JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 7:45 AM EDT
863
FXUS63 KJKL 221145 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
745 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry cold front is crossing the area this morning.
- Gusty winds, drying fuels, and humidity dropping below 30
percent in most locations will result in an increased risk of
wildfires this afternoon and evening.
- Another system crosses the area to end the weekend and should
bring a round of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms -
producing wetting rainfall of around a half an inch or so.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows a mostly dry cold front pushing east
through central Kentucky. This is keeping the southwest winds
stirred at 5 to 10 mph with occasionally higher gusts over most
of the area - though there are still some calmer pockets where
the boundary layer has remained decoupled. These spots have
temperatures down to the mid 30s while the rest of the area is
closer to the mid and upper 40s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running
in the dry low 20s most places. The winds and variable clouds
ahead of the front are keeping the frost concerns to a minimum
early this morning.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a pair of compact shortwaves
moving through the Ohio Valley to start this weekend with ample
mid level energy passing through eastern Kentucky early this
morning and then again later today - but kind of weak. 5h heights
rise in the wake of these minor waves before the energy of the
next stronger trough starts to work into the area on Sunday. This
later wave deepens and digs into the Upper Midwest by afternoon
with fast and slightly southwest mid level flow over the state. A
couple of impulses will zip by the area in this flow during the
day Sunday along with better height falls inbound for that
evening. The overall model spread aloft being small supported
using the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids through
the period. Did make some adjustments to incorporate more terrain
distinction in the temperatures tonight and also added some of
the latest CAMs guidance into the PoPs for Sunday.
Sensible weather features another breezy and dry day with
seasonably warm temperatures despite the passage of a cold front.
This boundary will keep the winds breezy as they switch more
northwesterly by afternoon. An increase in moisture due to the
front will keep humidities from bottoming out as low as those on
Friday afternoon. However, the values will still be sub 30
percent for much of the area and with the breezy winds warranted
another SPS for near critical fire weather conditions. For
tonight, some clearing and the winds settling should be enough for
a small ridge to valley temperature difference to develop as well
as a fair amount of frost formation - with a few spots seeing
temperatures down around freezing by dawn, Sunday. Clouds and
then shower chances move back into eastern Kentucky by Sunday
afternoon ahead of that next trough and its sfc clipper. There
looks to be enough instability available, at least in the
southwest parts of the area, for a few thunderstorms to develop
late in the afternoon. Later, Sunday evening, these could become
more organized and a concern for strengthening as the better
dynamics aloft work into the area from the west. This system seems
to be good for about a half an inch of rain through the area -
probably not enough to ease fire weather concerns for much more
than a day or so, though.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adjusting temperatures for terrain distinctions tonight. Did also
lower dewpoints in the afternoon today. As for PoPs, mainly beefed
them up with more timing and coverage details from the CAMs on
Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 559 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
When the long term forecast period opens on Sunday night, showers
are likely to be ongoing in Central Kentucky. Rain chances peak
overnight in our forecast area, then decrease from northwest to
southeast as a cold front pushes through on Monday morning. While a
few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out along and west of the I-
75 corridor on Sunday night, the best thunderstorm chances with this
system are likely to remain displaced to the southwest in the
Tennessee Valley. There, guidance resolves slightly more favorable
instability parameters and greater low-level moisture return. In our
forecast area, forecast soundings show only meager amounts of
skinny, mostly-elevated CAPE. Frontal forcing and wind shear may
work together to produce some gusty thundershowers, but the threat
of severe weather looks fairly low in the commonwealth. Likewise,
the risk of flooding will be mitigated by the system's quick
passage. A clearing trend is expected by Monday afternoon, and the
return of the sunshine will allow AM lows in the 40s to recover to
near 60 degrees.
As the parent longwave trough propagates eastward on Monday night,
the flow aloft will shift towards a more northwesterly orientation.
Cold air advection kicks in as a result, and lows will accordingly
dip into the upper 30s/lower 40s by Tuesday morning. Forecast
guidance continues to resolve a weak, clipper-type system navigating
through this NW flow regime and towards the forecast area on Tuesday
evening. Due to the increasing model consensus, likely (50-60%) PoPs
have been introduced to the forecast on Tuesday afternoon and
evening for locations along/north of the KY Mountain Parkway. In
this corridor, increased cloud cover may limit highs to the
mid/upper 50s. Closer to the Tennessee state line, breaks in said
clouds could allow highs to reach the low 60s.
In typical clipper fashion, Tuesday's system will exit the area by
Wednesday morning. The persistent NW flow regime in its wake could
still produce light precipitation via orographic lift in the
northeastern half of the forecast area during the daytime hours, but
a building ridge should foster clear skies by dusk. With forecast
lows in the 30s and leftover low-level moisture from early week-
precipitation, a widespread frost is possible on Thursday morning.
Thursday afternoon looks dry and clear under the influence of a
surface high pressure system, but we will need to closely monitor
localized fire weather potential late next week. The NBM is known to
locally under-predict temperatures/winds and over-predict dewpoints
in set-ups like this. As a result, efficient diurnal mixing
processes could cause afternoon RH values to bottom out below 25% on
Thursday afternoon. Thankfully, another rain-making system looks to
approach the region at some point in the Friday-Saturday time frame
and (at least temporarily) stymie these springtime fire weather
concerns.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
VFR was observed at issuance time and is expected to prevail
through the period while a dry cold front crosses eastern Kentucky
early this morning. Still some southwesterly LLWS through 14Z at
up to 40 kts. As frontal passage occurs by mid morning for all TAF
sites, winds will become more westerly and remain westerly
through the afternoon with speeds increasing to 10 to 15 kts along
with gusts as high as 22 kts. There will be some reductions in
winds and gusts with a directional shift to more west-
northwesterly after 22Z - becoming light by mid evening through
the night into Sunday morning.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 7:45 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503221145-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAA)
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