week. We may even
see some climb into the 80s, with the NBM probabilities for highs
greater than 80 degrees around 50 to 60 percent chance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
VFR was observed at issuance time and is expected to prevail
through the period. A dry cold front passed through eastern
Kentucky today. Post frontal winds are now more westerly, and
will continue to mix through the afternoon, with gusts between 20
and 25 kts. A system to our northeast is also resulting in mid-
level and high clouds across portions of Kentucky, namely
affecting KSYM. These should begin moving out during the
afternoon. As we head into the overnight, winds will diminish. A
cold front will begin approaching from the west during the day
Sunday. This will result in winds becoming more SErly through 18Z
and an increase in cloud cover for much of the CWA. While most of
the rain should hold off until after the end of the TAF period,
there is some chances at KSYM - so tried to show that via a Prob30
around 17Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JKL
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 3:18 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503221918-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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