ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 3, 10:43 PM EST
940
FXUS61 KILN 040343
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1043 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will move out of the Plains and
across the Great Lakes region through mid week. This will bring
widespread precipitation and gusty winds to the Ohio Valley
Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Southwest flow aloft will increase overnight as high pressure
continues to move off to the east. This will result in mid and
high level clouds tonight. With some weak isentropic lift
developing, suppose a stray sprinkle or light rain shower cannot
be ruled out from the mid cloud deck mainly across the north.
Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Strong mid level energy moving out of the Rockies will help the
surface low over the Plains deepen through the day on Tuesday
as it lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes through Tuesday
night. Very strong wind fields will develop aloft ahead of this
with a strengthening 70-80 knot 850 mb jet pushing into the
western Tennessee Valley Tuesday afternoon before lifting up
through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night. The better forcing looks
to remain mainly off to our west through the day on Tuesday.
Will therefore continue to maintain a dry forecast across much
of our area and only bring some slight chance pops into our far
west. In the good WAA pattern, highs on Tuesday will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
As good low level convergence develops ahead of the approaching
jet, widespread rain showers will work into our west Tuesday
evening and quickly overspread the rest of our area Tuesday
night. Instability looks to remain fairly marginal and elevated
so expect any embedded thunder to remain isolated. Gradient
winds will begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday
night. Given the strength of the low level jet, some gusty
winds can be expected heading into Tuesday night. There is some
uncertainty as to how much the winds off the surface will be
able to mix down to the surface Tuesday night, especially once
we begin to saturate the low levels. Will generally go with
gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range. However, some locally higher
gusts may be possible near the onset of pcpn as the low levels
will still be dry, resulting in the potential for some
evaporatively enhanced gusts.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the start of the long term period, occlusion between the sfc low
pressure and its parent mid/upper level circulation will be ongoing
as the system pivots to the NE into the central Great Lakes. As this
occurs, the first of two somewhat distinct cold fronts will push E
through the area during the afternoon, followed by a secondary cold
front during the evening.
From mid morning into early afternoon, a mid level S/W rotating
around the parent mid level circulation will coincide with some
meager diurnal instability to result in the development of numerous
SHRA, which should be most numerous in coverage through early
afternoon. With good forcing and an increasingly cold profile, there
may even be some TS during this time frame, although the instby may
be too shallow to support more than an isolated instance. However,
some gusty winds will be possible with the SHRA as the convective
processes help translate some stronger winds from aloft to the
surface.
On the backside of the departing system, with the low center pulling
off to the ENE, a tightening pressure gradient combined with a well-
mixed BL will lead to wind gusts on the order of 35 to 45 MPH,
particularly during the daytime. The gustiness, however, will
continue into the evening/overnight amidst increased/continued CAA,
so the translation of stronger gusts to the sfc will not be solely
confined to just the daytime hours.
Much colder air will filter into the region Wednesday
night/Thursday, with some brief RA/SN mix very possible before the
pcpn clears out altogether into the daytime Thursday. Another chance
for light RA/SN will arrive Friday night into early Saturday before
drier conditions return for the remainder of the weekend into early
next week.
High pressure is expected to return Saturday night into Sunday.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals toward the end of the
long term period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Southwest flow will increase overnight into Tuesday ahead of an
approaching low pressure system. This will lead to mid level
clouds this evening and then Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. Can not rule out a stray sprinkle or light rain shower
this evening but chances are too low to mention in the TAFs.
With a strengthening low level jet, LLWS will be possible at
times late tonight into Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night.
Southerly surface winds will increase through the day on
Tuesday with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range from late morning
and into the afternoon.
Rain moves in Tuesday evening initially from a VFR deck with
MVFR clouds holding off until after midnight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday
night into Wednesday night. MVFR ceilings may linger into
Thursday. Wind gusts near or greater than 40 knots possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...AR
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 3, 10:43 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503040343-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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