JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 18, 3:25 PM EDT
971
FXUS63 KJKL 181925
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winds will increase late tomorrow morning into the afternoon,
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible.
- Wildfire danger increases tomorrow, with dry weather and
increased wind.
- A cold front will bring showers for most places Wednesday night,
followed be a sharp temperature drop.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2025
The latest surface analysis shows high pressure parked near the
gulf coast and some what of a gradient setting up across Kentucky.
The mid-levels indicate ridging pushing northeastward across the
Ohio Valley. This will keep the weather quiet through the short
term period. Tonight, we will see a bit of a ridge valley split
set up with decent inversion in the east, with lows in the low to
mid 40s in most cases. Outside of these deeper valleys expect
lows to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s tonight under mostly
clear skies.
The low level jet will increase tonight into Wednesday in response
to the next storm system. The guidance suggest a sharp cut off on
stronger winds mixing down, with HREF showing highest
probabilities on the higher terrain and perhaps mainly west of
I-75. This seems to align well with the placement of the
strengthening low level jet. Given this opted to go with a Wind
Advisory for mainly the Cumberland Valley region along and west of
I-75. This can be reevaluated in subsequent shifts to see if this
will be expanded eastward. The other concern to look at tomorrow
is fire weather in the far east. This is where you have RH values
forecast to drop below 25 percent, fuels close to thresholds and
gusty winds out of the south. The issue is can we get the
sustained winds that far east. Given some uncertainty opted to go
with a SPS to cover fire weather concerns for now, but may need
further headlines depending on forecast trends. The drier weather
in the east will lead to warm temperatures, with highs near 80
degrees if not exceeding 80 degrees. Opted to increase afternoon
highs above the NBM, but could see needing to go further given
the potential for downslope flow.
The aforementioned storm system to the west will progress into the
Ohio Valley Wednesday night. This as a low pressure deepens and
pushes northeast into the Great Lakes region and sends a cold
front across Kentucky. This will result in a line of showers
pushing east across the state and eventually across eastern
Kentucky through the night Wednesday. Opted to drop any thunder
mention for now given the big drop off in instability through the
evening and night. Overall most locations will see a quarter of an
inch or less, with some isolated high amounts of a half and inch
possible showing up in some of the HREF probs.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2025
The models are in good agreement with an upper level trough swinging
into the Ohio Valley. A cold front is slated to cross Kentucky early
Thursday. This front will usher in much cooler weather Thursday,
with highs in the in the low to upper 40s from west to east. Most of
the area will see highs early in the day with fall temperatures into
the upper 30s to lower 40s by the afternoon. There is good agreement
on wrap around moisture with this system and this will mix some of
the precipitation over to rain and/or snow from the higher terrain
nearer the Virginia border. This could lead to some minor
accumulations on mainly elevated and grassy surfaces mainly above
2000 feet around the Virginia border, but not expecting any impacts
from this given the warm ground temperatures.
Thursday night into Friday, there is good agreement in the ensemble
and model suites for high pressure at the surface in the Gulf Coast
to nose northward into the Ohio Valley. In the mid-level, we will
see shortwave ridging set up across the Ohio Valley. This will lead
to clearing skies and quiet weather through the portion of the
period. The return flow will also lead to temperatures climbing back
closer to normal for this time of year.
Friday night into Saturday, we will see a mid-level shortwave
approach from the west and push across the Ohio Valley. There are
some timing differences with this wave as well a moisture return
differences. Either way biggest issue here remains the lack of
moisture, with most ensembles keeping PWAT values below 0.50. Given
this PoPs have been capped at around the 20-30 percent chance range
for this feature and mainly north of the Hal Rogers Parkway.
Going forward from here, we remain near normal for the temperature
through the period. There is a bit more divergence on the next storm
system slated to push into the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday.
However, the 00z ensembles already showing a 50 to 60 percent chance
of greater than quarter of an inch of rain from 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM
Monday. Therefore, the latest NBM data gave in to categorical
PoPs for Sunday night. There could be yet another disturbance on
Tuesday as we get into more cyclonic flow underneath the larger
upper level low placed across the Ohio Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2025
High pressure to the southeast and upper level ridging will keep
TAFs VFR through the period. Tonight, a low level jet strengthens
across the area ahead of the next storm system. This will lead to
LLWS at all sites between 02Z and 13Z Wednesday. Then by late
morning expect winds to begin mixing out of the south at 10-15
knots, with gust of 20-25 knots possible in the afternoon hours.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ068-069-
079-080-083>085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...DJ
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 18, 3:25 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503181925-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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