ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 6:56 AM EDT
392
FXUS61 KILN 201056
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
656 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region today. High pressure will
track across the area on Friday followed by another cold front late
Friday night into Saturday morning. A stronger system will affect the
area on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The break between the clouds from the departing system overnight and
clouds spreading in with the approaching upper system has been
narrowing. The clouds will spread across the entire area by mid
morning.
The upper system will push a cold front across the region from late
morning into mid afternoon. Showers will be developing along the
front while moving through the area, so the chance of rain will be
greatest to the south and east of I-71. In the wake of the front,
there will be a brief lull in precipitation before additional showers
develop and affect the area in conjunction with the upper system.
Better coverage of this activity will be from west central Ohio into
central Ohio. With cold air advection, there is the potential for
rain to mix with snow late in the day.
Winds will increase and become gusty this morning with winds
strengthening further once the cold front passes. Highs will be in
the morning with temperatures falling after frontal passage.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Scattered rain and snow showers will still be ongoing to start the
period but then rapidly wane early this evening. Winds gusts will
also diminish early in the period, but sustained winds will be slower
to decrease tonight when the pressure gradient relaxes as an axis of
high pressure builds in. This will also result in decreasing
cloudiness.
The high pressure axis will slide southeast of the area on Friday
with southwest winds increasing. In addition, high clouds will spread
into the area in advance of the next system.
Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s tonight with
readings rebounding back to normal, in the lower to mid 50s, for
Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A quick moving shortwave moves into the lower Great Lakes Friday
night, increasing the chance for breezy conditions and a few rain
showers. The highest chances are limited to northern portions of the
area, primarily across eastern Indiana, western & central Ohio. The
shortwave moves off to the east Saturday afternoon, with weak high
pressure building in. Temperatures Saturday are coolest across the
aforementioned areas, given the additional cloud cover and rainfall
chances. Temperatures across the south may still be a few degrees
above normals (mid 50s).
A short-lived dry stretch is expected Saturday afternoon through
early Sunday morning as a stronger system builds over the lower Ohio
Valley and northern Great Plains. As the parent surface low pressure
moves into the Midwest Sunday morning, a powerful low-level jet will
drive positive theta-e advection across the Ohio, supporting
widespread showers and even some thunderstorms. Surface based
thunderstorms become possible Sunday afternoon, but the most
favorable warm sector is likely to be displaced southeast of the
local area around the optimal time. This would indicate a limited
severe threat at this time.
The low pressure slides eastward through the Great Lakes Sunday
night with northwesterly flow providing more clouds and perhaps a
few showers across the area Monday afternoon. The area will see
another round of 25 to 35 mph wind gusts Monday afternoon as the low
pressure continues to weaken and move away.
The region is locked into deep northwesterly flow for the remainder
of the long term. Temperatures remain near normals in the south
(Ohio River), but cooler than normal generally north of the river.
Chances for showers continue to be mentioned in the forecast as weak
shortwave disturbances move through the persistent northwesterly
flow.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR ceilings will spread across the entire region early in the
period. Southwest winds will begin to gust during this time as well.
Ceilings will lower to MVFR, with many locations likely falling below
2kft for a period of time.
A cold front will move across the terminals between 15Z and 18Z.
Showers will be developing along this boundary. The winds will
only slightly veer and strengthen initially, but slightly further
increase in speeds as well as veering will occur after 20Z. Some
additional scattered showers will occur as well.
Ceilings will lift VFR and then scatter after 00Z. Wind gusts will
diminish around or slightly after 00Z with sustained speeds lowering
in the latter part of the TAF period.
OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings are possible on Saturday with MVFR ceilings
and visibilities likely on Sunday. Wind gusts in at or above 30 kt
are possible Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 20, 6:56 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503201056-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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