MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 25, 10:40 PM CST ...New AVIATION...
623
FXUS64 KMOB 260440
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1040 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Patchy to possibly areas of fog with mostly IFR to MVFR
conditions are anticipated to develop overnight then dissipate
early Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are otherwise expected.
Calm or light northwesterly winds overnight transition to a south
to southwest flow at 5 to 10 knots on Wednesday. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 518 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
VFR conditions this evening will be followed by MVFR/IFR
conditions in patches to areas of fog developing overnight. VLIFR
conditions will be possible in localized areas. Winds will be
calm or light and variable tonight, then a southerly to
southwesterly flow at 5 to 10 knots develops on Wednesday. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/
.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 408 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
A surface high pressure ridge axis over the forecast area tonight
will drift off just east of the area Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Dry, rain-free conditions will continue through the near term. The
only forecast issue will be the potential for overnight fog, both
tonight and Wednesday night. There were very patchy areas of fog
last night, and model signals that fog will be a little more
widespread across the region tonight. So, while we are expecting fog
to develop tonight, there is some question as to whether or not we
will have any dense fog (though some model guidance is pointing
toward that). If dense fog does develop, it will be after midnight
into the very early morning hours Wednesday, and primarily around
the Mobile Bay region and along the coast into the western Florida
panhandle. It is possible that we will need a Dense Fog Advisory
late tonight for at least a potion of our forecast area, but based
on current data we will let the evening shift monitor trends and
better pin down where and when such an Advisory will/may be needed.
There is an even better signal for widespread dense fog for
Wednesday night, and with return flow off the Gulf becoming more
established by then as the ridge moves east, this seems very
reasonable. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to
middle 40s over most of the interior, but upper 40s and lower 50s
along the coast. On Wednesday high temperatures will be in the low
to mid 70s across the entire region. Wednesday night lows will be a
little warmer, ranging from the upper 40s to near 50 over inland
areas and low to mid 50s closer to and along the coast. DS/12
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
At the start of the period, an upper-level trough will continue
to dig into the eastern US, moving into the western Atlantic by
Thursday night. In response, a weak cold front will approach and
push through the local region on Thursday. Limited moisture return
and weak forcing should only allow for a few isolated showers to
develop along the front. Otherwise, most of the area should remain
dry. In the wake of the front, a dry airmass will move in for the
weekend thanks to high pressure building in at the surface and a
northwesterly flow pattern aloft. Forecast scenarios begin to
diverge as we get to the start of the week. The GFS continues to
suggest a shortwave trough quickly diving southeast from the
Rockies on Monday, bringing with it an increased chance of showers
and storms. The Euro, on the other hand, allows for upper ridging
to build over the local area, keeping this shortwave well to the
northwest and resulting in a drier scenario. Ensembles are pretty
much evenly split with both scenarios so therefore have capped
rain chances at 20-30% on Monday for this forecast package.
Further adjustments to PoPs are expected over the next few days as
models resolve on a solution. Rain chances increase by late
Tuesday and into midweek as the next storm system begins to
approach the local region. Although details on this system are
very uncertain at this time, long-range solutions from the Euro
ensembles suggest that this will likely be a system that we will
have to keep a close eye on over the coming days. Highs will
generally by in the low to mid 70s throughout the period. Lows
will start off in the low to mid 40s for Thursday and Friday
nights and will gradually climb into the 50s by Monday night. /96
MARINE...
Issued at 408 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Surface high pressure builds east across the marine area through
Wednesday with light offshore flow tonight becoming onshore
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A weak cold front moves across the
marine area on Thursday, with winds shifting back offshore and
increasing slightly. Some patchy fog is expected over the near shore
waters each night. Reduced visibilities due to potentially dense fog
will be the only hazard to small craft this week. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 46 74 52 73 45 71 46 74 / 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 50 71 54 73 50 69 51 72 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 0
Destin 53 69 56 72 51 68 52 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 43 78 49 74 43 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 0 0
Waynesboro 41 76 50 72 40 71 43 75 / 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0
Camden 42 77 49 72 41 69 43 73 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 0 0
Crestview 43 78 49 76 45 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 25, 10:40 PM CST ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502260440-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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