IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 3, 3:26 AM EST
360
FXUS63 KIND 030826
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
326 AM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Partly cloudy and milder today
- Rain showers Tuesday-Wednesday...will include steadier rain
Tuesday night with rumbles of thunder and isolated downpours
- Rain ending as snow showers Wednesday night...before a few more,
mainly rain, showers Friday-Friday night
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
Synopsis...
Latest surface analysis is indicating the surface ridge has shifted
east across the Appalachians and eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the
H20 vapor imagery was indicating an upper ridge across the northern
Plains with a broad east coast trough and an upper low across
northeastern Nevada and also a short wave across eastern Oklahoma.
Fast northwest flow aloft ahead of the ridge was bringing in some
patches of high clouds across central Indiana per the RGB Nighttime
Microphysics satellite loop while there were thicker mid and high
clouds, associated with the Oklahoma short wave, that were arcing
over the Ozarks and southeast across the southern states.
Rest of the Overnight and Today...
Light south to calm winds have done little to impede the
temperatures from dropping mostly into the middle 20s across central
overnight due to the mostly clear skies and light to calm winds.
Sunrise temperatures should be in the lower 20s and possibly even
upper teens over some locales. However, as the high moves further to
the east and the upper ridge approaches, warm advection on the heels
of modest return flow off the Gulf and sufficient sunshine should
allow temperatures to return to near or slightly above normal. DESI
grandensemble interquartile 2m afternoon temperatures in the middle
40s to lower 50s look good for afternoon highs, although if the
increasing mid and high clouds suggested by satellite trends and Hi-
Res soundings have more coverage than anticipated, these
temperatures may be a few degrees too optimistic.
Tonight...
Cyclogenesis is expected to kick in tonight to the lee of the
Rockies as an upper ridge passes across central Indiana. Meanwhile,
return flow off the Gulf and a tightening surface pressure gradient
will allow for warm and moist advection across the area. This will
result in thickening mid clouds per Hi-Res soundings and perhaps a
few showers over the upper Wabash Valley. However, very dry air
below 5K feet will be hard to overcome, so do not expect much
coverage and or QPF. The thickening clouds and warm advection should
result in little temperature drop with overnight lows perhaps
occurring early and only in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Tuesday...
Continued warm and moist advection and the nose of a 70 knot low
level jet moving into Kentucky, ahead of the strengthening upstream
system, should result in widespread rain over all but far east
central sections by Tuesday afternoon. Any instability should remain
well south and west of the area, so not looking to see any lightning
at least until Tuesday evening. Despite the thick cloud cover, the
strong warm advection should allow temperatures to sore to well
above normal with afternoon highs in the lower 60s possible,
especially south of I-70. Sounding momentum transfer supports a
breezy to windy day with gusts to 30+ mph possible during the
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...
Models are in good agreement that a 983 millibar surface low will
start off just north of Kansas City at 00z Tuesday and move into
west central Illinois around 12z Wednesday and to Lake Huron by 00z
Thursday. Tuesday night a 70 knot low level jet will pump in PWATS
to over an inch or near the max moving average of nearby upper
air stations per the SPC sounding climatology site. In addition,
models and BUFKIT hodographs hint at some weak instability and the
area will be in the left exit region of a 100 knot upper jet
streak. These ingredients support a threat for heavy rain at times
Tuesday night, and the combination of deep 70 knot 0-6km shear
and the limited instability suggests an isolated severe storm can
not be ruled out but the better chances will be well south and
west of the area where the instability will be much better.
Storm total QPF of up to an inch of rain looks good, although
localized areas within the heavier cells could see over an inch
before the systems moves far enough away Wednesday evening. A more
widespread impact with this slowly departing system will likely be
garident winds gusting up to 30-40 mph by midday Wednesday...and
into Wednesday night. Soundings and critical thicknesses suggest
some snow could mix on the way out but likely not be a big impact.
Thursday through Sunday night...
Surface high pressure will move across the southern states and Ohio
Valley Thursday and Thursday night. This will return a brief dry
period with below normal temperatures. More rain and moderating
temperatures will arrive for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1026 PM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
Impacts: Non-convective low level wind shear is possible at KIND
after 09z Tuesday
Discussion:
Hi-Res soundings suggest mid and high clouds will be increasing
later today, otherwise light south to calm winds overnight will
increase to around 10 knots this afternoon as the high moves further
to the east. In addition, non-convective low level wind shear is
possible at KIND after 09z Tuesday as boundary layer winds increase
ahead of the next system.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 3, 3:26 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503030826-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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