IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 11:32 AM EST
305
FXUS63 KIND 021632
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1132 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunny today...ahead of moderating temperatures Monday-Tuesday
- Potential for moderate/heavy rainfall Tuesday-Wednesday...with
possible strong thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night
- Snow showers possible Wednesday night...with seasonably cool
conditions continuing into next weekend
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 933 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
Surface analysis late this morning shows strong high pressure
centered over southwest Indiana, dominating the weather across our
region. GOES16 shows mostly clear skies across the forecast area
with the exception of a few high clouds passing aloft over IL.
Aloft, water vapor continues to show strong ridging in place over
the Rockies and a deep trough in place over the east coast. This was
resulting northwest flow across Central Indiana and continued
subsidence.
ILX 12Z sounding shows a very dry column due to the subsidence and
associated high pressure as do the forecast soundings. CU will not
be expected. Thus a mostly sunny day with light winds will continue.
A few CI will be expected passing within the flow aloft. Forecast
soundings suggest highs in the mid to upper 30s which appear to be
on target. Overall only minor adjustments needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
Remainder of the Overnight...
Broad surface high pressure, currently over the Missouri Valley,
will build in across central Indiana the remainder of the overnight
and today. The weak surface high pressure gradient and very dry
column have allowed temperatures to drop to around 20 degrees and
below...and with dew points in the single digits and lower teens,
lows early this morning in the teens are likely.
Today...
Broad surface high pressure over the area along with a very dry
column, will result in a cold but sunny day. With lack of
significant warm advection, temperatures should be near 10 degrees
below normal with afternoon highs only likely to reach the upper 30s
to lower 40s per DESI grand ensembles interquartile 2m temperatures.
Tonight...
Tonight will see another nice radiational cooling setup with the dry
column continuing along with the weak surface low pressure gradient.
With the center of the surface high moving off to the east though,
it may not be quite as cold as it will be this morning but still
below normal with lows in the lower to middle 20s looking good.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
All eyes will continue to focus on the big system that will likely
bring widespread to severe weather to the South on Tuesday and
Tuesday night and perhaps some strong or even severe thunderstorms
and heavy rain across parts of the Ohio Valley.
Prior to the potential fireworks related to the aforementioned
potent system, upper ridging and return flow will start off a warm
up. Soundings support an increase in mid clouds on Monday but
southerly winds should allow temperatures to warm back up to near
normal anyway with afternoon highs in the 40s.
Cyclogenesis will likely be in progress to the lee of the Rockies
Monday night in the form of a deepening closed low, over western
Kansas, and a sharp trough across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.
In response, a surface low will spin up near the upper low. The
surface and upper lows are expected to deepen and lift northeast to
the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A north and south 70 knot low level
jet and 100 knot upper jet will invade the Ohio Valley Tuesday night
bringing the potential for heavy rainfall. The low level jet will
focus in PWATs to 1.25 inches across the area. 1.25 inch PWATs are
at max moving average of nearby upper air stations, for this time of
year per the SPC site sounding climatology data. The combo of deep
anomalous moisture, strong synoptic forcing and kinematics support
widespread rain and heavy at times. Flooding may also be a concern.
Confidence is not great there will be enough instability across even
our far southern counties for the potential for severe weather but
it won't take much combined with the strong bulk shear to spin up a
severe storm or too late Tuesday into Tuesday night. That said, the
severe potential certainly looks like it will be well south of south
central Indiana, mainly across the South. The rain will likely hang
around through Wednesday before high pressure brings in dry but more
seasonable weather in on Thursday following the strong warm
advection that will allow temperatures to climb to well above normal
with the Tuesday system.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1130 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
Impacts: None; VFR Conditions are expected.
Discussion:
No changes to the ongoing forecast as VFR conditions will prevail
over central Indiana through Monday morning due to the strong and
large surface high pressure system passing through the Ohio Valley.
As warm air advection begins today and tonight and the high pressure
system drifts east, some mid level clouds with VFR cigs will arrive
late Monday morning.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Puma
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 2, 11:32 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503021632-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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