ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 3:47 PM EDT
091
FXUS61 KILN 161947
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle into the region tonight through Monday,
providing dry conditions through midweek. Near normal temperatures
early in the week will moderate toward midweek ahead of the next
weather system, which will impact the region late Wednesday into
Thursday. Breezy and rainy conditions are expected late Wednesday
into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The earlier convection associated with the front itself has since
cleared the ILN FA, with additional SHRA sprouting about as the
midlevel trof axis pivots through the region. The richer LL moisture
has been shunted well to the E, but depth of LL moisture remains
sufficient that, with increased forcing owing to the arrival of the
midlevel trof axis, SCT SHRA are redeveloping once again, primarily
near/SE of the I-71 corridor. This activity will spread to the NE
through central and south-central OH through early evening, but is
not expected to be strong or severe, just simply wetting the ground
once again before conditions /finally/ dry out area-wide later this
evening.
Temps have rebounded slightly this afternoon coincident with some
brief clearing. However, CAA is underway and the westerly winds will
help advect in some cooler air into this evening, with temps
generally dipping from the 50s/60s into the 30s/40s past sunset.
Cannot completely rule out a few flurries late this evening, but most
spots should remain dry.
Overcast skies are expected to slowly scatter out from NW to SE
toward daybreak Monday as temps dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure will drift into the TN Vly for the short term
period, bringing dry and increasingly sunny conditions. Temps will
bit quite a bit chillier than has been the case the past several
days, but will be fairly close to seasonal norms... generally topping
out in the lower/mid 50s.
Amidst mainly clear skies and light winds, temps will dip abruptly
after sunset before bottoming out in the upper 20s/lower 30s from
central OH to NE KY to the mid/upper 30s near/W of I-75 by daybreak
Tuesday. WAA will be underway late in the short term period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A brief warmup is on tap for Tuesday through Wednesday as midlevel
ridging briefly builds into the TN/OH Vlys. SW flow will become
established in the LLs, helping bump highs into the upper 60s and
lower 70s both days. In fact, depending on the timing of the front on
Wednesday, highs may reach into the mid/upper 70s before pcpn moves
in very late in the day.
Although moisture return ahead of the advancing front Wednesday looks
to be rather meager, progged by fcst dewpoints in the lower to mid
50s, the approach of the potent (but compact) system lends itself to
at least some low-end potential for storms. The real question at
this juncture is the quality of the LL moisture return and how much
dewpoints mix out ahead of the front during the daytime. This, of
course, would act to limit the overall instby, but the forcing and
shear with this system is again quite robust. This setup will be
monitored in the coming days for possible strong to severe
potential, particularly Wednesday evening/night if the instby
corridor remains intact this far E.
Either way you shake it, breezy to windy conditions are on tap once
again late Wednesday into Thursday as the sub-990mb sfc low
migrates from near KC to Chicago, albeit in a slightly weakening
state. Gusts around 40 MPH will again be possible during this time
frame, although the specifics of the setup will become a bit clearer
in the coming days.
For the end of the workweek, below normal temperatures and northerly
flow persist through Friday when high pressure moves across the
southern states. Temperatures begin to moderate by the end of the
week with southerly flow redevelops by next weekend once again.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW SHRA are expected through this afternoon, particularly for
KCMH/KLCK where a PROB30 SHRA has been added to the fcst. However,
most sites will remain dry through the period, especially by tonight
as drier air works into the area.
A mix of MVFR/VFR CIGs continues to slowly pivot back into the
region and expect that prevailing CIGs should go MVFR around 2kft for
most sites through 06z before CIGs slowly lift/scatter out toward
daybreak Monday from NW to SE. Mostly clear to clear skies are likely
by the end of the period.
W winds around 15kts, with gusts around 20kts, are expected through
00z before slowly subsiding late this evening. The gustiness should
taper off past 03z, eventually going out of the NW at 10kts or less
toward 12z Monday.
OUTLOOK...Wind gusts in excess of 35 kt are likely late Wednesday
into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KC
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 16, 3:47 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503161947-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!