BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 1:02 PM EDT
999
FXUS61 KBOX 101702
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
102 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Sunshine and mild temperatures are in store for today and
Tuesday. Cooler on Wednesday and a chance of light
precipitation Wednesday night or Thursday. Warmer temperatures
Friday through the weekend with the next chance for rainfall
arriving late weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
845 AM update...
Subsidence behind departing shortwave and very dry airmass will
result in abundant sunshine today. A period of gusty W-NW winds
this morning will diminish this afternoon with localized
seabreezes developing later today. 925 mb temps 4-6C will
support highs 55-60, with a few locations across CT, RI and SE
MA possibly reaching the lower 60s.
Previous discussion...
Key Messages:
* Partly cloudy early this morning will turn breezy from the
west but with decreasing cloudiness by noontime.
* Seabreeze/onshore flow anticipated near the eastern MA coast
by midafternoon.
* Above normal temps today in the 50s.
Details:
As we approach sunrise, as the clipper low begins its closest
approach, expect a bit of an increase in midlevel cloud cover
(greatest covg north), along with WSWly winds around 10 mph or
so with occasional breezes to about 20 mph. During the mid to
late morning hrs, expect decreasing cloudiness toward full sun
and a brief/gusty windshift to WNW as the clipper system pulls
offshore, with speeds around 10-15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph.
Full sun and a steepening if still shallow mixed layer will
allow for temps to warm into the 50s for most, and dewpoints to
also drop into the lower to mid 20s. Winds will be decreasing as
we move into the afternoon, so the period of gusts should be
short.
Later in the day - closer to midafternoon - as a weak high
pressure builds into northern New England, it may bring
something similar to a seabreeze or hybrid backdoor cool front
along the immediate eastern MA coast. Were that to materialize -
and we believe it will, given it has consistently shown up in
mesoscale guidance - areas along the eastern coast of MA would
see winds lightening up and turning easterly while cooling the
immediate coastline down quite a bit while also bringing
dewpoints up some at least when compared to further inland. So
by later this afternoon, we could have quite a contrast between
the warmer and drier interior and a comparatively cooler eastern
MA coast. All in all though, nothing necessarily causing
impacts. All told, while we start with some morning clouds,
those decrease this morning to full sun and turns rather mild
today, and temps even near the coast still will end up above
normal even in the face of a seabreeze.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
300 AM Update:
Key Messages:
* Mainly clear skies with lows in the 20s and 30s.
* SW breezes, full sun and very mild Tuesday with highs away
from the coast in the upper 50s/low 60s!
Details...
Tonight:
Stuck in a rather weak sea level pressure pattern tonight with
a broad/weak high pressure just offshore of Cape Cod. This will
favor clear skies, light winds (some light southerly component
near the coasts) and strong radiational cooling. Used MOS
datasets for low temps, with the usual large range in low temps
from the mid/upper 20s in favored valleys/along I-495 corridor
in MA and MVY, to the mid 30s elsewhere.
Something for later shifts to monitor is the potential for
either coastal stratus or mist/fog. The weak SE wind component
drawing some shallow moisture inland into the strongly-cooling
nighttime temps is one that could favor areas of mist or ground
fog. NAM shows a near surface saturated layer at sites such as
EWB, and there are a few model forecast visibility progs which
show 2-4 SM visby mist overnight around the RI/MA South Coast
and into the coastal plain. I downplayed this for now since the
ground is drying out and didn't have the confidence in its
development, but this is a pattern where you could get mist or
fog to develop.
Tuesday:
High pressure to remain anchored offshore on Tue, with a
tightening SWly pressure gradient as we move through the day.
Expect SW breezes to develop at around 10-15 mph with gusts to
25 mph and full sunshine. Though I have some questions as to how
high temps may go since mixing looks shallow, Tuesday is likely
going to be one of the warmest days we've seen in some time, and
this is one of those setups we see in early Spring where
observed temps will tend to overperform available guidance. With
925 mb temps nearing +10C along with some downsloping, upper
50s to low 60s seem achievable away from the coast (mid 50s near
the coasts) and though I stopped short of going into the mid
60s given the shallow mixing, some areas could get there.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wednesday through Friday:
Temperatures continue to trend cooler for Wednesday and Thursday
after a cold front moves through the region. High temperatures now
look to struggle to reach the 50s, both days under northerly flow on
Wednesday and onshore flow on Thursday. Skies Wednesday should be
mostly sunny, with dry air being advected, but with winds turning
onshore for Thursday, skies likely turn mostly cloudy. Uncertainty
regarding precipitation chances increased on Thursday. A 700mb Jet
may bring enough lift Wednesday night into Thursday to bring some
light precip to the region. With temperatures near or below freezing
overnight, precip that does fall will be light snow; however, temps
warm quickly after the daybreak, turning any precip to rain. Bufkit
soundings still show low-level dry air left over from Wednesday,
making it difficult for precip to reach the ground. If any precip
does reach the ground, QPF totals will be light, likely less than a
tenth of an inch. Temperatures should warm some Friday back into the
mid-50s with warm air advection.
Next weekend:
Guidance is already in good agreement that a strong 500mb closed
trough exiting the central US and moving towards the region late in
the weekend. This will likely be our next best shot at accumulating
rainfall, as the CPCs two-week hazards outlook shows a moderate risk
for heavy precipitation and a slight risk for high winds March 15 -
17.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update:
Through Tuesday...High confidence.
VFR. A few marginal VFR or MVFR clouds may develop along the
immediate south coast Tue afternoon but not expecting any cigs.
Diminishing winds this afternoon with localized sea breezes
developing late today. Light wind tonight, then increasing S
winds Tue with gusts 20-30 kt developing in the afternoon.
Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.
Mostly VFR, but patchy stratus and fog may develop along the
south coast. S-SW 8-15 kt in the evening becoming NW after
midnight.
KBOS TAF...High confidence. A brief sea breeze is anticipated
around 22z.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA,
chance SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tonight: High confidence.
Small craft advisories continue for today on most waters. While
speeds currently are around 10-15 kt currently, those will
increase from the SW by daybreak to SCA levels. A windshift to
WNW by around noontime with gusts to 25 kt is expected before
quickly easing into mid-afternoon to sub-SCA levels. Light S/SW
winds expected tonight with lowering seas.
Tuesday: High confidence.
Light SW winds initially but will increase to around 15-25 kt by
early in the afternoon, highest on northern waters. SCAs could
be needed. Dry weather continues with good visbys.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ255-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/KP
NEAR TERM...KJC/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...KJC/KP
MARINE...Loconto/KP
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 1:02 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503101702-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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