JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 7:35 PM EDT
638
FXUS63 KJKL 102335 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
735 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend continues through Friday.
- Low relative humidity and an increase in winds could result in
near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons.
- A cold front is expected to bring showers and possibly
thunderstorms on the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the southwest of the area in
control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is keeping the
winds relatively light and skies clear. Currently temperatures
are running in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Meanwhile dewpoints
are generally in the low to mid 20s. Have updated the forecast
mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 424 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
A closed low at the surface and aloft is departing the southeast
CONUS to the east late today, while induced ridging is present over
our area. This is bringing us a quiet day, with just some high
clouds on the periphery of the low being seen in southeast KY.
As the low departs, our ridging will flatten and we will transition
to zonal flow aloft for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a low
pressure system will be moving from Ontario across Quebec tonight
and Tuesday, sending a cold front southward in the eastern CONUS. As
the front becomes strung out nearly parallel to the flow aloft, it
will lose momentum and stall near or a little north of the Ohio
River Tuesday night. As the front presses south, it will bring a
tightening surface pressure gradient which will increase our low
level flow out of the southwest late tonight through Tuesday night.
This will bring a very mild air mass to the region, but gulf
moisture will be slower to return. As a result, sunshine with strong
heating/mixing again on Tuesday will bring very low relative
humidity. While winds will be stronger on Tuesday, they are still
forecast to remain just under critical fire weather levels, but the
wind/RH combo will result in an elevated wildfire threat.
Warm air advection with clear skies and dry air will give us notable
nocturnal ridge/valley temperature differences tonight. See no
reason why valleys won't be able to fall about 40 degrees to the
upper 20s, while slight stirring on ridges hold readings as mild
as the mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
Main concerns in the long term are with elevated to near-critical
fire weather Wednesday and possibly Friday afternoons, in addition
to a potential severe weather threat Saturday, especially the
latter half of Saturday, across eastern Kentucky.
To begin the period, a dry air mass will continue to reside for one
more day across eastern Kentucky under zonal flow ahead of a mid-
level low ejecting east across Texas toward the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. Ahead of this system, winds near the surface will
increase in the afternoon to around 10 mph with gusts 15 to 20 mph,
which combined with minimum afternoon RH values in the 20 to 25
percent range will cause elevated to near-critical fire weather
concerns.
This upper system will weaken considerably by Thursday as it moves
east across the Tennessee River Valley, with shower activity (and a
possibly a thunderstorm or two) diminishing and dissipating as it
approaches the Interstate 75 corridor in the late afternoon and
early evening.
Attention then turns to Friday and the weekend, as a powerful storm
system ejects northeast from the Southwest US toward southern
Canada. This system will have an impressive and large wind field
owing to unusually low surface pressure. There are concerns for
Friday with regards to near-critical fire weather conditions as
strong south to southeast surface flow will cause downslope
compressional warming along and downwind of the mountains along the
Virginia border. The big question will be the strength of the winds,
which right now look to be the inhibiting factor for reaching
fire weather warning criteria, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph and
surface wind speeds of around 10 mph. Nevertheless, this will be
something to monitor.
Next concern will be the potential for convection late Friday night
through early Sunday. First round of convection Friday night will
likely be significantly weakening as it moves into eastern Kentucky
late Friday night into early Saturday, but better upper support and
instability arrive late Saturday into early Sunday as good shear and
at least sufficient instability move into the area. The SPC has the
area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday
night, and this seems reasonable given the upper-level environment
and locations of jet streaks in the lower and middle levels of the
atmosphere.
Despite the cold frontal passage Saturday night, mild temperatures
stick around through Sunday as southwesterly flow aloft persists
ahead of the lagging upper level trough passage Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
VFR conditions with mainly clear skies will prevail through the
period. Look for light winds to pick up from the southwest at 5 to
10 kts by midday Tuesday with a few gusts up into the mid teens
possible.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 10, 7:35 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503102335-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAA)
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