BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 6:20 PM EST
467
FXUS61 KBOX 262320
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
620 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal system will bring a period of rain and snow late
tonight before changing to all rain Thursday. A weak low
pressure system will bring a few rain or snow showers Saturday,
followed by blustery and cold weather Sunday and Monday. Milder
air returns by the middle of next week along with another chance
of rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
620 PM Update:
Key Points:
* Minor travel impacts in northern MA for Thu AM commute
* 18z models trended slightly warmer especially near Mass Pike
No significant changes. Higher clouds were streaming into region
this evening but we'll still see temps drop a bit before thicker
clouds and warm advection get underway overnight. Timing of 3-5
AM Thu for onset looks reasonable based upon HRRR. Model
soundings support light rain for Providence-Boston corridor,
light rain/snow mix for Hartford-Springfield into Worcester and
Lowell, and light snow for higher elevations and Route 2
corridor. Wet bulb cooling could mean a mix into NW RI and
western suburbs of Boston but these areas should change to rain
fairly quickly. Looking for no more than 1-3" in higher terrain
near Berkshires and northern Worcester County and less than an
inch elsewhere north of the Mass Pike.
Not seeing much of a potential for freezing rain during
transition with isothermal soundings so we still don't see a
need for any Winter Weather Advisories but morning commute may
be a little slower than usual near Route 2 corridor in northern
MA, especially early on.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Steady light rain continues through Wednesday morning before the dry
slot begins to work in and scatterers out the rain into hit-or-miss
showers. Hit-or-miss showers continue into the afternoon before the
cold front pushes showers offshore by Thursday evening, drying
things out. Some guidance does show 100-300 J/kg of MUCAPE over Cape
Cod and the Islands on Thursday, which could bring a rumble or two
of thunder with the passage of the cold front. High temperatures
will warm again into the upper 40s to low 50s, with blustery south
winds gusting around 20mph.
A cold front moves offshore by Thursday night, allowing for drying
conditions under westerly flow. Winds around 10mph should keep
ideal radiational cooling conditions from occurring. Overnight lows
should hover right around freezing across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Few rain or snow showers Saturday.
* Blustery and colder Sunday and Monday.
* Milder with rain possible toward the middle of next week.
Fairly good agreement among longer range guidance with respect to
larger scale pattern into next week. Another short wave rounds base
of broad trough in place across eastern states over the weekend,
which is followed by a quick shot of colder air, then we should see
a change to a split flow pattern over CONUS which favors milder air
returning by the middle of next week. Additionally, the pattern
favors a number of southern stream systems emerging from desert SW
into southern Plains which eventually eject toward Great Lakes.
First of these arrives sometime around middle of next week and may
set stage for an overall milder and wetter pattern for the first
half of March.
Clipper system on Sat is expected to track through northern New
England and should have little moisture to work with, so overall any
precipitation will be light and trending more toward rain vs snow,
but there should be enough cold air at start to allow for scattered
snow showers late Fri night along and north of Mass Pike before a
quick change to rain from S to N Sat morning - overall little impact
on travel with odds favoring an inch or less of accumulation north
of the Pike.
Behind this system, a brief shot of cold arrives on gusty NW winds
Sunday into Monday. Core of coldest air comes through Sun night when
we should see lows zero to 10 above, and in teens along immediate
coast, with wind chills to start day Mon morning as low as zero to
10 below across higher elevations. Probably not enough for cold
weather headlines but certainly a reminder that winter isn't done
just yet.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z TAFs: Moderate confidence, mainly due to timing of changing
conditions.
VFR conditions most of the night give way to MVFR/IFR after 06z
with -RASN across inland sites and -SN at higher elevations
which changes to rain 12z-14z Thu. Closer to coast -RA is
expected. Conditions lower to IFR areawide Thu morning in -RA
before tapering off Thu afternoon, though another round of -SHRA
possible later in the day. Improvement to VFR Thu night.
Light winds tonight become SE Thu morning then S/SW and increase
Thu afternoon with 25-30kt gusts along coast. LLWS expected near
coast as well with 020 winds S/SW 50-60kt, strongest near Cape
Cod.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Changed -RASN to -RA at onset as
it appears it will stay too warm for any frozen precip.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SN, chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.
Sunday through Monday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight and Thursday night...High confidence.
Winds diminish this evening and become southerly late tonight,
then increase to 20-30 kt Thu as low level jet moves across the
waters. Seas build to 6-9 ft over the outer waters Thu. Periods
of rain late tonight into Thu with vsbys reduced at times. Cold
front crosses the waters Thursday night, turning winds westerly
at 10-20 knots. There could be some thunderstorms over the
waters with the cold front, with precip ending by Friday
morning.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 20 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray, slight
chance of snow.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of freezing spray,
slight chance of snow.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
ANZ232>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KP/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...KP/JWD
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 6:20 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502262320-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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