CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 1:17 PM EDT
801
FXUS61 KCLE 191717
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
117 PM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move east across the Lower Great Lakes
today, extending a cold front east through the area on Thursday.
High pressure will briefly return on Friday, followed by a series of
low pressure systems and cold fronts for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
905 AM Update...
No major changes to the immediate term forecast over the next 8
hours. Minor temperature changes, but still looking at another
warm day, probably the best in terms of temperatures for the
foreseeable future. Dry through 22Z.
Previous Discussion...
An active near term period is in store with elevated fire spread
conditions this afternoon and evening, a low potential for damaging
wind gusts late this evening, and even some snow chances returning
across the area by late Thursday.
Main concern this afternoon and early evening will be the potential
for an elevated risk of fire spread, mainly along and east of the I-
77 corridor. Joint probabilities for Red Flag conditions (wind
speeds > 15 mph & RH values < 25%) have increased slightly over
previous HREF runs, although fuel moisture still remains fairly
marginal (11 to 15%) and precludes the need for a Red Flag Warning
at this time. Areawide, winds will increase out of the south later
this morning and afternoon, with periodic gusts of 35 to perhaps 40
mph at times as a potent low pressure system deepens across the
vicinity of IA/IL/MO.
A line of convection is expected to develop along a pre-frontal
trough axis across IL/IN later this afternoon, and move eastward
through the evening, reaching the I-75 corridor by around 11 PM to
midnight. Recent HREF runs have trended slightly more in favor of a
low-end damaging wind threat across the Toledo/Findlay areas (wind
gusts 50 to 60 mph), evident by the eastward expansion of the SPC
SWODY1 marginal risk. The threat for any damaging winds is expected
to quickly decrease further east near the I-71 corridor as
instability wanes, though still could see some sporadic 40 to 50 mph
gusts with the line of showers given strong 40 to 50-knot low-level
flow above the surface.
A brief lull in precipitation is possible Thursday morning before
the cold front and associated wrap-around moisture arrive Thursday
afternoon and evening. A rush of colder air aloft behind the front
Thursday evening, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling
around -8 to -10 degrees C, will quickly transition rain to a
rain/snow mix and perhaps all snow at times from west to east across
the area. Snow amounts should be negligible given the
initially-warn ground conditions.
Above average temperatures are expected today, with highs in the low
to mid-70s. Could get close to a few record highs at some spots out
east this afternoon, particularly at CLE/ERI where temperatures
typically overperform in this type of regime.
Temperatures will fall sharply behind the cold front on Thursday,
with 40s and 50s in the morning and early afternoon falling into the
30s by sunset.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level trough axis overhead at 00Z/Fri moves eastward of the
area late Thursday night. Precipitation is likely transitioning to
all snow Thursday night, with minor snow accumulations of a half
inch or less possible downwind of Lake Erie, especially in the
higher terrain areas of the snowbelt. Precipitation should quickly
end as high pressure builds back in Friday, with sunny skies
areawide throughout the day. With temperatures warming back up to
around 50, should be a pleasant spring day. By Saturday, an upper-
level trough move southeast across the Great Lakes region, with
light, scattered rain showers expected during the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in by Sunday with near normal temperatures
expected, although a few models have easterly flow which could
result in sneaky chilly conditions for near Lake Erie, especially
the Toledo area. The next low pressure system arrives Sunday night,
with periods of rain showers expected Sunday night through Monday.
Large-scale trough remains parked over the Great Lakes region, which
will result in general cloudy/showery conditions with temperatures a
touch below normal Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Strengthening low pressure system moving northeastward from the
mid Mississippi Valley into the central Great Lakes bringing
increases in winds today, and then a line of convection later
this evening into tonight ahead of a cold front moving west to
east through the region. Gusts 25-35kts should be expected
through at least the first 12 hours of the TAF, especially with
the line of showers/storms. That line will enter the area from
the west around 02Z with some visibility restrictions and
briefly enhanced wind gusts. Further in the east, prior to the
convection that will likely be decaying as it moves through, an
inversion forms off the surface and should stop the gusts for a
time. This necessitates the re-introduction of LLWS for many of
the eastern terminals until the showers move in later in the
overnight period and towards morning. Once the cold front moves
through, ceilings pop back up to FL060 for a few hours, then
with a trailing surface/upper level trough, ceilings down to
MVFR with -SHRA moving in. Winds still gusty through the
remainder of the TAF for all terminals, now turning
southwesterly to northwesterly late.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely early Thursday evening to early
Thursday night as rain transitions to snow. Non-VFR may return
in rain showers early Saturday. Non-VFR likely to return in
widespread rain late Sunday into Sunday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds will be on the rise today, especially in the western
basin. There have already been a few isolated observations of 20
knot winds, so confidence has increased in a 15-25 knot southerly
wind late this morning through the afternoon, with gusts as high as
35 knots. A small craft advisory has been issued for 13-00Z today
for nearshore zones west of Geneva-on-the-Lake, though isolated
instances of 20 knot winds east of there could be possible. A bit of
a lull is expected tonight before a cold front moves through,
resulting in a shift to northwest winds of 20-25 knots Thursday and
Thursday night. Confidence is high that a small craft advisory will
be needed for this period.
High pressure builds back in on Friday, followed by another system
on Saturday. A similar wind pattern is expected with southwest winds
of 15-20 knots Friday night followed by northwest winds of 15-25
knots on Saturday and Saturday evening. And once again, high
pressure builds back in on Sunday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ142>147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/26
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Saunders
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 1:17 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503191717-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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