CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 3:46 PM EDT
826
FXUS61 KCLE 211946
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
346 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drops southeast across the area Saturday morning.
After brief high pressure Saturday night, low pressure tracks
into the northern Great Lakes on Sunday with an accompanying
cold front crossing the local area Sunday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery reveals a complex trough digging over the
central U.S., with one shortwave/vort max currently over eastern
NE and pushing east into IA. Another shortwave (with a strong
accompanying cold front and airmass change) is dropping
southeast into the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. These
features will bring a brief period of unsettled weather on
Saturday, followed by another quick hit of seasonably chilly air
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Clouds will gradually thicken and lower overnight tonight, with
brisk southwest winds struggling to decouple and helping to keep
temperatures much milder than last night. Have lows ranging from
the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Both of the aforementioned shortwaves and strong cold front will
work across the area rather quickly Saturday morning, with high
pressure quickly building in from the west late Saturday into
Saturday night. There will be a few things to focus on for
precip potential/POPs late tonight through Saturday afternoon.
An initial wave of mid-level warm air advection/isentropic lift
will lift east-northeast across our area after midnight. Dry
low-levels and the rather weak nature of the lift makes it very
questionable if any measurable rain accompanies this feature
between about 12 AM and 5 AM tonight. There will be another push
of better lift (with more saturated low-levels) from west to
east after 4 or 5 AM with the lead shortwave coming east out of
the central U.S., with greater potential for scattered showers.
This will be quickly followed by the shortwave and strong cold
front dropping southeast out of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
after roughly 8 AM, with numerous to widespread showers likely
to accompany this feature, particularly from Sandusky-Mount
Gilead points east. Synoptic lift quickly exits to the east-
southeast Saturday afternoon, though lingering low-level
cyclonic flow and 850mb temperatures cratering to -10 to -13C
over Lake Erie could allow some lake enhanced precip to continue
through early Saturday evening before ridging and much drier
air really start pressing in. Dry weather and clearing skies are
then expected for the rest of Saturday night.
The forcing and moisture align best across Northeast OH and
Northwest PA on Saturday, with much lower confidence in precip
out west towards the I-75 corridor. Have categorical (80-100%)
POPs in from Lorain-Wooster points east, with likely (60-70%)
POPs as far west as Sandusky-Mt Gilead, dropping off to 30%
along I-75. QPF amounts are under 0.25" (and for a large
majority under 0.10"), highest across the higher terrain of
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Precip will initially fall in the
form of rain, though strong cold air advection will allow it to
mix with/change to a bit of snow before ending across parts of
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Not looking for more than a
slushy coating on non-paved surface at most. Mid-level lapse
rates steepen to around 8C/km Saturday morning as a -30C 500mb
cold pool moves overhead, which could allow for a little bit of
upright instability to develop. This could allow some showers
(especially along the cold front) to have a bit of a convective
component Saturday morning, perhaps producing a bit of graupel
or very small hail. Did not add thunder to the forecast, but a
stray rumble wouldn't be the most shocking thing ever along or
just ahead of the cold front from extreme eastern OH into PA. A
brief push of wind gusts over 30 MPH is likely just behind the
cold front Saturday morning and early afternoon.
Morning highs on Saturday should reach the low to mid 40s, with
very strong cold air advection causing falling temperatures late
in the morning through the afternoon. Lows Saturday night should
get well into the 20s for much of the area, with a few 10s even
possible in the higher terrain east of I-79 in Northwest PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The next low pressure system with a digging upper low into the Great
Lakes arrives Sunday, looking more and more like it will have a warm
front and a very brief residence time in a modest warm sector prior
to cold frontal passage. POPs reintroduced after 15Z over the far
southwestern zones over the CWA. Showers at first but in the far
eastern zones possibly a rain/snow mix at the onset, temperatures a
touch warmer Sunday than Saturday back towards the 50F mark in some
places, and then the trailing cold front tracks through 00Z Monday
into early Monday night. This will be another system making an
expeditious exit, but the trailing upper low through the Great Lakes
region will sling low level moisture back into the CWA from the
north with rain showers late Monday and transitioning to rain/snow
showers early Monday night. No accumulation expected, but
temperatures down to around freezing or just below.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep 500mb trough now over the Great Lakes region. 700mb trough axis
tracks down into the Ohio Valley with weak cyclogenesis along with
the tail end of another weak cold front moving into Lake Erie from
the north. Bulk of the POPs from the feature to the south should
remain south of our CWA border, and not much moisture to work with
or low level f-gen from the cold front, so the slight chance POPs
are not expected to produce much Tuesday into Tuesday night if
anything at all. Chilly high pressure for the middle to the end of
the week before a Friday warm front arrives with perhaps some
warming into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
An upper-level disturbance and cold front will move southeast
across the area Saturday morning. In the meantime, VFR and clear
skies below 12,000 feet continue this afternoon and will
continue through a good portion of tonight. Showers are most
likely Saturday morning at CLE, CAK, YNG and ERI and are likely
enough at MFD as well, with timing generally between 11-17z from
west-northwest to east-southeast. MVFR vsby is likely with some
more moderate showers and included in a TEMPO at all of those
sites...rain may change to a bit of snow before ending,
especially at ERI and YNG, which could bring brief IFR vsby.
Continued to handle any showers and vsby restrictions with
PROB30 groups at TOL and FDY due to lower confidence farther
west. Ceilings will fall to 5000 feet or lower ahead of the cold
front early Saturday and to MVFR along and just behind the cold
front Saturday morning...before bouncing back to VFR from west
to east Saturday afternoon and evening.
Winds will remain southwesterly at 10 to 18 knots with some
gusts to around 25 knots ahead of the front. Gusts will likely
lull at times tonight. Maintained low-level wind shear at all
sites for a period tonight, though adjusted timing a bit at some
sites. Targeted when the strongest low-level jet will be
overhead for the low-level wind shear, as forecast soundings
suggest a modest inversion in the lowest 2000 feet between
relatively lighter SSW surface flow and ~50kt SW flow at 2000
feet when the strongest jet is overhead at all sites. Winds will
veer northwesterly at 12 to 18 knots with continued 20-30kt
gusts behind the cold front Saturday.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely in widespread rain late Sunday into
Monday. Non-VFR is possible in lingering rain and/or snow
showers Monday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds increase to 15-25kts tonight, turning northwesterly
as a cold front comes through 15-25kts and a Small Craft Advisory
now in effect for much of Saturday. Winds become variable Saturday
night, then southeasterly 10-15kts Sunday with another cold front
coming through Sunday night. Wave heights less than 2ft early
Sunday will increase away from shore Sunday afternoon, then approach
Small Craft Advisory again Sunday night in the wake of the next cold
front with wave heights back to 3-5ft.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...26
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 21, 3:46 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503211946-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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