JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 3:02 AM EST
648
FXUS63 KJKL 010802
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
302 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry and quiet weather will continue through the weekend.
- Windy conditions with widespread rain showers and a low
potential for thunderstorms will accompany a strong cold front
passage late Tuesday through Wednesday.
- Cold returns briefly Wednesday night into Thursday with
scattered to numerous snow showers.
- Temperatures quickly moderate with rain chances returning Friday
into Friday night, and likely continuing into at least the start
of next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2025
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 1056 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2025
Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term
forecast was in line with the ongoing conditions. This resulted in
only minor changes - otherwise the forecast remains in good shape
going into the overnight hours. All updates have been published
and sent to NDFD/web. Another set of zones/SAFs were also sent
out to remove evening wording.
UPDATE Issued at 733 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2025
As we headed into the evening hours, and winds started to
diminish, decided to go ahead and end the NPW/Wind advisory. It
does look like a llvl jet may set up this evening, but models are
all suggesting an inversion setting up at the surface, and
therefore the winds will be trapped above the surface, becoming
more of a llvl wind shear threat instead. Also loaded in the
latest observations to make sure the near term grids were on track
with the current conditions, especially the winds and wind gusts.
All updates were published and sent to NDFD/web. A new set of
zones and a HWO were also sent out to remove the wind advisory
wording.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2025
The forecast period begins with surface high pressure over the area.
Ahead of a strong cold front, low-level flow will continue to advect
warmer temperatures into the region. As a result, temperatures have
climbed into the low to mid-60s. Also, due to the stronger low-level
flow and pressure gradient, gusty southwesterly winds have developed
and will continue to be gusty through the remainder of the afternoon.
Late today into the overnight, a dry cold front will slowly approach
the area. A surface low tracking through the Great Lakes will drag a
cold front through the CWA but with a widespread lack of moisture,
PoP will be nonexistent. Due to the strong winds along and ahead of
the front, a wind advisory was hoisted this morning due to
widespread strong winds with gusts to 45 mph. An SPS was also issued
for sub-advisory winds but gusts between 30 and 35 are still
expected in those areas. Once behind the front, high pressure will
return and temperatures will begin to fall courtesy of FROPA CAA.
Saturday will bring much cooler and more seasonal temperatures to
eastern Kentucky due to CAA. Also, as the trough, responsible for
the surface low, pivots into eastern Kentucky, isolated sprinkles or
snow flurries will be possible across the far eastern reaches of the
CWA.
Overall the period will be highlighted by temperatures in the low to
mid-60s and lows in the mid-30 to mid-40s tonight and falling
temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2025
The period begins Sunday evening into the overnight with near-
optimal conditions for significant ridge-valley splits with surface
high pressure overhead and weakening northwest flow aloft as upper
ridging approaches from the west. With high confidence in this, we
lowered temperatures in the typically colder sheltered valleys by up
to 8 degrees from the mid-slopes and ridgetops.
For Monday into Tuesday, there is uncertainty associated with a
potent disturbance that models project to steadily weaken and
eventually dissipate as it moves east from the Central Plains to the
mid-Mississippi River Valley and then the Tennessee River Valley, as
it runs into the downstream ridge. For this reason, we will carry
sub-10 PoPs for Monday afternoon, and sub-20 PoPs for Monday night,
for the low chance of some shower activity encroaching from the west
before it dissipates. At the least, there will be increased cloud
cover during this period with an overall warming trend.
The most impactful weather of the period arrives Tuesday night into
Wednesday with the arrival and passage of a strong cold front
associated with a potent upper low moving from the Four Corners
Region Tuesday to the Great Lakes Region Wednesday afternoon. The
EC Extreme Forecast Index suggests strong and gusty winds will
accompany this system, with the NBM suggesting low-end Wind
Advisory criteria (40 mph or higher gusts) along and near high
terrain along the Tennessee and Virginia border, and a 40 to 70
percent chance across much of the remainder of eastern Kentucky
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Additionally, models would
also suggest a low potential for thunderstorms along with shower
activity, though for this forecast package we will follow the NBM
Probability for Thunder grids which suggest too low of
probabilities to warrant any mention at this time, but this may
change with future forecasts. However, the overall model trend is
for eastern Kentucky to reside within an area of a relative lack
of instability compared to areas to the west and to the east in
association with the frontal passage. The cold frontal passage
during the early morning hours Wednesday is also a potential
inhibiting factor for thunderstorms.
Cold air spills into the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with
both the GFS and ECMWF suggesting cold advection upslope snow
showers. Both the NBM and the LREF suggest low potential for any
significant measurable accumulations, and any potential snow
accumulations would primarily be limited to the high terrain near
and just upwind of the Pine and Black Mountain regions.
Transitory ridging builds across the region Thursday night but
quickly evolves into fast zonal flow with rapidly increasing clouds
and moisture Friday into Friday night ahead of a developing system
ejecting east from the Four Corners Region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2025
An upper level trough and surface low pressure continue to exit
away from the region, while an associated cold front will pass
through eastern Kentucky early this morning. As the front nears,
a llvl jet sets up for much of the nigh from the southwest at
generally between 40 and 45 kts about 2,000 AGL. Some component of
these winds may still be able to transfer to the sfc allowing for
higher gusts for another couple of hours or so. Otherwise, this
front should have very little impact, with just a brief patch of
mid level clouds as it passes through and a stray sprinkle. VFR
conditions will then persist into the day, however strong NW flow
may advect some lower clouds into the region from the Great Lakes,
mainly across the KSYM and KSJS sites. Daytime mixing then causes
the NW winds to pick back up, with gusts between 15 and 20 kts
during the afternoon hours - diminishing late in the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JMW/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 1, 3:02 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202503010802-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!