JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 1:46 PM EDT
733
FXUS63 KJKL 091746
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
146 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend commences today and persists through mid-week.
- Well above normal temperatures, about 15 to 20+ degrees above
normal, are expected from Tue through Sat.
- Low relative humidity and an increase in winds could result in
near critical fire weather conditions Tue and/or Wed afternoons.
Winds also could be gusty with rather low rh for Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
Forecast remained in good shape throughout the morning and into
the early afternoon. Radar returns in the south diminished, and
other than some high clouds along the TN border, sunny conditions
and light winds are prevailing. Loaded in the latest surface
observations to make sure the near term forecast is on track with
current conditions. This only resulted in minor changes. All
updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast
package was also sent out to remove morning wording.
UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
Chilly but fair weather continues this morning. Forecast remains
on track. Expect high clouds to gradually thin from north to
south and temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s by
mid-afternoon at most locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
A quiet early spring morning is underway across the eastern Kentucky
Coalfields with high pressure firmly in control of our weather.
Thermometers range from mid 20s in the sheltered northern hollows to
the mid 30s on thermal belt ridges/slopes. High clouds, thicker near
the Tennessee state line, are streaming northeast across our region
as a wave of low pressure rides along the Central Gulf Coast ahead
of a 500H low passing through the Southern Plains.
While the surface low and any associated precipitation track well to
our south through the short-term, surges of upper level moisture
will lead to varying amounts of high cloud cover, most noticeably
over the Cumberland River Basin. Otherwise, high pressure at the
surface and abundant dry air in the low and mid-levels will lead
to continued to fair weather through Monday.
Temperatures will gradually moderate through the period with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s today and in the mid to upper 60s on
Monday. However, dry air, calm winds, and minimal cloud cover
will allow for chilly lows again tonight, ranging from the upper
20s in sheltered valleys to the upper 30s on thermal belt ridges/
slopes.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 545 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
The period is expected to begin with an upper level low centered
in the vicinity of the coast of the Carolinas with upper level
ridging extending north from Mexico to portions of the Southeast
and the Four Corners region and Southern to Central Plains as well
as the Lower to Mid MS Valley regions. Further north, as the
period begins, an upper level low is progged to be centered over
Hudson Bay with an associated trough at 500 mb extending near the
Ontario and Manitoba border to the near the eastern Dakotas border
with MN. At the same time, an upper low and associated trough
should be nearing the west coast of the Conus at that point as
well. At the sfc, an area of low pressure is expected to be moving
off the Southeast U.S. coast at that point with a ridge of high
pressure centered in the western Gulf and extending into the TN
and OH Valleys. Further northwest a wavy frontal zone should
extend from a sfc low in Ontario to the northern Great Lakes to
northern Plains and Northern Rockies vicinity to the west coast.
Monday night to Tuesday night, the upper level low and associated
trough will depart to the east northeast of the coast of the
Carolinas/Southeast with shortwave ridging crossing the OH Valley
Monday night to early Tuesday while the upper low meanders of
Hudson Bay and the trailing trough axis moves across the western
and central Great Lakes to the eastern Great Lakes and then Quebec
to the Northeast to Mid Atlantic. Further west, during this time,
the upper low trough initially near the west coast of the Conus
should work across the Southwest Conus and likely become an open
wave as it nears and or moves to the east of the Four Corners
region. Another stronger trough is progged to near the west coast
of the Conus at midweek. A sfc low along the wavy frontal zone
well north of the Commonwealth should track across parts of
Ontario and Quebec and into the Maritimes while the sfc ridge
shifts east into the eastern Gulf and into the Southeast to
Appalachians. The wavy frontal zone should sag south across the
Northeast and mid Atlantic during this time slowing and stalling
as it nears the OH River/OH Valley to the Central to the KS/OK
border vicinity to Southern Plains. One or more weak waves may
also form in the lee of the Rockies along the boundary as the
shortwave nears the Four Corners region. Locally across eastern
KY, a rather dry and mild airmass is expected to be in place for
Tuesday ahead of the sagging sfc boundary and in the warm sector.
