LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 11:00 PM CST ...New AVIATION...
926
FXUS64 KLIX 030500
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1100 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
Issued a brief ZFP update to lower temperatures 2-3 degrees in
some of the normally cooler locations such as the Pascagoula and
Pearl River Basins and right around Houma, where temperatures have
dropped pretty quickly this evening and are already within a few
degrees of their forecast lows. The main questions for the
overnight period are 1...will clouds associated with a shortwave
over Oklahoma spread far enough south to blunt any radiational
cooling? and 2...whether winds will increase from near calm prior
to sunrise?
Forecast lows at McComb and Baton Rouge on the other hand, may
actually be too cool, as temperatures there haven't been falling,
even though dew points are in the 30s. We'll continue to monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 358 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
A long wave upper level currently encompassing the Northeast is on
its out, entering the western Atlantic. The drier airmass from the
backdoor front associated with this system that moved in yesterday
continues to advect in as the surface ridge centered near the Ohio
River Valley is still spreading southward. However, its quickly
shifting east and will lose its south surge of this airmass just as
fast. In fact, surface winds are already starting to have more of an
easterly component to it.
A short wave is currently moving across the Texas Panhandle. Tonight
into Monday, it will weaken as it reaches and passes through the
lower Mississippi Valley. CAMs continue to indicate the potential
for scattered showers develop locally as this feature moves through.
Moisture will most certainly be the limiting factor of if any
showers do actually develop. However, decided to add low POPs to
northwestern portions of the CWA (think Baton Rouge metro and points
NW of there) for the morning hours. Otherwise, no appreciable weather
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 358 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
The main potential weather impacts in the upcoming week are very
strong winds/gusts and severe thunderstorms on Mardi Gras day.
Satellite imagery shows an upper level trough moving into the PAC
Northwest. This is the feature that global models show tracking
across the southwestern US Monday and into the Central Plains
Tuesday. Timing hasn't changed much at all in the last 48 hours.
Might see some change as the trough comes farther inland and is
sampled more but otherwise am becoming more confident. Based on
current solutions, a deep surface low (985-975mb) will track across
KS and MO Tuesday. That deep of a low will most certainly bring very
strong gradient winds over the entire CWA. Model boundary layer
winds suggest Wind Advisory criteria will be possible with gusts
upwards of 30 to 45 mph or higher. 10% exceedence numbers are gusts
above 50 mph. Looking at various ensemble model guidance that
compares the current event to previous ones, they suggest an
anomalously strong wind event...something on the order of an event
that's only seen a few times each century. That, combined with
increasing NBM probability guidance, have decided to issue a High
Wind Watch for the entire forecast area. As the event nears, we'll
have to go with either a Wind Advisory, High Wind Warning or a combo
of both. Thus, certainly expect plenty of shear regardless of level.
Model soundings are showing helicity values 500-800 m2/s2.
Looking at model soundings, still thinking that low level
thermodynamics will be a key component to severe weather development
over the CWA. Looked at NAM/GFS buffer soundings and they show
somewhat weak lapse rates across the forecast area in the lower
levels. Points along I-12 and north appear to eliminate that by
cooling in that layer as the surface trough approaches in SW MS and
the Florida Parishes. South of there, cooling isn't as significant,
possibly not enough for convection to overcome. In addition,
nearshore water temps in the mid 50s to 60 degrees could put a
hamper on things too, keeping a shallow inversion in place which is
what KGPT sounding shows. That can be overcome by frontal lift or
surface temps warmer than what is currently forecasted. With all
that, thinking the potential for severe weather is certainly there
for points along/north of I-12 corridor and lower (not zero chance)
south of there. Looking at analogs, sometimes the local CWA had
widespread damaging wind reports and some tornadoes. Other events we
were "the launching pad" for JAN and MOB office CWAs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
VFR conditions in place and expected to remain through the
forecast period. Forecast soundings would indicate the potential
for some mid-level clouds, perhaps as early as midday Monday.
Ceilings are unlikely to get below FL050 through 06z Tuesday, but
ceilings perhaps as low as FL040 could reach KMSY prior to the end
of their forecast period, possibly as soon as 09z Tuesday.
Sustained southeast winds in the 10-15 knot range should arrive
around midday Monday, but any significantly stronger winds will
probably occur beyond 12z Tuesday. Aviation interests will need to
keep a close eye on later forecasts as wind fields are expected to
be rather strong on Tuesday, with a period of strong convection
expected, most likely during the afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025
Weakening pressure gradient behind the backdoor front that recently
moved through has allowed offshore winds to relax some. Thus, have
ended the Small Craft Advisory that was in effect today. However,
recent obs do show that open Gulf waters are still in the 15 to 20
knot range which requires the Exercise Caution headline.
Relatively benign weather conditions expected and Monday as the
upper level trough over the northeaster US and surface ridge to the
north shifts east.
By early Tuesday, onshore winds will begin strengthening
considerably ahead of the next approaching potent upper trough.
Models continue to show it to be quite sharp with a deep surface low
associated with it moving through the mid section of the country
Tuesday into Wednesday. Am becoming more confident that very tight
pressure gradient will bring high end Small Craft conditions to the
coastal waters early to late Tuesday. At peak, model boundary layer
winds could be upwards of 30 to 50 knots, most of which would
translate to the surface. Have gone ahead and issued a Gale Watch
for the timeframe when peak winds expected and a Small Craft
Advisory for the 12 hour period beforehand when winds begin
strengthening, but not yet into Gale.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 42 71 55 74 / 0 20 0 90
BTR 46 75 59 80 / 0 20 0 100
ASD 44 72 58 78 / 0 10 0 70
MSY 51 73 61 78 / 0 0 0 80
GPT 46 68 57 73 / 0 10 0 50
PQL 41 71 56 76 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...ME
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 11:00 PM CST ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503030500-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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