ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 1:43 PM EDT
027
FXUS61 KILN 201743
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
143 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region today. High pressure will
track across the area on Friday followed by another cold front late
Friday night into Saturday morning. A stronger system will affect the
area on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made some minor adjustments to temps over the next 24-36 hours and
tried to highlight the precip coincident with the cold front that is
currently bisecting the CWA from sw to ne and roughly nw of the I-71
corridor. Temperatures will remain steady to the se of this front
where a decent sw wind keeps advecting in somewhat warmer air.
There's roughly a 10 degree difference in the air just se and nw of
the front, and readings will not fall until the front crosses. Once
it does, temperatures in the lower 40s in se CWA will quickly dive to
meet the 30s that are currently in our northwest. Not too long after
about 5:00, readings across the region will drop to the mid 30s
(near 30 north and west of metro Dayton). Then, a traditional slow
but steady drop in temps will see the region's mins between 25 and 30
degrees. A continued light wind overnight will make temperatures
feel closer to 20 degrees.
Sky cover will break up relatively quickly late today and this
evening, becoming cloud-free after midnight. Before cloud cover
break up later today, the cold air behind the front will create an
environment that should promote widely scattered showers. These
showers will be primarily rain, but snow may mix in at times,
especially in the nw 1/3 of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The high pressure axis will slide southeast of the area on Friday
with southwest winds increasing. In addition, high clouds will spread
into the area in advance of the next system.
Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s tonight with
readings rebounding back to normal, in the lower to mid 50s, for
Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A quick moving shortwave moves into the lower Great Lakes Friday
night, increasing the chance for breezy conditions and a few rain
showers. The highest chances are limited to northern portions of the
area, primarily across eastern Indiana, western & central Ohio. The
shortwave moves off to the east Saturday afternoon, with weak high
pressure building in. Temperatures Saturday are coolest across the
aforementioned areas, given the additional cloud cover and rainfall
chances. Temperatures across the south may still be a few degrees
above normals (mid 50s).
A short-lived dry stretch is expected Saturday afternoon through
early Sunday morning as a stronger system builds over the lower Ohio
Valley and northern Great Plains. As the parent surface low pressure
moves into the Midwest Sunday morning, a powerful low-level jet will
drive positive theta-e advection across the Ohio, supporting
widespread showers and even some thunderstorms. Surface based
thunderstorms become possible Sunday afternoon, but the most
favorable warm sector is likely to be displaced southeast of the
local area around the optimal time. This would indicate a limited
severe threat at this time.
The low pressure slides eastward through the Great Lakes Sunday
night with northwesterly flow providing more clouds and perhaps a
few showers across the area Monday afternoon. The area will see
another round of 25 to 35 mph wind gusts Monday afternoon as the low
pressure continues to weaken and move away.
The region is locked into deep northwesterly flow for the remainder
of the long term. Temperatures remain near normals in the south
(Ohio River), but cooler than normal generally north of the river.
Chances for showers continue to be mentioned in the forecast as weak
shortwave disturbances move through the persistent northwesterly
flow.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In the next hour, CMH/LCK will switch from sw-ne, maintaining a
fairly uniform nw wind 15g25kt as is found over the remaining
terminals this afternoon.
Ceilings will primarily be higher end MVFR and break up between
01Z-04Z, earliest at DAY and lastly at CMH/LCK. Widely scattered
shower activity should dissipate 20Z-22Z and remain VFR. A vsby
obstruction 3-5sm is a possibility if a shower hits DAY and is mixed
with or entirely snow. Otherwise, these showers should be primarily
rain and with minimal impact on aviation.
Sky cover will break up by midnight and winds will begin to relax and
lose most gustiness. Not until a few hours before daybreak will the
winds switch to ssw and drop to under 5kt. Used variable in CMH/LCK
with a switch to sw at 9kt in the morning. Other sites kept a lower
speed around 5kt from 280 for the latter overnight period and then
turn to 220 and increase to 10-15kt in the morning.
VFR ceilings will spread across the entire region early in the
period. Southwest winds will begin to gust during this time as well.
Ceilings will lower to MVFR, with many locations likely falling below
2kft for a period of time.
OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings are possible on Saturday with MVFR ceilings
and visibilities likely on Sunday. Wind gusts in at or above 30 kt
are possible Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Franks
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 1:43 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503201743-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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