The airmass should not moisten substantially and PW for Tuesday
per the 00Z LREF mean is progged in the 0.2 to 0.4 inch range or
in the 25th to 50th percentile range. Along with temperatures
expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal on Tuesday afternoon
humidity should bottom out near or below 25 percent for much of
the southern and eastern portions of the area and generally 30
percent or lower elsewhere. Ahead of the front, winds should also
pick up into the 5 to 10 mph range if not slightly stronger near
and north of I-64 corridor while gusts should get into the 15 to
20 mph range at least briefly. This would fall short of critical
fire weather values on sustained winds, but rh is forecast to
reach critical values and keep fuels dry. Ridge/valley temperature
splits are favored with the sfc ridge shifting across the area.
For Monday night, deeper valleys in the east should drop to near
or just below the freezing mark, while coalfield ridges should
generally not fall below the 40 degree mark. Meanwhile, lows
should moderate a few degrees to the mid 30 to upper 30s for
valleys and mid to upper 40s coalfield ridges on Tuesday night.
For Wednesday through Thursday night, shortwave upper ridging is
progged to move across the Southeast to OH Valley on Wednesday
while the shortwave trough moves into the Central to southern
Plains and central Conus. This shortwave should enter the Lower OH
Valley and TN Valley Wed night and cross the area Thursday to
Thursday night. Further west, the next trough will have moved into
the western Conus from the eastern Pacific and should reach the
Interior Northwest/ Northern Rockies vicinity to the Four Corners
vicinity to portions of Mexico. A second shortwave ridge should
move into the Southeast to Lower OH Valley late in the period.
Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure will shift to the east
and southeast of eastern KY on Wednesday while boundary should
remain near or north of the OH River and then lift north as sfc
waves associated with the shortwave to move across the Central
Conus at midweek reaches the OH Valley late on Wednesday night
pass generally west and northwest of the area and weaken. The
associated frontal zone may sag across the mid OH Valley to the
Lower OH Valley to southern Appalachians to the Carolina to VA
coasts by late Thursday night as a deep low should develop further
west along the frontal zone and to the lee of the Rockies in
portions of the Central Plains. Only limited moisture is
anticipated as this shortwave and sfc system work into the area
and only a few sprinkles or isolated to scattered showers are
anticipated on Thursday.
Friday to Sunday, the upper level trough should move into the
Plains and then across the Central Conus and to the MS Valley
vicinity by late Saturday and into the eastern Conus on Sunday. As
the deep low moves from the Central Conus toward the Upper MS
Valley and then Great Lakes, the frontal zone initially across or
near the area early on Friday morning should lift north as a warm
front with the region getting into the warm sector. Following
slightly cooler temperatures for Thu afternoon, temperatures
should warm again for Friday ahead of the next approaching system.
The first cold front associated with this system should approach
the Lower OH Valley Fri night and move across the Commonwealth for
Saturday into Saturday night. With the warm temperatures
anticipated and some mixing and drying with a downslope component
on Friday, rh could fall to around or below 30 percent for
several eastern and southern locations. Winds in the low levels
should turn generally south to southwest or have a downslope
component for Friday and this combined with moderating
temperatures could again lead to near critical min humidity levels
east of I-75 and south of I-64. Sustained winds may generally be
in the 5 to 15 mph range with gusts as high as 15 to 20 mph or
perhaps slightly stronger. However, the lighter winds are forecast
where the drier humidity is forecast. Uncertainty in wind speeds
and humidity remains though as timing and strength of the late
week system would could lead to higher humidities if weaker/faster
and lower humidity that could linger into Saturday if
stronger/slower. A secondary cold front should sweep across the
Central and into the eastern Great Lakes and OH Valley to end the
period. The late week/weekend system should have more substantial
moisture and lift with these possibly coinciding from Saturday
into Saturday night and or Sunday. Guidance currently has quite a
range in spread from the 25th to 75th percentile per 00Z LREF with
the 25th percentile around 0.45 southeast to 0.8 near Lake
Cumberland/Monticello and the 75th percentile 1.3 inches in the
Big Sandy Valley to about 1.9 inches near Lake Cumberland/Monticello.
Some model runs are substantially higher with as much as 2 to 3
inches for the 00Z LREF 90th percentile of 3.5 inches or more for
max amounts. At this time, the most likely amount are in the 1.1
to 1.7 inch range. However, as the week progresses, how heavy or
not the rainfall ends up should become more certain. if the event
were to end up in the heavier end of guidance, thankfully there
will have been about 9 days prior without substantial rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
High pressure remains overhead for today. VFR conditions will
continue through the period amid periodic high clouds passing
through the area. Winds will generally be light and variable
through the period as well.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JMW
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 9, 1:46 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503091746-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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