PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 3, 6:15 PM CST
238
FXUS63 KPAH 040015
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
615 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and isolated storms on Tuesday, with amounts of 0.5 to 1"
expected. Can't completely rule out a strong storm.
- Windy conditions are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday with wind gusts
in excess of 40 mph possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect
for both days.
- Temperatures trend much cooler Wednesday into Thursday before
rebounding late week. Small rain chances return Friday into
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Latest surface analysis shows a surface low developing in eastern
Colorado. This low will translates east towards Kansas City on
Tuesday and northeast up into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. A
trailing cold front will sweep across the mid Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday night. Guidance has been consistent on deepening the low to
near 980mb off to our northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
will result in a tight pressure gradient setting up and a prolonged
period of strong winds across a large portion of the country.
The most impactful element of this system continues to look like
it'll be the strong gradient winds. Instability and low level
moisture return are really lacking this far north, so the severe
storm threat is quite low (currently in a marginal Day 2 from SPC).
However, given the very impressive wind fields it still can't be
ruled out for any convective element to bring some stronger near
severe gusts to the surface. A very strong low level jet is forecast
to develop later Tuesday with 850mb flow of 75-80 kts. The ECMWF
ESAT puts this at 5 standard deviations above normal!
Decided to go ahead and issue a Wind Advisory for the entire cwa
from 18z Tuesday to 00z Thursday for simplicity sake. Soundings
suggest very limited mixing on Tuesday, especially the further north
and west in the cwa you go. However, with the strong low level jet
pushing in we won't have to mix very high at all to tap into some
near 40 mph gusts. Most CAMs are very bullish on 40+ mph winds
across the Missouri bootheel into west Kentucky late afternoon and
early evening ahead of the main convective line. Hard to completely
discount this, although they do tend to overdue situations like
this. Regardless, it will be quite breezy on Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Winds should slacken some overnight before ramping
back up on the backside of the system on Wednesday. Confidence
is higher on Wednesday for widespread 35 to 40 mph gusts. In
collaboration with neighboring offices it seemed best to just
issue a long duration advisory to cover both segments.
Strong cold air advection on Wednesday will lead to a very
unpleasant day with temperatures falling into the upper 30s to low
40s during the afternoon. It's quite possible that some
snowflakes may mix in with some of the wrap around showers
across our northern counties Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Models continue to suggest a weak surface low moving across the area
on Friday, but most guidance suggests very limited QPF with it. The
GFS is the outlier bringing a secondary stronger wave across the
lower Ohio Valley on Saturday into Saturday night. Most other
solutions keep this second wave much weaker and suppressed to the
south. For now will keep smaller PoPs in on Friday and then a
primarily dry weekend.
Extended models indicate a nice warming trend with highs in the 60s
likely for much of the week of March 10-14. This may be accompanied
by one or more storm systems, but it's way too far out to speculate
on any details.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Clouds will continue to build across the terminals tonight with
lowering cigs. South winds up to 10kts will remain with 2kft
winds increasing as well which will keep the LLWS mention into
the forecast. Winds increase further on Tuesday as a deep low
pressure organizes to the west. Gusts of 25-30kts are possible
by late morning and into the afternoon hours. Scattered rain
showers will spread east across the terminals during this time
as well. Toward the latter half of the forecast period, MVFR
cigs and visby spread eastward, especially across the western
terminals before 00z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory from noon CST /1 PM EST/ Tuesday to 6 PM CST /7
PM EST/ Wednesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...AD
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 3, 6:15 PM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503040015-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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