LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 12:42 PM CST ...New AVIATION...
560
FXUS64 KLIX 071842
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1242 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Upper ridging noted over the Gulf and the lower Mississippi River
Valley early this morning. Shortwave troughs were noted over
eastern Colorado, southern California, and near the Idaho-Oregon
border. At the surface, high pressure extended from the eastern
Gulf to the Ohio River Valley, with low pressure over western
Kansas. Locally, quite a bit of cirrus cloud cover across the
area, with temperatures ranging from 40 at Pascagoula to the
lower 50s along the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain.
High pressure will continue to slide eastward today with southerly
flow becoming more prevalent. This will bring about a gradual
increase in dew points today, from the 30s and 40s this morning to
the upper 50s by this evening. We should see a fair amount of
filtered sunshine today with high temperatures getting well into
the 70s, except on the Mississippi coast, where the cooler
nearshore waters will hold highs down a few degrees.
Forecast soundings from the GFS and the HRRR would indicate that
conditions aren't going to be as conducive for radiation fog
overnight tonight as perhaps earlier anticipated. Perhaps a bit
more conducive to advective fog near the coast, and low clouds
elsewhere. With ongoing warm advection, can't rule out some
isolated showers prior to sunrise on Saturday, especially near the
coast.
The Colorado shortwave, and surface low pressure over Kansas will
weaken as they move into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and
tonight. The associated frontal boundary will make it about as far
south as Interstate 20. The California trough will move into New
Mexico by Saturday morning, and into north Texas by Saturday
evening. The GFS 00z solution has trended toward a more southerly
solution similar to earlier Euro and Canadian solutions with a
center of circulation much closer to the Interstate 10 corridor
than previous runs.
By midday Saturday, the airmass will have destabilized enough to
potentially support surface based convection. MLCAPE values near
1000 J/KG, temperatures in the mid 70s or warmer, dew points in
the mid 60s, precipitable water values near 1.6 inches, mid level
lapse rates at or above 7C/KM, freezing level near 12K feet and
wet bulb zero levels at or below 11K feet may allow development of
a few cells producing large hail by late afternoon or early
evening just about anywhere in the CWA. Drier air arriving in the
mid and upper levels after midnight Saturday night should bring
any severe weather threat to an end.
Overnight lows the next 2 nights should generally be near or above
60 degrees, or roughly 10 degrees above normal, and guidance is in
good agreement. Similarly, Saturday highs are in pretty good
agreement.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Cooler and drier air arrives behind the southern stream shortwave
on Sunday, but can't rule out some isolated to scattered rain
showers Sunday morning on the nose of the drier air. High pressure
will slide eastward across the lower Mississippi River Valley
Monday and Tuesday, into the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. The next
southern stream shortwave trough will move into Oklahoma by midday
Wednesday, and across Tennessee on Thursday. This is likely to
bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the local
area sometime around Wednesday night, although the 00z GFS
operational solution is a bit quicker than the 00z ECMWF
operational, by perhaps 6-12 hours.
Overnight lows Sunday and Monday nights are expected to be a bit
on the cool side. Monday highs are likely to average right around
normal, but for the rest of the week, highs will run above normal,
perhaps as much as 5-10 degrees, with a few readings around 80
degrees not out of the question.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Visible satellite and surface obs show a mix of lower level clouds
and a high cirrus deck in place across the region. The lowest deck
is still just above 3kft, so will maintain VFR through the rest of
today and this evening. Expect those clouds to fade after sunset
and with increasing low level moisture from onshore flow, patchy
to areas of light fog will be possible at terminals. Saturday
morning.
Those IFR to MVFR conditions likely won't improve much even as
the fog dissipates as lower clouds will move in. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible late morning into the
afternoon hours as a system approaches from the west/northwest.
Main potential impacts to terminals will be brief heavy rainfall,
lightning and possibly hail with stronger storms.
MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Will hold onto the Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines over the
western waters today, although it is admittedly rather borderline.
Wind speeds should relax somewhat by evening. There will likely be
a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions by Sunday afternoon
into the first half of Monday as cooler and drier air arrives over
the waters. Another period of improved conditions for late Monday
into Tuesday before the next system arrives on Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 59 76 55 63 / 0 70 80 20
BTR 62 78 57 66 / 10 80 60 10
ASD 61 78 60 72 / 10 80 70 20
MSY 64 77 61 69 / 10 80 50 10
GPT 60 75 60 72 / 20 70 80 20
PQL 60 77 60 73 / 20 70 80 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...RW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 12:42 PM CST ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503071842-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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