PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 5:27 AM CDT
109
FXUS63 KPAH 091027
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
527 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures are in store for the entire
week with highs in the 60s and 70s.
- Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning. Small hail cannot be ruled out with a
stronger storm or two, especially southeast Missouri.
- Unsettled weather is likely with a strong cold front late
Friday into Saturday with a greater risk of stronger
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
A 500 mb shortwave will transverse south of the FA today with
moisture. Dry conditions will prevail as high level cirrus clouds
begin to clear from the north later this morning. Abundant sunshine
along with a major warming trend can be expected through the first
half of next week as the synoptic flow aloft turns more zonal.
Bumped up high temperatures to the NBM 75th percentile for Monday
and Tuesday and a 50/50 blend of the 50th & 75th percentile for
Wednesday. WAA between 900-850 mb combined with a well mixed
dry thermal profile make it probable for larger diurnal ranges
with temperatures that will overachieve the NBM closer to MOS
guidance. Moisture does begin to increase in the boundary layer
Wednesday, slowing the rate of warming. While highs on Sunday
will only be near 60 degrees, mid 60s to near 70 degrees are
progged for Monday and low to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.
The next pcpn chances begin to arrive Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning as a weak 500 mb shortwave moves across the FA with
showers and a few thunderstorms. The moisture transport remains
extremely meager overall. However, steep 700-500 mb lapse rates
of 7-8 C/km combined with pockets of MUCAPE between 500-750
J/kg and a low WBZ around 750 mb will support the potential for
a stronger storm with small hail, especially southeast
Missouri. QPF is fairly light, with a 30 to 40% chance of
exceeding a tenth of an inch on the LREF.
A more unsettled and highly amplified synoptic pattern is more
probable in the late Friday to Saturday period as a 500 mb longwave
trough moves onshore Thursday morning and ejects across the Plains
on Friday. A leading trough becomes negatively tilted and closes off
in the vicinity of Iowa and Nebraska Friday night with a trailing
100+ kt jet max. Sfc low pressure deepens to ~975 mb, allowing
for a robust transport of Gulf moisture as a 60 kt 850 mb LLJ
ramps up. Sfc dewpoints rise into the lower 60s with 0-1 km
theta-e values around 130K. The deep layer moisture and
extremely low SLP below the 10th percentile continues to support
a synoptic setup favorable for severe weather and flash
flooding potential. In fact, 80% ENS, 60% GEFS and 40% GEPS
members support a 50 to 60% chance of exceeding 500 J/kg of
SBCAPE and 30 kts of bulk shear.
As for the heavy rainfall potential, there is a bit more
uncertainty. The GFES and GEPS are slower with a trailing secondary
trough on Saturday, supporting training convection. However, the
ENS is more progressive and would favor the axis of heavy rainfall
being more southeast of the FA. The current WPC QPF shows 1 to 2+
inches of rain across much of the FA with the LREF supporting a
40-50% chance of at least 1 inch. Overall, the setup will be
something to continue to monitor in the coming days as a
transition into more of a spring pattern begins to occur.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with high
cirrus clouds giving way to clear skies this afternoon. Light
winds around 5-7 kts turn calm again tonight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 5:27 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503091027-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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