IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 4, 1:13 AM EST
741
FXUS63 KIWX 040613
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
113 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain showers are possible early this morning into the daytime,
then a more steady, widespread rain moves in tonight into
Wednesday. Rain totals by Wednesday evening will range from
half an inch to around one inch, highest amounts west of US
31.
- Rain transitions to snow Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Snow accumulations up to an inch are possible, with
the highest totals west of I 69 north of US 6.
- Breezy tonight and Wednesday. Becoming windy Wednesday night
into Thursday with northwest winds gusting up to 40 mph at
times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
High pressure centered over West Virginia continues to bring mainly
dry weather to our forecast area. A few scattered sprinkles will be
possible this afternoon and evening east of I-69 as a warm front
lifts north through the Midwest. It will be dry overnight with lows
in the mid 30s. Radiational cooling will be limited by increasing
cloud cover.
Scattered rain chances arrive by daybreak as the system we've been
advertising over the past few days arrives. Currently, the area of
low pressure we are awaiting is ejecting out of the Colorado
Rockies. It will traverse the Central Plains and deepen
overnight into the day Tuesday before lifting northeast through
the Midwest. Scattered showers could start as early as daybreak
Tuesday as the system's attendant warm front lifts northward. A
lull is possible in the afternoon/evening before periods of
moderate to heavy rain are likely Tuesday evening into early
Wednesday. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday. (With the start of severe weather
season right around the corner, it is worth noting that if there
are any storms, they will have some instability and a lot of
shear to tap into. Not expecting anything severe, but we are in
the SPC Day 2 and Day 2 outlooks for general thunderstorms.)
With the low taking more of a westerly track than previously
anticipated and the convection that will fire up in the Mid and
Lower Mississippi Valley, confidence in widespread, soaking
rain is decreasing. The highest rain totals are likely to be
found in northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan. A
series of strong 500mb shortwaves will provide ample lift,
however in addition to the aforementioned system track changes,
a mid level dry slot on Wednesday will likely provide some dry
hours and cap rain totals below 1 inch area-wide. Some
additional rain is likely during the afternoon Wednesday as the
center of the circulation passes through, but it is likely be
lighter and more scattered than what falls Tuesday night. As
colder air wraps around the backside of the system, a brief
changeover snow is expected later Wednesday (with accumulations
less than 1") as winds shift to the northwest. This strong low
pressure system will cause a tight pressure gradient to develop
over the Midwest, which means windy conditions are expected
later Tuesday and especially on Wednesday evening through
Thursday on the CAA side of the system. Wind gusts will be up to
30 to 35 mph Tuesday night, then as high as 40 mph Wednesday
night into Thursday. Temperatures will be very mild Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the 50s. As the system departs,
temperatures quickly fall into the 30s on Thursday with a cold
frontal passage.
Additional rain/snow chances are possible Friday but lots of
uncertainty remains at this time. Temperatures remain seasonable to
slightly below normal with potential for briefly colder weather over
the weekend. In the extended 8 to 14 day outlook, above normal
temperatures are favored.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2025
VFR conditions to start the period with rain showers developing
late tonight into Thursday morning. KSBN has the best chance and
longest duration of showers today. KFWA may see some light
showers late tonight into the morning, however there will likely
be a break until later in the afternoon and evening when the
more widespread rain moves in. Both sites are likely to stay
VFR until after 00z, then we will likely drop to MVFR
ceilings/visibilities. IFR visibilities are possible after 3z
tonight, however held off for now given lower confidence [best
potential beyond the TAF period]. LLWS is expected through the
morning hours as the LLJ strengthens to around 45 knots, and
then again tonight as we decouple.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...MCD
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 4, 1:13 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503040613-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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