ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 11, 1:45 AM EDT
606
FXUS61 KILN 110545
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
145 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm conditions persist through the end of the week before the next
weather maker arrives this weekend. Gusty winds, showers, and some
thunderstorms are possible Saturday into Saturday night ahead of a
cold front associated with a strong low pressure system.
Temperatures cool off behind the front for Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Another tranquil overnight is on tap with mostly clear skies with
just some cirrus from time-to-time. Light SW sfc flow will be
maintained, slowly increasing a bit toward daybreak and beyond. That
should keep temps quite a bit warmer than has been the case the past
several nights, with lows generally ranging from the mid/upper 30s
in the lower Scioto Valley/SE OH to the mid 40s in EC IN and WC OH
where the winds will pick up a bit toward sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will drop into the area on Tuesday bringing with
it a drop in temperatures for locations north of the front along
with a change in wind direction and increasing cloud cover. The
exact placement where the cold front stalls is somewhat uncertain.
Current guidance suggests front holds up near the Ohio River by
Tuesday evening.
The front will remain stalled across the area through Tuesday night.
This should result in a bit of gradient in the low temperatures with
areas north of I-70 likely dropping into the lower to middle 30s
while areas south of the Ohio River only drop into the lower 40s.
Conditions remain dry through Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Well above normal temperatures will continue through the remainder
of the week. Stalled east-west frontal boundary will be draped
across the area to start the period. How quickly that lifts north is
a bit in question as guidance typically lifts such boundaries too
quickly during the daytime. Main effect would be on highs north of I-
70. But there is little doubt that it will push well north of the
area Wednesday night.
An upper low will weaken and open up into a wave as it tracks
eastward across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. Some weak forcing
on the northern periphery of this system combined with an increase
of low level moisture could bring some spotty showers to the area.
A rather robust upper low will lift from the central Plains into the
western Great Lakes at the end of the week. Associated surface low
will remain well northwest of the forecast area but the trailing
front will push into the area on Saturday. Pressure gradient out
ahead of this will result in gusty winds. At this point, it appears
that a decaying convective system will spread into the region
late Friday night into Saturday morning. If this occurs, as
much of the current guidance indicates, then there may be little
opportunity to destabilize on Saturday afternoon and thus there
may be a minimum in showers or any thunderstorms during that
time frame.
A secondary short wave will move from the mid South into the central
Appalachians which will bring a wave along the lingering front.
This will result in another round of showers and possibly
thunderstorms Saturday night, pushing east of the area on Sunday
morning. This round of precipitation could bring some locally
heavy rainfall.
High pressure will build in early next week. It will be cooler,
but still a bit above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clear or mostly clear skies are expected overnight and through most
of the day on Tuesday with just some high clouds at times. LLWS will
be possible late in the overnight hours and into the morning daytime
hours. Winds will pick up during the day on Tuesday with wind gusts
around 20 knots.
A boundary will sag down into the TAF sites late in the day and into
the overnight hours Tuesday night. As it move into the area there
will be a change in wind direction and an increase in VFR clouds.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions with storms are possible Saturday. Wind
gusts near or above 35kts are likely Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/KC
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 11, 1:45 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503110545-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!