PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 17, 11:29 PM CDT
884
FXUS63 KPAH 180429
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1129 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty winds will lead to enhanced fire danger on Tuesday and
Red Flag conditions are forecast in parts of SEMO.
- Extremely strong winds with gust 35-50 mph are expected on
Wednesday. The strong winds will lead to quick spread of any
fires through the day and into the evening, especially over
southeast Missouri where the driest conditions are expected.
- Concern for thunderstorms has maintained east of the
Mississippi River Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few
severe storms cannot be ruled out.
- A pair of storm systems will bring some precipitation to the
Quad State from Friday night through Sunday. There will be
some thunderstorm potential, mainly on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
A broad lumbering trough is working onshore of the US Pacific
coast this afternoon that will play a major role in our weather
for the next 48 hours or so. This trough will spin up a large
surface low over the plains Tuesday causing windy conditions
over much of the central US including our region. South winds
will gust 25 to 35 mph and may approach advisory conditions.
Residual dry air and deep mixing should send RH into the 25 to
30 percent range which coupled with the winds may lead to
elevated fire danger conditions. Large amount of tree blowdown
and fuel conditions necessitate a red flag warning for parts of
the Mark Twain National Forest. Elevated fire danger conditions
are possible further east and will highlight that although fuels
appear wetter as you go east.
Wednesday looks like another very active weather day. Guidance
shows deep vertical mixing with a sharp pressure gradient as a
985 mb low moves over northern Missouri. Shear profiles become
very strong. Moisture/instability is lacking but there appears
to be a narrow window for some surface based instability to
build in, in the afternoon, so will need to watch for at least
some wind/tornado potential given the hodographs. We appear to
be slam dunk wind advisory at 40-50 mph both ahead and possibly
behind the cold front that will move through Wednesday morning.
That cools temperatures off quite a bit once again.
We moderate through the end of the week before a sharp digging
shortwave approaches from the northwest on Sunday. There are
fairly large differences between the ECMWF and GFS that would
have implications on severe weather potential. But the trend
does seem to be for better moisture return overall and just
eyeballing the GFS deterministic run the moisture return seems
underdone if anything given how long dewpoints will have had to
recover over the Gulf. Shear profiles would be favorable for
severe storms if the instability materializes.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
A developing low pressure system to the west will result in
brisk and gusty south winds today. South winds of 15-20 kts with
gusts up to 30 kts are expected at the terminals. High level
clouds will increase in coverage later in the TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ098-100-
106>108.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...AD
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 17, 11:29 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503180429-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!