PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 2:19 PM EDT
928
FXUS61 KPBZ 191819
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
219 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm today with strong gusty winds this afternoon. Rain
showers are expected tomorrow ahead of a cold front. Cooler
temperatures, around average, for the end of the week into the
weekend. A weaker low pressure system expected to move through
the area on Saturday bringing light showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warmer.
- Fire weather conditions.
- Rain chances return early tomorrow morning.
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A tightening surface pressure gradient and increased mixing will
result in strong gusty southerly winds this afternoon. NBM probs of
gusts > 30 mph are close to 100% across most of Ohio and the
northern West Virginia panhandle with 60%-90% probabilities across
Western Pennsylvania and portions of northern West Virginia.
Probabilities of MaxT > 80F are generally 30% to 50% in lower
elevation portions of northern WV and probabilities > 75F are close
to 40% to 90% south of US-22 and I-76. Dew points are expected to
remain low with persistent dry conditions through the evening.
The combination of very dry air, above normal temperature, dry fuels
and gusty wind led to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for
portions of eastern Ohio and the northern WV panhandle through this
evening when surface fuels are driest. An SPS highlighting higher
wildfire risks also remains in effect for the rest of the forecast
area where weather conditions are favorable for wildfire spread, but
surface fuels remain marginal.
A shortwave trough will move across Ohio later tonight. As the wave
drifts eastward, it will weaken as much of the energy will be used
to break down the eastern ridge along with the loss of moisture due
to the effects of the very dry atmosphere currently in place. The
initial shot of showers early tomorrow morning will be scattered and
light.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
- Rain chances return late tonight.
- Rain Thursday ahead of a cold front.
- Colder air moves in Thursday afternoon.
- Snow showers Thursday night for higher elevations.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A cold front will move through late Thursday afternoon bringing
light precipitation and much colder air. Atmosphere should get cold
enough to support scattered snow showers across the region starting
tomorrow evening.
Snow showers are expected to continue over the higher elevations
Thursday night due to northwest flow creating lift against the
ridges.
On Friday, a ridge will move into the region bringing quiet weather
and seasonable temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A weak disturbance will bring a chance of light showers on
Saturday.
- High pressure will keep conditions dry on Sunday.
- Strong trough brings more significant shower chances Monday.
- Below average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A progressive pattern with series of fast moving troughs across
CONUS will bring changeable weather in the extended.
Fast moving trough moves through Saturday with chance of
precipitation with limited moisture. The 75th percentile
precipitation accumulation is expected to be up to 0.10-0.15 inches
across the region.
After another quiet day Sunday, a strong upper level trough is
expected to move into the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday
bringing another chance of precipitation. There is a 40%-60% chance
for total rainfall accumulation to exceed 0.3 inches.
As the low pressure system moves out of the area, expect cooler
temperatures (slightly below average) to settle into the area. Highs
in the upper-40s and lower-50s are expected through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR favored through majority of TAF period, with restriction
potential increasing at the end/after the TAF period with the
approach of a cold front.
Deep mixing and a strengthening pressure gradient will maintain
S to SSW wind gusts between 25 to 30kts this afternoon before
loss of peak heating allows wind decoupling for most terminals.
As the nocturnal llvl jet increases, expect llws to develop at
all sites or periods where the inversion breaks and gusty wind
reaches the surface.
A narrow and light band of rain showers ahead of a mid-level
warm front will cross between 08z-16z with low probability for
vis restrictions (less than 10% for less than 5 miles) and
lowering decks to 3.5kft - 5kft. Dry and subsidence will create
a break between this line and the next round of rain later
Thursday with the cold front.
Outlook...
The passage of a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening will
bring increased MVFR potential (40-70%) as well as scattered
rain showers than transition to snow as they dissipate in
coverage overnight. Gusty southwest wind between 25 to 35 kts
ahead of the front is expected to quickly veer west to northwest
and gust between 20 to 30kts.
Dry weather and VFR under the influence of high pressure is
favored Friday (high confidence).
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>511.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lupo
NEAR TERM...22/Frazier/Lupo
SHORT TERM...22/Lupo
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...Frazier
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 2:19 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503191819-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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