PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 4, 11:53 AM CST
533
FXUS63 KPAH 041753
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1153 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and isolated storms expected today. Can't rule out a
strong to severe storm in the afternoon.
- Windy today and tomorrow with gusts of 35 to 40 mph at times.
A Wind Advisory is in effect for both days.
- Behind the cold front expect cooler temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday. Small (20-30%) rain chances return Friday into
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
A potent, 980mb Colorado Low is moving through the Central Plains
then up towards the Great Lakes today and tomorrow. Expect
widespread rain and some thunderstorms. Instability and sfc level
moisture return are fairly limited, but shear is rather high. So
there is a limited severe threat in the afternoon and evening (SPC
Marginal Risk).
There is also a rather tight pressure gradient with this system
which will lead to strong winds today and tomorrow with gusts
of 35 to 40 mph. Therefore a long Wind Advisory has been issued
for both days. CAMS like the HRRR look to be overdone with the
winds mainly due to an over mixing bias. It won't take much
mixing though to pull down some 40+ mph gusts as there is a
strong 850mb low level jet of 75-80 kts.
Behind the cold front Wednesday temperatures will fall into the
upper 30s to lower 40s in the afternoon due to strong cold air
advection. With this cold air we could see a few snow flakes in the
far northeast counties with the wrap around precipitation as
the low departs.
After brief ridging on Thursday another, weaker low pressure system
moves through bringing back some light (20-30%) rain chances. Then
Saturday there is another low to the south and depending on where
exactly this tracks is whether or not we have more rain chances.
Right now the GFS brings this low far enough north that we see some
rain chances, and that is what is included in the NBM currently for
Saturday. By Monday temperatures start to warm up and we could see
extended warmth through next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025
South southeast winds will gust over 30kts at times this
afternoon. An area of showers will spread east across the entire
area by 00Z. Winds will likely subside a bit during the rain,
but any heavier showers or thunderstorms could bring down gusts
of 35kts or greater. The rain will last 3 to 4 hours and MVFR
conditions are expected, with a brief period of IFR rain
possible. A period of VFR conditions is expected behind the
rain this evening into the overnight hours. MVFR conditions and
scattered showers will spread back southeast across the area
late tonight and through the morning. Winds will shift to the
south tonight and then to the west in the morning. Gusts over
30kts will be possible after sunrise.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ Wednesday for INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DRS
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 4, 11:53 AM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503041753-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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