CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 17, 3:52 AM EDT
189
FXUS61 KCLE 170752
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
352 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds overhead on Monday before departing to the
east on Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system impacts
the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cloudy skies persist this morning with a few snow showers
continuing downwind of Lake Erie in parts of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. While the moisture is largely
synoptically-driven, there is likely a little bit of lake
enhancement has temperatures aloft have cooled to around -10 C
at 850mb. High pressure builds in from the west today, cloudy
skies gradually giving way to mostly sunny skies by this
afternoon. Temperatures will be on the chillier side but should
rebound by Tuesday as southerly warm air advection develops on
the backside of the departing high, bringing temperatures into
the 60s by the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will take shape over the Plains on Tuesday and begin
lifting northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday, tracking through the
northern Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday morning while
deepening to near or slightly above 990mb. The low will push a cold
front across the area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning,
followed by a secondary trough axis during the day Thursday.
It will be warm, dry, and breezy to windy through Wednesday ahead of
the approaching low. Still think much of the area will be subject to
30-40 MPH wind gusts on Wednesday, with some 45 MPH gusts not ruled
out west of I-71. Not far off from a Wind Advisory out west, though
it would be fairly low-end/marginal if we need one. Highs on
Wednesday will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with a bit
more upside east of the I-71 corridor. The gusty winds and warm
temperatures will combine with RH values bottoming out at 25-40% to
perhaps pose some risk for brush/field fire spread on Wednesday.
While this weekend's rain did moisten up fuels quite a bit, fine
fuels will likely dry out a fair bit by Wednesday afternoon.
Still have categorical POPs (80-90%) area-wide Wednesday night or
Thursday morning for rain showers with the cold frontal passage. Low
dew points and poor mid-level lapse rates should preclude
instability from developing, so am not carrying a thunder mention
and am not expecting any severe weather with the front Wednesday
night. The secondary low-level trough axis and a weak low-mid level
deformation zone will swing across the area Thursday as strong cold
air advection gets under way, bringing a quick return to shower
chances after what may be a short lull behind the front.
Precipitation will mix with and try changing to snow during the
afternoon as 850mb temperatures drop to -5 to -8C by evening, though
surface temperatures should stay safely above freezing through the
day and this precipitation will not be heavy...so no snow
accumulation expected during the day Thursday. Precipitation quickly
exits to the east Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as high
pressure quickly starts building in from the west. 850mb
temperatures bottom out -8 to -12C (coldest towards Northwest PA)
Thursday night or early Friday morning before quickly rebounding.
This could be cold enough for some lake/upslope enhancement to the
precip in the snowbelt into Thursday night before high pressure
quickly builds and shuts activity off by dawn Friday. Some higher
elevations of the snowbelt could see a slushy coating of snow
Thursday evening. Highs on Thursday will be reached early in the
day, generally in the 40s (perhaps a few low 50s east), with
temperatures falling through the 40s and towards the 30s during the
afternoon. Lows Thursday night are expected to bottom out in the mid
to upper 20s for most, staying slightly warmer downwind of central
and western Lake Erie.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weakening shortwave and surface reflection is agreed upon to zip
across the region on Saturday, bringing a chance for relatively
light amounts of rain. POPs have increased a bit with this forecast
to 40-50%, with plenty of room to come up if agreement continues.
Otherwise, a dry and quiet long term is expected. Temperatures will
be close to or perhaps slightly milder than normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Clouds remain across the area, primarily with MVFR ceilings,
though there are a few patches of IFR ceilings. Can see clearing
to the west in Indiana and Michigan, though it may take some
time for clouds to locally clear up. There are also a few
showers with a rain/snow mix across parts of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Showers should dissipate this morning
followed by clouds scattered and disappearing as high pressure
builds in. Northwest winds around 10 knots become light and
variable later today before becoming 5-10 knots out of the south
this evening into tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest flow dropping off today as high pressure builds in. Small
Craft Advisories have expired, though there may be some lingering 2
to 4 footers this morning in the central basin. Low pressure tracks
through the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday, pushing a cold
front across Lake Erie Wednesday night followed by a secondary
trough axis on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the cold front
will shift west-southwest Wednesday night, then more west-northwest
on Thursday. Speeds will increase to 15-25 knots Wednesday night
through Thursday evening, with a brief window to around 30 knots
possible late Wednesday night or Thursday when cold air advection is
strongest. High pressure builds quickly Thursday night into Friday,
bringing quickly improving marine conditions. It's likely that we'll
need a round of Small Craft Advisories late Wednesday through
Thursday to cover the unsettled conditions with this system.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
LEZ145>147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sullivan
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 17, 3:52 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503170752-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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