JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 17, 7:30 AM EDT
896
FXUS63 KJKL 171130
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
730 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After below normal temperatures for Monday, highs around 15
degrees above normal return for Tuesday and Wednesday.
- A mid-week storm system will bring a renewed chance of showers
and thunderstorms along with a sharp temperature drop.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2025
Updated hourly temperature and dewpoint curve with diurnal trend
using latest observations. No major changes to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2025
Some light returns on radar along with falling overnight
temperatures have resulted in an area of sprinkles possibly mixing
with flurries. These light forms of precipitation will slowly
taper off from west to east through this morning. As the previous
system continues to depart the region, drier air works in from
the west. An otherwise cloudy morning will yield to departing
mid- day clouds and sunny skies in the afternoon. Light north to
northwest winds through the day will keep temperatures suppressed
in the low 50s through the day. Winds are expected to shift to a
southerly direction around sunset this evening. Valley locations
are expected to decouple early with light winds and clear skies,
leading to decent ridge valley splits. Where ridges may see lows
in the upper 30s, decoupled valley locations will likely see
temperatures in the lower 30s.
With persistent southerly flow in place, warmer air will surge
into the region Tuesday. Collaboration with neighboring offices
resulted in a push a few degrees above most model guidance, to
factor in the persistent southerly flow, and being under the ridge
axis. Dew points may also be lower during the afternoon,
resulting in lower RH's. Highs have been adjusted up into the
lower 70s. This result is closer to the 75th percentile of the
National Blend of Models (NBM).
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 423 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2025
Following a period of height rises to end the short term period,
height rises are forecast to continue into Tuesday evening before
the upper level ridge axis shifts east of the Appalachians on
Tuesday night and an upper level trough works across the Plains.
The close low is expected to track across the Central Plains and
near the mid MS Valley/IA/MO/IL border area on Wednesday and north
of eastern KY through Wednesday and Wednesday evening. A lead
shortwave trough is progged to track form the Arklatex region
northeast and into the Lower OH Valley and TN Valley on Wednesday.
The 500 mb trough axis lingers to the west of eastern KY through
Wednesday night and additional shortwaves rotating around the
upper low as it meanders toward the western Great Lakes and
weakens to an open wave Wednesday night and early Thursday cross
eastern KY on Wednesday evening/night with the 500 mb trough axis
crossing the Commonwealth Thursday to Thursday evening. By that
point a ridge of high pressure will move east from the western
Conus/Rockies to the Central Conus by late Thursday. Yet another
trough should move from the eastern Pacific and into the western
Conus during the Wednesday to Wednesday night timeframe eventually
crossing the Rockies through late Thursday night or early Friday
and then into the Plains. For Tuesday night to Wednesday, the
surface low should trek from the Central Plains, across MO, and
then to the Great Lakes Wednesday night and then across southern
Ontario and Quebec and to the Northeast through Thursday and
Thursday night. The trailing cold front is expected to reach
western KY on Wednesday afternoon/evening and then across eastern
KY on Wednesday night. A secondary front/surface trough may
precede the mid level shortwave/trough axis at 500 mb across the
area on Thursday.
Preceding the system nearing on Wednesday, temperatures are
likely to continue warmer than the NBM deterministic and highs
were trended toward the 75th percentile range. Lower humidity is
expected to hand on another day, especially east of the escapement
as mainly south winds will keep a downslope component off the
higher terrain SW VA and some drier air aloft may also mix down.
In these areas rh should bottom out below 25 percent and below 20
percent for more eastern locations. In addition, winds will also
pick up with the increasing gradient and may get a bit gusty as
higher momentum is transferred to the surface from stronger winds
aloft. 00Z GFS BUFKIT momentum transfer suggests gusts could reach
the 25 to 35 percent range and assuming the dewpoint forecasts
verify, some near critical fire weather is possible especially
locations nearer to WV that picked up less rainfall over the
weekend and fuels should dry out the quickest from the incoming
ridging and above normal temperatures. Moisture with this system
will be rather limited and guidance has downslope rainshadowing in
the southeast, especially Big Sandy region, with a bit higher
rainfall near and west of the escarpment from Rowan county to
Wolfe to Laurel and McCreary counties. The more eastern and
southeastern locations will also be further removed from the best
forcing. For now, this system still looks to be a rather high
probability of measurable rainfall. Categorical poops were used
for Wednesday night and scattered to likely for Thursday, Chances
for more than a tenth to two tenths of an inch are rather slim.
00Z LREF probabilities of more than a tenth of an inch are in the
50 to 90 percent range, while probabilities of more than 0.2
inches are in the 20 to 60 percent range from east to west.
Following the light precipitation event, low relative humidity is
expected on Friday, especially in the more eastern and
southeastern locations, with another dry airmass working across
the area as the sfc and upper level ridge move across the OH
Valley, Appalachians and southeast Conus. Even though temperatures
will not be as mild as earlier in the week, the dry airmass
should lead to rh dropping to near 25 percent if not lower for
much of eastern KY. The ridge will shift east of the area to begin
the weekend for Friday night and Saturday, allowing the next
shortwave trough to move from the Central Conus and across the
the Great Lakes and OH Valley though Saturday with the associated
surface low tracking north of the OH River and to the mid
Atlantic to Northeast U.S. coast through Saturday night and early
Sunday. This system also appears to have limited moisture so only
light rainfall amounts around a tenth of an inch or so are
expected late Friday night and Saturday. Breif ridging at the
surface and aloft may work across the area for Saturday night into
Sunday, though the next shortwave trough and surface system that
will have likely moved across the western Conus should reach the
central Conus late Saturday night into Sunday and track toward the
MS Valley and Lower OH Valley quickly in rather strong
westerlies. That system might be able to tap a bit more Gulf
moisture and transport it into the OH Valley as compared to the
two earlier systems in the long term period, with showers
associated with that possibly arriving as early as Sunday
afternoon. GFS operational runs are generally quicker with the
arrival of this system versus recent ECMWF operational runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2025
Drier air continues to move into the state behind a departing
system through the day. MVFR ceilings gradually rise/improve
through mid-morning. VFR conditions return heading into the
afternoon. Some sprinkles or flurries may linger for the next few
hours, but should taper off from west to east by 18Z Monday. Light
northwesterly winds will gradually shift to the southwest around
00Z Tuesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 17, 7:30 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503171130-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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