PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 5:22 AM EDT
926
FXUS61 KPBZ 200922
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
522 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers today with colder air this afternoon. Cooler
temperatures, around average, for the end of the week into the
weekend. A weak low pressure system is expected to move through
the area on Saturday bringing light showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Light rain ahead of a cold front.
- Colder air moves in this afternoon.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A cold front will move through the region late this morning and
early this afternoon. Scattered rain are expected ahead of the
front. Much colder air will move in behind the front this
afternoon, causing falling temperatures. Scattered rain/snow
showers are possible late this afternoon with the cold air
advection.
A tight surface pressure gradient, and stronger winds aloft
mixing down to the surface, will provide gusty winds across the
area throughout the day.
High temperatures today will occur ahead of the front as we
quickly fall back toward seasonal values.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
- Snow showers tonight for higher elevations.
- Dry and seasonable Friday.
- A weak disturbance will bring a chance of light showers on Saturday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Scattered snow showers are expected to continue over the higher
elevations tonight in the northwest flow and continued cold air
advection.
A ridge will move into the region Friday returning quiet
weather and seasonable temperatures.
Fast moving trough moves through Saturday with chance of
precipitation with limited moisture. The 75th percentile
precipitation accumulation is expected to be up to 0.10-0.15 inches
across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- High pressure will keep conditions dry on Sunday.
- Strong trough brings more significant shower chances Monday.
- Below average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A progressive pattern with series of fast moving troughs across
CONUS will bring changeable weather in the extended.
After a quiet day Sunday, a strong upper level trough is
expected to move into the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday
bringing another chance of precipitation. There is a 40%-60%
chance for total rainfall accumulation to exceed 0.3 inches.
As the low pressure system moves out of the area, expect cooler
temperatures (slightly below average) to settle into the area. Highs
in the upper-40s and lower-50s are expected through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A band of light showers will overspread the area from W-E
through early morning with the approach of a cold front. With
dry air in place, expect cigs and vsbys to remain mainly VFR
with these showers, as erosion of the dry air occurs. A low
level jet in place will maintain LLWS for most airports through
early morning, though did not include a mention of this at sites
(with higher elevations) that will see gusts to the surface,
rather than LLWS. An outflow boundary from earlier
showers/storms to the west will also move across the area early
this morning, bringing a brief, gusty WSHFT to the W.
The cold front is progged to cross the Upper Ohio Valley region
from W-E this morning through mid afternoon. Expect a WSHFT to
the WSW, and MVFR cigs overspreading the region after FROPA.
Scattered rain and snow showers are expected from mid afternoon
into the evening as an upper trough crosses the region behind
the surface front. Wind will remain gusty (up to 25kt), but
shift to the NW through the evening.
Outlook...
VFR is expected to return Friday under high pressure.
Restriction potential and rain showers return with a Saturday
cold front. High pressure returns VFR Saturday night and early
Sunday before low pressure brings rain and restriction potential
Sunday afternoon through Monday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Friday for
WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22/Lupo
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22/Lupo
AVIATION...WM
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 5:22 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503200922-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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