PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 7:52 PM EDT
130
FXUS61 KPBZ 102352
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
752 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and above-normal temperatures expected through Friday. The
next chance of widespread precipitation arrives Saturday into
Sunday, as a powerful low pressure system is expected to ride
up the Mississippi Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and above-average temperatures expected Tuesday
- Wind gusts and low relative humidity may create fire weather
concerns Tuesday afternoon
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Benign weather continues through tonight under high pressure;
temperatures will likely stay above freezing early Tuesday
morning.
A northern stream shortwave trough is still slated to cross
Ontario and the northern Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will help
to push a dry, weakening cold front into the region later in
the day. Some scattered clouds may accompany the boundary, but
no precipitation is forecast. Continued trend of going a touch
above NBM mean for max temperature given good mixing
expectations. Relative humidity and wind gusts (between 15 to 25
MPH) may cause fire weather concerns; more details are in the
Fire Weather section below.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A brief cool down on Wednesday but temperatures remain above
normal.
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The boundary may have trouble clearing the region by Wednesday.
The possible variation with its position lends some
considerable uncertainty regarding high temperatures, as cold
advection behind the boundary will lead to surface cooling, with
potentially thicker cloud cover behind the front also stunting
diurnal warming. This uncertainty is maximized north of
Pittsburgh, where there is an 8-9 degree difference between the
25th and 75th percentile values according to the 13Z NBM. High
temperatures could range anywhere from the lower 50s to the
lower 60s here. There is more agreement in still-warm values
south of I-70, where expectations of upper 60s max values
remain with more sunshine potential.
The boundary may begin a northward push Wednesday night as 500mb
heights begin to climb, leading to a slow cloud increase and low
temperatures a few degrees warmer than those of Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Much above-normal temperature likely Thursday into the weekend
- Strong low pressure system likely to bring widespread rain and
falling temperature, with more uncertainty in other hazards
- Dry and cooler early next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Models still suggest that a weak shortwave will track to our south
on Thursday, over the Tennessee Valley. Although there does seem to
be some modest moisture transport from the southwest, current
expectations are that support for lift will be weak at best, and thus
only minimal PoPs in the slight chance/20 percent range are still
justified at most.
After this, the warmup continues into Saturday as eastern CONUS
heights continue to rise in response to a deepening central CONUS
trough and closed low. There remains a bit of uncertainty regarding
how high 500mb heights get, which of course could impact maximum
temperatures. Nevertheless, for Friday and Saturday, chances of 70+
highs are 90 percent or greater from Pittsburgh south, with 75+
highs at 60 percent or greater south of I-70.
Ensembles are in general agreement that overall stacked system will
lift across the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday, with a warm
front possibly lifting through that day, followed by a cold front
Saturday night/Sunday morning. Rounds of rain remain likely, with
locally heavy amounts possible as models suggest that precipitable
water values may approach the climatological maximum for mid-March.
While gradient winds will likely be elevated due to the dynamic
nature of the system (with advisory-level wind possible in the
ridges), the severe thunderstorm threat will be tied more closely to
the levels of CAPE that can develop. Models remain a bit pessimistic
on this front. There is good potential for decent deep directional
and speed shear however, so the severe threat may increase if better
levels of buoyancy can develop.
Regardless, there is decent confidence in these threats tapering off
Sunday afternoon and night behind the cold front, with drier weather
and temperatures much closer to normal for Sunday night and
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period. A ridge of surface high
pressure will slide east across the region through Tuesday
morning. Wind gusts will increase Tuesday with mixing, and a
tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front.
This front will drop south across the region during the
afternoon and evening, with some increase in stratocu and a
WSHFT to the NNW.
Outlook...
VFR is expected Wednesday as high pressure builds back in across
the region. The cold front will return north as a warm from
Wednesday night and Thursday, with an increase in mid level
clouds. Ridging will maintain VFR Friday before strong low
pressure returns restrictions, rain, possible thunderstorms,
and gusty wind to the region Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday is the day this week where concerns about potential
fire spread will be highest. The arrival of a weak cold front
will not bring precipitation, but an increased surface pressure
gradient and efficient mixing could lead to wind gusts of up to
25 MPH from the west and southwest. Minimum relative humidity
levels are currently forecast to be in the 30 to 40 percent
range with locally lower dips, but they may need to be adjusted
a bit lower if dry air mixing is more efficient during the
afternoon than current expectations, especially near and south
of Pittsburgh ahead of the front. Fine fuels will also be
drying with time given the lack of precipitation through the
week. Will mention concerns in the HWO for now, but pending
collaboration with neighboring offices and fire weather
partners, an SPS for fire spread potential may be needed in at
least some of the area tomorrow.
For now, wind and RH concerns are a bit lower for Wednesday
through Friday, but trends will be monitored.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...CL
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 7:52 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503102352-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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