JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 13, 7:12 PM EDT
468
FXUS63 KJKL 132312
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
712 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm weather will persist through Saturday.
- Near critical fire weather concerns will exist for Friday.
- A dynamic storm system is expected to bring multiple rounds of
showers, and some thunderstorms, to the area this weekend.
- There is a slight risk of severe storms for most of eastern KY,
with an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms near Lake
Cumberland from Saturday afternoon into early on Saturday
night.
- Strong to damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are
the primary risks with thunderstorms late Friday night into
Saturday night.
- In addition to the damaging wind gust potential from
thunderstorms, strong environmental winds and wind gusts are
possible late Friday night through Saturday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2025
Thunderstorms have propagated northward out of TN into our
southwestern counties. Have raised the POP in the chance category
there for a brief time early this evening. Have followed a blend
of the latest HRRR and RAP for the POP as we head into the
evening, with a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms further
into our forecast area-- especially the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2025
Weak system moving across the area late this afternoon will help
to fire off some high-based showers and thunderstorms. Given the
surrounding drier low-level environment, gusty and erratic breezes
will be possible within and in the vicinity of these showers and
storms, but otherwise impacts will be limited to brief downpours
and some lightning where storms occur.
Skies clear overnight tonight with light winds. This will help to
promote significant ridge-valley temperature splits once again
tonight.
Southerly winds gradually increase through the day Friday as a
powerful low pressure system ramps up over the middle of the
country. The combination of increasingly gusty winds through the
afternoon and relatively dry conditions in part due to downslope
compressional warming/drying will present a near-critical fire
weather threat, especially east of the escarpment and downwind of
the highest terrain in far eastern Kentucky.
Winds continue to increase through the overnight Friday night,
with probabilities for wind gusts reaching or exceeding 34 kts
(or ~39 mph) starting to reach or exceed 50 percent after about
midnight along and just downwind of the higher terrain along the
Tennessee and Virginia borders, with these winds continuing to
increase into the morning Saturday. Will thus need to consider a
Wind Advisory beginning this period with future forecast packages.
Additionally, models suggesta a roughly linear area of showers
and generally discrete yet weakening thunderstorms approaching the
Interstate 75 corridor from the west shortly before or near dawn
Saturday. There is a Marginal Risk Severe Weather Outlook in
effect for this time period generally along and west of
Interstate 75 for the early morning hours Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2025
The period Saturday morning begins most likely with a weakening
linear area of showers and thunderstorms moving east across
eastern Kentucky. What CAMS that are available this far out
suggest the activity will continue to weaken and/or diminish while
moving east as they outrun better dynamic and thermodynamic
forcing to the west. The next potential round of showers and
thunderstorms then arrives in the afternoon as a powerful low-
level jet pushes a warm front rapidly north.
Heading into the evening, attention turns to an approaching upper
trough/disturbance with an intensifying meridionally-oriented
mid-level jet streak approaching from the west. Additionally, it
is possible a surface low will be moving northeast towards the
area from the Lower Tennessee Valley, and this will bear close
watching as to its strength as it approaches southeastern Kentucky
toward the evening and overnight. Models suggest a potentially
concerning environment supportive of a QLCS line of storms with
embedded supercells possible heading into the evening and/or
overnight given the exceptionally strong veering wind low-level
wind profile supportive of large hodographs. If the low-level or
surface low remains fairly discrete and deep, an environment
supportive of all severe weather modes will be on the table, but
particularly a damaging wind and tornado threat. The SPC continues
to trend more ominous with their outlooks into eastern Kentucky,
and we certainly believe this is warranted at this point. However,
there are still quite a few failure modes for this event to
materialize below its full potential, with the biggest question
being how much instability is available as the storms move into
eastern and southeastern Kentucky.
Other hazardous weather concerns for Saturday through Saturday
night will be environmental winds, particularly as the low-level
jet moves across the area Saturday and persists into Saturday
night, which will likely warrant at least a Wind Advisory for most
if not all of the area at some point soon. Additionally, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for all but far
eastern Kentucky, which seems prudent given the strength of the
warm advection and the intensity of the low-level jet and possible
moisture transport into southern and eastern Kentucky Saturday
into Saturday night. Given recent antecedent dry conditions, the
primary threat, at least initially, would be flash flooding
associated with any potential training of storms across the area.
The parent upper trough will be slowing as it approaches the area
Saturday night into Sunday, with trough passage not until the
afternoon hours even though the cold front will occur near or
shortly after the passage of the strong to severe storms Saturday
night. Until upper trough passage, will continue to keep cold
advection/upslope precipitation in the forecast into Sunday over
southeastern Kentucky, with breezy to perhaps windy conditions
also continuing. Temperatures will likely remain on the mild side
Sunday given continued southwesterly flow aloft, despite low-level
cold advection.
The final trough passage occurs late Sunday night into Monday,
ushering in drier weather but also more northwesterly flow aloft.
Despite this, highs Monday will only return to near normal values
(for mid-March) of around 60 degrees.
Dry weather persists into the middle of next week as warm
advection increases ahead of the next system which will likely not
reach the area until Wednesday night or Thursday morning, which
is at the tail end of the forecast period. Expect temperatures to
continue to rise back to above normal to well-above-normal levels,
with increasingly breezy south to southwesterly winds ahead of
the cold front arrival.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2025
Scattered showers/thunderstorms were present early this evening,
especially in an area bounded roughly by KSME, KLOZ, K1A6, and
KEKQ. Additional activity may develop further northeast this
evening, but all of it should eventually die out by around 04Z.
Will include a PROB30 group for TSRA at KLOZ and KSME this
evening, but the probability looks too low to include it
elsewhere. Once activity dies, quiet VFR conditions are forecast
through the remainder of the period. Although, winds will pick up
during the day Friday, gusting 20 kt or better at most places in
the afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 13, 7:12 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503132312-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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