MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 4:05 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...
393
FXUS64 KMOB 190905
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
405 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Today through Thursday night...
Upper trof over the central US translates eastward later today. An
upper level (200-300mb) 120-140 kt jet streak ejects east northeast
at the base of the trof across the Red River Valley of TX/OK to up
across the Mid MS River Valley by the close of the afternoon and
into the evening. At same time, a cold front will be approaching
from the west. Out ahead of the front, the high resolution guidance
suggests a slight chance of afternoon showers over the western
zones, within a ribbon of Gulf moisture that begins spreading
northeast from off the LA coast to the TN Valley. Highs this
afternoon to warm into the upper 70's/lower 80's over the interior
to the mid 70's coast. Tonight, the guidance supports a fairly fast
eastward motion to showers with PoPs generally 30-50%. Mixed in
could be some rumbles of thunder, but with the low degree of
instability, will keep these isolated. Chances of severe weather
low. Following the frontal passage, winds switch northwest late in
the night with chances of rain ending with the front's passage. High
pressure builds in from the west on Thursday bringing drier and
cooler conditions. Will start the day Thursday in the mid 40's
northwest zones to mid 50's southeast zones. Highs 58 to 63 interior
to mid 60's coast. With high pressure moving overhead Thursday
night, a colder night on tap and will likely see the formation of
late night frost, especially over the interior. A frost advisory
will likely be required on the next shift since we are moving into
the start of the growing season and sensitive garden vegetables will
need a layer of protection. A moderate risk of rip currents
remains in place through Thursday night. /10
Friday through Tuesday...
High pressure centered over the Gulf coast region early on Friday
will slide off to the east of the area through late Saturday. A
weak frontal boundary drops down into the southeast on Saturday
night into Sunday, then becomes stationary. No precip is
anticipated Friday through most of Sunday. By late Sunday
afternoon another frontal boundary that is extending southward
from a low pressure area over the Great Lakes will be approach
the area from the west, and this front will move east across our
area Sunday night into early Monday morning. A shortwave trough in
the mid/upper flow will move out of the plains and intensify a low
level jet over Arkansas during the day on Sunday, and there could
be some strong to locally severe storms along the front well to
our west late Sunday. The low level jet weaken somewhat overnight
as it moves east across our area, but will still be supportive of
some thunderstorms as the front moves east across our area, but
for now it appears that severe chances over our area will be low.
We will continue to monitor this over the next several days and
accordingly make any adjustments necessary. Drier conditions
return late Monday through Tuesday in the wake of the front.
Daytime highs will mainly be in the mid to upper 60s across most
of the area on Friday, but in the 70s for the remainder of the
period. With the frontal passages, overnight lows will vary
somewhat from night to night. Lows Friday night mainly in the 40s
except low 50s at the coast, warming into the mid 40s to mid 50s
Saturday night, and into the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday night as
southerly flow picks up just in advance of the passing front.
Cooler again Monday night in the wake of the front, with lows
ranging from the mid 40s over most inland areas, to the upper 40s
to mid 50s closer to and along the coast. DS/12
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
May be some patchy vsby to 3 to 5 miles in BR by daybreak, but
appears this will be isolated in coverage and perhaps more focused
over south central AL, interior NW FL Panhandle. For now, TAF sites
CIG/VSBY ok in the near term. Clouds will begin to increase from
west to east later today with a few to scattered MVFR CIGS. A better
chance of -shra by and after 20.00Z. /10
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
A strong cold frontal passage late tonight brings strengthening
offshore flow and building seas. Small Craft Advisories are now
in effect. Advisory conditions may taper over a portion of the
bays and sounds by mid morning Thursday, but likely to continue
into Thursday evening over the open Gulf waters. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 78 49 64 37 67 47 77 53 / 20 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 74 55 64 41 64 50 73 56 / 10 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 73 56 66 44 64 51 71 57 / 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 82 48 62 33 69 41 77 46 / 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 81 44 61 33 70 44 77 50 / 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 79 47 58 33 67 43 75 48 / 10 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 79 52 65 34 69 41 77 47 / 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ631-
632.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-
655-670-675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 4:05 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503190905-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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