PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 6:08 PM CST
852
FXUS63 KPAH 080008
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
608 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a small chance of rain (15-30%) tonight across the
Evansville Tri-State and adjacent areas.
- After a brief cool down on Saturday, a major warm up will
begin Sunday and continue through most of next week.
Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be 10-15 degrees
above normal.
- The next chance of widespread rain and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will be Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Updated aviation section for 00z TAF package.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Tonight through Saturday night...A surface cold front associated
with a roughly 1000 mb surface low passing eastward across
central IL and IN will pass through the region tonight. The
front will be moisture-starved, but may produce isolated rain
activity across the EVV Tri-State during the early morning hours
Saturday. The front will clear the region by Saturday morning,
setting the stage for a brief cool down to open the weekend.
Temperatures Saturday will be about 5 degrees below normal. A
southern stream disturbance will pass through the Mid-South
Saturday night, but dry northerly flow should keep rain activity
south of the forecast area.
Sunday through Thursday night...A major warming trend will
begin Sunday, and continue through much of next week. As thermal
ridging increases, temperatures at 850 mb will warm to the 90th
percentile, which will yield high temperatures in the middle to
upper 60s on Monday and the lower to middle 70s Tuesday through
Thursday. We may have elevated fire weather conditions Monday
and Tuesday, as Gulf moisture return will be slow to move into
the region despite breezy southerly winds. The next chance of
widespread rainfall will arrive late Wednesday into early
Thursday as surface low pressure passes over or just north of
the region. Yesterday there was a small concern of severe
thunderstorm potential with this system, but the southern shift
in the path of the surface low will likely keep that risk south
of the area at this time. That being said, there does look to be
some elevated instability that could produce a few thunderstorm
Wednesday night over southeast Missouri into far western
Kentucky.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Southwest to west winds at 8-14kts with gusts of 20-25kts will
shift to the north between 05z-10z. VFR conditions expected
through 07z. Low VFR clouds associated with a cold front will
spread across the TAF sites from north to south after 05z, with
MVFR cigs between 07z-14z. A brief shower is possible at
KEVV/KOWB. After 14z, scattered VFR clouds with north winds
around 10kts expected. No vsby restrictions through the TAF
period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...RST
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 7, 6:08 PM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503080008-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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