PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 1:30 PM CST
449
FXUS63 KPAH 081930
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer temperatures are working towards the area peaking into
early next week.
- The next chance of rain arrives Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning when a few thunderstorms will be possible.
- A strong cold front will move through next weekend that has
the potential to bring a greater risk of thunderstorms and
heavy rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
Light northwesterly winds are decreasing this afternoon as a
surface ridge axis sets up over the area. A large closed upper
low over New Mexico is mostly dominating the rest of the CONUS
weather this afternoon with clouds forming to our southwest.
This low will weaken, open up and track eastward through the
day today. Guidance is in good agreement in keeping rain to the
south of the CWA although clouds will likely spread across the
area tonight and remain in place tomorrow. By Monday this trough
moves out and we move into an almost wholesale pattern change
with the average of upper flow turning more southerly with
repeated a series of highly amplified troughs working on to the
US west coast.
This shifts our low level winds more southerly as heights rise
and temperatures warm across the region with highs rising into
the 60s and 70s. A relatively weak shortwave moves overhead
Thursday and coupled with the increased heat ant column moisture
a fair chance of showers and even thunderstorms appears in the
forecast. Mid-level lapse rates are pretty steep so we may have
to watch for some small hail with some of this activity.
A more robust and synoptically classic rain/thunder threat
develops by Friday into Saturday night. This signal has been
consistent for the last few days featuring broad troughing over
the plains and an initial leading negatively tilted trough that
closes off as it moves just northeast of the area. A 130-150 kt
jet maxima to the southeast of this trough becomes very
diffluent east of the pinching trough as a surface low over
IA/NE deepens to 975ish mb. This pulls rich Gulf moisture into
the area. Surface dewpoints go above 60 degrees with 850mb winds
over 60kts. A secondary trough then moves towards the area
Saturday night. The GFS in particular then produces prodigious
rainfall rates through Saturday evening. The overall synoptic
pattern coupled with existing moisture richness over the
southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche looks to be favorable for
severe weather and flash flood potential. CIPS analog and CSU-ML
guidance also seems to favor the potential somewhere in the
mid-Mississippi Valley region. Will be worth keeping a close eye
on.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
VFR conditions with slowing wind speeds are expected this
afternoon. A batch of high clouds will move in from the
southwest through the evening with near calm winds overnight.
VFR conditions are forecast through the overnight and early
Sunday morning period with a east or east northeast wind
starting up later in the morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 8, 1:30 PM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503081930-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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