JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 4:50 AM EDT
212
FXUS63 KJKL 220850
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
450 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry cold front will cross the area early this morning.
- Gusty winds, drying fuels, and humidity dropping below 30
percent in most locations will result in an increased risk of
wildfires this afternoon and evening.
- Another system crosses the area to end the weekend and should
bring a round of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms -
producing wetting rainfall of around a half an inch or so.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows a mostly dry cold front pushing east
through central Kentucky. This is keeping the southwest winds
stirred at 5 to 10 mph with occasionally higher gusts over most
of the area - though there are still some calmer pockets where
the boundary layer has remained decoupled. These spots have
temperatures down to the mid 30s while the rest of the area is
closer to the mid and upper 40s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running
in the dry low 20s most places. The winds and variable clouds
ahead of the front are keeping the frost concerns to a minimum
early this morning.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a pair of compact shortwaves
moving through the Ohio Valley to start this weekend with ample
mid level energy passing through eastern Kentucky early this
morning and then again later today - but kind of weak. 5h heights
rise in the wake of these minor waves before the energy of the
next stronger trough starts to work into the area on Sunday. This
later wave deepens and digs into the Upper Midwest by afternoon
with fast and slightly southwest mid level flow over the state. A
couple of impulses will zip by the area in this flow during the
day Sunday along with better height falls inbound for that
evening. The overall model spread aloft being small supported
using the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids through
the period. Did make some adjustments to incorporate more terrain
distinction in the temperatures tonight and also added some of
the latest CAMs guidance into the PoPs for Sunday.
Sensible weather features another breezy and dry day with
seasonably warm temperatures despite the passage of a cold front.
This boundary will keep the winds breezy as they switch more
northwesterly by afternoon. An increase in moisture due to the
front will keep humidities from bottoming out as low as those on
Friday afternoon. However, the values will still be sub 30
percent for much of the area and with the breezy winds warranted
another SPS for near critical fire weather conditions. For
tonight, some clearing and the winds settling should be enough for
a small ridge to valley temperature difference to develop as well
as a fair amount of frost formation - with a few spots seeing
temperatures down around freezing by dawn, Sunday. Clouds and
then shower chances move back into eastern Kentucky by Sunday
afternoon ahead of that next trough and its sfc clipper. There
looks to be enough instability available, at least in the
southwest parts of the area, for a few thunderstorms to develop
late in the afternoon. Later, Sunday evening, these could become
more organized and a concern for strengthening as the better
dynamics aloft work into the area from the west. This system seems
to be good for about a half an inch of rain through the area -
probably not enough to ease fire weather concerns for much more
than a day or so, though.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adjusting temperatures for terrain distinctions tonight. Did also
lower dewpoints in the afternoon today. As for PoPs, mainly beefed
them up with more timing and coverage details from the CAMs on
Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2025
The forecast period begins with a surface low diving out of southern
Canada into the Upper Plains. As this system tracks into the Great
Lakes, a trailing cold front will approach the Commonwealth and be
on the doorstep of the CWA by Sunday morning. Through the day
Sunday, increasing PoP chances are expected with thunderstorms
developing late Sunday afternoon and continuing through very early
Monday morning. The SPC has the far southwestern portion (Wayne
County) of the CWA under a Day 3 Marginal Risk for this cold front
and the potential severe weather associated with this front. The CWA
has seen the severe threat continue to shift southwest with the last
couple of daily SPC updates and no reason not to see that trend
continue as instability will be lacking with this boundary and the
severe weather risk appears really limited. However, can't rule out
a thunderstorm pushing severe limits. Once the front crosses through
the region early Monday afternoon, showers will taper off from west
to east as surface high pressure builds in from the west. More
seasonal temperatures will build back into the region beginning
Monday and continuing through the end of the forecast period. Also,
Models have come into a little better agreement with a clipper
system approaching the area for Tuesday. The GFS has jumped on board
with the trend and now the forecast is 30%-40% PoP for Tuesday
afternoon, 30%-40% overnight Tuesday and decreasing PoP for
Wednesday as high pressure returns to the forecast area. Once the
system exits late Wednesday, surface high pressure leading clear
skies and post-frontal CAA will build into the area allowing for
colder temperatures and the potential for widespread frost late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Surface high pressure
remains in place through the day Thursday before a warm front lifts
into the region bringing warmer temperatures and increased rain
chances for Friday.
Overall the period will be highlighted by several passing systems
that'll bring chances of rain and thunderstorms and a return to more
seasonal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
VFR was observed and issuance time and is expected to prevail
through the period while a dry cold front crosses eastern Kentucky
early this morning. As the front approaches, winds aloft will
increase sufficiently for southwesterly LLWS through 13Z at up to
40 kts. A generally southwest wind, at 5 to 8 kts early,
gradually increases through the night on account of some weak
mixing down of winds within the low-level jet aloft early this
morning. As frontal passage occurs around dawn, winds will become
more westerly and remain westerly through the afternoon with
speeds increasing to 10 to 15 kts along with gusts as high as 25
kts. There will be some potential reductions in winds and gusts
with a directional shift to more west-northwesterly after 22Z
today.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 4:50 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503220850-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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