LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 12:21 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...
003
FXUS64 KLIX 161721 AAB
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
...NEW AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
After perhaps at least one of the strongest historical tornado
outbreaks in our CWA (not by count but after surveys possibly by
intensity and path length) the forecast is generally quiet for the
next week. There will be some small rain chances but overall we
are looking at cool and dry conditions most days.
The trough axis will finally move through today with broad weak
ridging building in behind it and expected to become centered over
the MS Valley by Tuesday. The next disturbance will already be
working in out of the Pacific and approaching the Continental divide
by then. At the sfc it is fairly benign with high pressure building
in behind the cold front today and becoming centered over the LA
coast tonight and slowly sliding east towards the north-central Gulf
Monday night. This should help to provide chilly nights for this
time of the year with morning lows tomorrow morning about 5-10
degrees below normal and Tuesday morning about 3-5 degrees below
normal. Highs today could be a little tricky however. Currently
there is not a lot of cloud cover but as the sun comes up today with
the h85 thermal trough not expected to move over and east of the
area till late today if not this evening weak CAA may continue in
the LL. This many times can quickly lead to cold weather cu
developing with mostly cloudy skies however much drier air is moving
in and fcst sndgs show very little moisture to tap into to get those
clouds. With that we did bump up the fcst highs today a few degrees
to be more in line with the MOS number from. NBM just appeared to be
a little too cool with the highs. On the other hand tonight the NBM
is warmer than all of the MOS guidance and by a 2-3 degree in most
locations. However, the LL winds will remain in the 20-30kt range
all night. That promotes some mixing, even if the boundary layer
winds are able to decouple for a few hours. That said if the winds
at h925 and h85 are lighter than expected the the lows currently in
fcst will be too warm and possibly by 2-4 degrees, especially in the
typical cool spots like the river drainage areas and MCB. Currently
advertising a few spots in the upper 30s tonight across southwest Ms
and lower 40 down to I-12 but if things work in the wrong direction
lows could be more in the mid 30s to near 40 along and north of I-
10 and coastal MS.
High pressure continue to slide to the east Tuesday and we begin to
moderate before the next system late in the week. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Medium range models are in fairly good agreement. Pattern is
quiet progressive for the second half of the week with two system
moving across the central CONUS. Both will bring a cold front but
with limited moisture return both could be dry. Some isolated to
widely scattered light showers can't be ruled out but any real
appreciable rain is a far cry at this time. Both systems will be
accompanied by a weak cold front which will reinforce the slightly
below normal temps that we will see for the first half of the
week. That said Friday morning we did deviate from the NBM a
touch. Given how fast the system is late Wednesday high pressure
is already over top of the area Thursday evening and just to the
east by Friday morning. Conditions are setting up for a rather
favorable radiational cooling night and the NBM appears to be a
little on the warm side. The deterministic value is actually
slightly below the mean but still quite a few degrees warmer than
what the ECX and MEX are showing for Friday morning. With that we
did bump lows down only a degree or two but mainly wanted to get
this out there for anyone that has already planted things as frost
is not out of the question Friday morning. Biggest negative with
that would likely be rather dry BL conditions as dewpoints would
likely still be a few degrees lower than the morning lows. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
VFR conditions will prevail. The only concern will be gusty
northwesterly winds this afternoon with some gusts approaching 25
knots at times. Winds will begin to decrease quickly overnight and
for most terminals become light and variable, especially closer to
sunrise Monday. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Winds have slacked off over the coastal waters for now but this
will be short lived as a secondary cold front quickly works
through this morning. The reinforcement of offshore winds will
commence and pick up across all of the waters this morning. This
will lead to SCY conditions everywhere through today and into the
evening hours. Winds should start to quickly subside as tomorrow
as high pressure moves over top of the area. High pressure remains
in place through Tuesday until it slides to the east and return
flow sets back up. May have some brief SCA conditions on Wed ahead
of the next front. After the cold front moves through Wednesday
night/early Thursday SCY conditions are expected to redevelop with
the re-establishment of offshore flow. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 39 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 71 42 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 73 43 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 72 50 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 72 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 75 41 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 12:21 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503161721-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX-AAB)
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