ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 6:20 AM EST
816
FXUS61 KILN 011120
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
620 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A mid level trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley today. It will be much colder, along with some
chances for flurries and snow showers. The mid level trough will
move east tonight, allowing high pressure to build into the
area from the west. The high will then settle across the Ohio
Valley on Sunday with below normal temperatures persisting.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mid level trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley today. The combination of low level moist CAA,
cyclonic flow aloft, and developing shallow instability will
result in considerable cloudiness along with some chances for
flurries and snow showers. The best chance for light pcpn will
peak during the mid afternoon hours. Temperatures will not warm
up too much from what our lows will be near sunrise. Highs will
range from near 30 north to near 40 south. It will also be
brisk, so it will feel much colder.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As the mid level trough exits to the east, subsidence will
occur in its wake, allowing clouds to eventually scatter
overnight. Any lingering flurries or snow showers will diminish
and end during the evening. High pressure will then build into
the region from the west. This will allow the pressure gradient
to relax. And with diurnal cooling, decoupling will take place,
so winds will diminish as well. It will be cold with lows
ranging from the mid to the upper teens.
On Sunday, high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley.
Under mostly sunny skies, it will remain cold. Highs will range
from the mid to the upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will slide off to the east and the CWA
will be on the backside of this high. Cool, dry conditions
persist through Sunday night, with overnight lows in the low
20s.
By Monday, we'll be on the cusp of a broader pattern change
that will occur throughout the week. Synoptically, a shortwave
moving through the southern stream will be weakening and getting
reabsorbed into the larger flow. This will act to reinforce the
WAA already in place over the Ohio Valley. As this decaying
system pushes through, we may have a slight chance for showers
on Monday night into Tuesday. Monday will be warmer, with highs
in the 40s.
Tuesday, our attention turns to the robust system that will be
heading toward our region. A digging trough off of the west
coast will move over the Rockies, sparking rapid and deep
surface cyclogenesis on the eastern side of the mountains. This
surface low will then travel northeast toward the Ohio Valley/
western Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday.
Sensible weather wise... Expect southerly flow on Tuesday with
rain showers as isentropic lift moves into the region during the
day on Tuesday. High temperatures in the upper 50s, perhaps low
60s along the Ohio River. Tds remain only in the 40s throughout
the day on Tuesday. As the system moves through the area, the
southern half of the CWA will likely be briefly warm-sectored
and we'll see Tds in the upper 40s/low 50s move through during
Tuesday overnight into Wednesday. BUFKIT model soundings do
indicate some weak elevated instability during this time, so did
force a slight chance of thunder into the grids. This overnight
time frame looks to be the most favorable for any convection as
the first of two cold fronts traverses through the area.
However, quite a meager thermal profile (low Tds, little to no
instability) may inhibit some of the threat (though, fropa may
help overcome this). With that being said, upper level winds
will be cranking as the low barrels by just northwest of us.
Should any storms force through, strong wind gusts translating
down will be the primary threat, particularly in our southern
counties.
Wednesday arrives quite breezy and there is a strong synoptic
signal for a very windy day. Have bumped up winds quite a bit
from the NBM, however, as we get closer, they might need to get
bumped even higher. We'll see. Showers remain in the forecast
for Wednesday as the parent system is still in the vicinity with
large scale cyclonic flow. After the first fropa Tuesday night,
a secondary front will move through (marked but a much more
drastic drop in Tds) Wednesday afternoon. On the backside of
this front, we'll get a blast of cold air. Any lingering showers
may transition to a brief rain/snow mix. We dry out Wednesday
night and temperatures fall into the 30s, with breezy
west/northwesterly winds.
Surface high pressure moves in near the end of the working week
under the upper level convergent flow and we briefly dry out.
This is short lived, as long range guidance is already hinting
at another disturbance around the weekend timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mid level trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley today. In the CAA pattern off the Great Lakes,
plenty of low level moisture in the form of stratocumulus clouds
will advect southward across the terminals this morning.
Ceilings will mainly be VFR, but some pockets of MVFR will be
possible. Northwest winds will range between 10 and 15 knots
with gusts up to 25 knots. In the developing shallow instability
and cyclonic flow aloft, a few flurries or isolated snow
showers will be possible across the northern terminals.
For this afternoon, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will
continue. Although ceilings will be mainly VFR, shallow
instability will be at its maximum, especially between 17Z and
22Z. This shallow instability combined with cyclonic flow aloft
will result in some scattered snow showers and flurries. Some
MVFR visibilities could occur in the snow showers. Winds will
continue from the northwest between 10 to 15 knots with gusts up
to 25 knots.
For tonight, the mid level trough axis will pass by, allowing
for some subsidence to develop in its wake, which will allow the
clouds to scatter. A few lingering snow showers/flurries will
diminish and end. High pressure to our west will begin to build
east. Thus, the pressure gradient will relax, and with diurnal
cooling, northwest to north winds (and the gustiness) will
diminish.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hickman
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 6:20 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503011120-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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