ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 3, 12:42 PM EST
779
FXUS61 KILN 031742
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1242 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cool conditions for the start of the working week as surface high
pressure moves off toward the Atlantic Coast. A deepening low pressure
system will impact the region mid week, bringing gusty winds, rainfall,
and warmer temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Return flow will develop through the day as surface high
pressure moves off to the east. This will lead to a continued
increase in mid level clouds and moderating temperatures.
Afternoon highs will be seasonable, ranging from the mid 40s
north to near 50 in the far south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
By Monday evening, the surface low will be moving east from the
Rockies, into the southern Great Plains, with the Ohio Valley
sandwiched nicely between it and the previously mentioned high
pressure that will now be off over the Atlantic. This promotes
continued strong southerly flow and we'll even have a bit of
early isentropic lift with this system, possibly sparking a rain
shower Monday overnight into Tuesday near the Ohio/Indiana
border. Overnight lows fall into the mid to upper 30s.
By Tuesday morning, southerly winds will be sustained at 10-15
MPH, gusting into the 20s for much of the area as we enter into
the warm sector for this system. This ushers in balmy warm air
from the Gulf Coast and temperatures rise into the upper 50s
along and north of I-70 and mid/upper 60s along the Ohio River.
Most areas will still be dry at this point, with the bulk of the
precipitation off to our west, though that previously mentioned chance
for rain along the Ohio/Indiana border lingers into the early
afternoon. Otherwise, cloudy skies, unseasonably warm
temperatures, and breezy conditions will be the story for
Tuesday daylight. As we head toward Tuesday evening, a strong
LLJ (see more in the extended discussion below) will begin to
move over the Tri- State and we begin to see showers approaching
the western portion of our CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For Tuesday night, the deepening storm system will move from the
southern Plains to the middle Mississippi River Valley. Our region
will initially be on the warm side of this system, with the first
cold front poised to push east into the region overnight. Strong low
level moist ascent associated with a 70 knot 850 mb LLJ will result
in widespread showers along and ahead of the cold front. It will be
breezy to locally windy. Wind gusts synoptically speaking should
range between 25 and 35 mph. However, some local stronger wind gusts
could occur early on (due to evaporative cooling) before the
atmospheric column fully saturates. There will be a low chance for
thunder due to mainly elevated instability. Low will range from the
upper 40s to the lower 50s.
On Wednesday, occlusion between the surface low pressure and its
parent mid level circulation will be ongoing as they both rotate to
the northeast into the central Great Lakes. As this occurs, the
first cold front will push east, followed by a secondary cold front
moving in from the west/southwest during the afternoon and evening.
A mid level s/wv rotating around the parent mid level circulation
will interact with some diurnal instability to result in showers,
most numerous from late morning into the afternoon hours. Given
strong wind fields aloft, the strongest wind gusts will likely occur
on Wednesday where gusts will generally range between 35 and 45 mph.
Some locally higher gusts may occur, and therefore a wind headline
may be needed at some point. It will be relatively warm before CAA
arrives from the west late. Highs will range from the lower 50s west
to the lower 60s east.
For Wednesday night, cyclonic flow on the back side of the departing
low will interact with a surface trough, resulting in rain and/or
snow showers before the pcpn tapers off from west to east late.
Little snow accumulation is expected. It will remain windy as the
wind direction veers to the northwest. Low will fall into the upper
20s to the lower 30s.
On Thursday, the storm system will pivot northeast into southeast
Canada. CAA stratocumulus will eventually give way to some clearing
from the west during the afternoon. It will remain windy, especially
for the first half of the day. It will also be much colder with
highs ranging from the upper 30s to the mid 40s.
High pressure will then traverse the region from west to east
Thursday night, allowing winds to diminish. Lows will range from the
upper 20s to the lower 30s.
For Friday into Saturday, the next weather system will quickly move
east through the Ohio Valley, bringing a chance of rain. A little
bit of snow may mix in early on Saturday across our far north. It
will be warm ahead of the low pressure system on Friday with highs
ranging from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south. After lows
from the lower 30s north to the upper 30s south, highs on Saturday
will range from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south.
High pressure is expected to return Saturday night into Sunday.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Southwest flow will increase tonight into Tuesday ahead of an
approaching low pressure system. This will lead to a fair
amount of mainly mid level clouds through the TAF period. It
will be tough to rule out a stray sprinkle or light rain
shower, but chances appear to be low enough to leave any mention
out of the TAFs. With a strengthening low level jet, LLWS will
be possible at times late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile southerly surface winds will increase through the day
on Tuesday with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range becoming
possible from late morning and into the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday
night into Wednesday night. MVFR ceilings may linger into
Thursday. Wind gusts near or greater than 40 knots possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...JGL
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 3, 12:42 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503031742-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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