JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 4:01 AM EDT
397
FXUS63 KJKL 190801
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
401 AM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winds will increase late this morning into the afternoon, with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible.
- Wildfire danger increases, with dry weather and increased wind.
- A cold front will bring showers for most places tonight,
followed be a sharp temperature drop for tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
Today, dry weather continues with strong southerly winds continuing.
South winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph are possible, with a
strong low level jet across the area mid-morning through the
afternoon. Temperatures have been adjusted up above NBM guidance,
blending in the 75th percentile of the NBM. This was done to achieve
warmer temperatures due to stern southerly winds advecting in warm
air, along with breaks of sun and clouds, particularly across extreme
eastern Kentucky. As such, highs are forecasted in the upper 70s to
low 80s, with any 80s likely occurring from West Liberty-Jackson-
Hazard, east to the KY/WV boarder. With warm temperatures and strong
southerly winds, humidity will drop through the day. Critical fire
weather conditions will likely be met anywhere from Lee down to Bell
counties and over to the KY/WV boarder. Relative humidity
percentages can drop as low as 15-20 percent in these areas, while
having 20 foot winds above 15 mph, as such Red Flag Warnings have
been issued by previous shifts. Winds gusts from Wayne to Whitley up
to Jackson and Rockcastle could reach as high as 40 mph. As such a
Wind Advisory was also issued for those areas.
This afternoon a strong upper level low approaches the Missouri
Valley/Corn Belt area of western Nebraska and southern Iowa. This
low will have a cold front moving through western and central
Kentucky later this afternoon, arriving in eastern Kentucky likely
after sunset. Rain showers will develop from west to east closer to
midnight and continue through Thursday. Most areas will see a
quarter inch or less of rainfall, with locally higher amounts.
Because of the timing of the systems frontal passage across eastern
Kentucky, instability will be more limited than what will be
available today across western and central Kentucky. Probability of
thunder was marginal, and agreed with previous shifts with keeping
the mention of it out of the forecast for the above reasons. That
said, the Storm Prediction Center does have the I-64 corridor and
north under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. These storms
may have little lightning, with the main threat being wind. Lows
Wednesday night will generally range in the 40s, with lower 40s
west, approaching 50 near the KY/WV boarder.
Thursday, much cooler conditions expected with continued light rain
showers. Some areas may only rise 4-6 degrees from their morning
lows, with highs in the upper 40s in the west to mid 50s in the
west. Winds will be southwesterly early, becoming westerly,
continuing to veer to a northwesterly wind by nightfall.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2025
The models are in good agreement with an upper level trough swinging
into the Ohio Valley. A cold front is slated to cross Kentucky early
Thursday. This front will usher in much cooler weather Thursday,
with highs in the in the low to upper 40s from west to east. Most of
the area will see highs early in the day with falling temperatures
into the upper 30s to lower 40s by the afternoon. There is good
agreement on wrap around moisture with this system and this will
mix some of the precipitation over to rain and/or snow from the
higher terrain nearer the Virginia border. This could lead to some
minor accumulations on mainly elevated and grassy surfaces mainly
above 2000 feet around the Virginia border, but not expecting any
impacts from this given the warm ground temperatures.
Thursday night into Friday, there is good agreement in the ensemble
and model suites for high pressure at the surface in the Gulf Coast
to nose northward into the Ohio Valley. In the mid-level, we will
see shortwave ridging set up across the Ohio Valley. This will lead
to clearing skies and quiet weather through the portion of the
period. The return flow will also lead to temperatures climbing back
closer to normal for this time of year.
Friday night into Saturday, we will see a mid-level shortwave
approach from the west and push across the Ohio Valley. There are
some timing differences with this wave as well a moisture return
differences. Either way biggest issue here remains the lack of
moisture, with most ensembles keeping PWAT values below 0.50. Given
this PoPs have been capped at around the 20-30 percent chance range
for this feature and mainly north of the Hal Rogers Parkway.
Going forward from here, we remain near normal for the temperature
through the period. There is a bit more divergence on the next storm
system slated to push into the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday.
However, the 00z ensembles already showing a 50 to 60 percent chance
of greater than quarter of an inch of rain from 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM
Monday. Therefore, the latest NBM data gave in to categorical
PoPs for Sunday night. There could be yet another disturbance on
Tuesday as we get into more cyclonic flow underneath the larger
upper level low placed across the Ohio Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
A low level jet strengthens across the area ahead of the next
storm system. This will lead to LLWS from the south at around 40
kts for all terminals through 13Z Wednesday. Then, by late
morning, expect winds to begin mixing out of the south at 10-15
knots, with gusts of 25-35 knots during the afternoon hours. Rain
will start moving into area likely anytime between 03 and 06Z
Thursday, continuing over night and into the day Thursday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening
for KYZ068-069-079-080-083>085.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
evening for KYZ086>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF/GINNICK
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 19, 4:01 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503190801-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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