ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:46 AM EST
387
FXUS61 KILN 280846
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
346 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will move east across the western and
central Great Lakes today. It will be warmer and windy ahead of
this low and its associated cold front. As the low moves east to
the eastern Great Lakes and New England tonight, the cold front
will push south through the region. Much colder air can be
expected behind the front along with a few snow showers or
flurries on Saturday. High pressure will then settle across the
region Saturday night into Sunday with below normal temperatures
persisting.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Through sunrise, a surface ridge will quickly move east across
the region. Winds will back with time to the south. Some high
clouds can be expected, mainly of the thin variety.
For today, strong low pressure is forecast to move east across
the western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The pressure gradient
will tighten with the approach of this low, along with
increasing wind fields in the lower and mid levels of the
atmosphere. We will be located in the warm sector south of the
low and to the southeast of an associated cold front. Plenty of
sunshine is expected, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid
50s northeast to the lower 60s southwest. Diurnal mixing and
the tight pressure gradient will result in breezy to windy
conditions. The Wind Advisory has been expanded to include much
of the Tri-State as peak wind gusts could approach 45 mph here.
In the remainder of the Wind Advisory, winds could gust up to 50
mph. For all other locations outside of the Wind Advisory,
winds will gust in the 30 mph to 40 mph range. Will issue an
SPS for the remainder of the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, winds will remain gusty as a cold front approaches
then passes southeast across the region. The gusts, however,
will be more in the 25 to 35 mph early on, then 20 to 25 mph
overnight. The front itself appears to be moisture starved.
Clouds will increase with the front, and there could be a low
chance for showers, mainly across central Ohio. For the
overnight period, CAA will be taking place. This will spread CAA
stratocumulus clouds southward. We could start to see a few
flurries or a slight chance for snow showers across or northwest
CWFA late. Lows will range from the mid 20s north to the mid
30s south.
On Saturday, a mid level trough axis will still have to pass
southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Given the CAA
across the Great Lakes, we should see a good deal of cloud
cover. The cold flow off the Great Lakes, cyclonic flow aloft
with the mid level trough, and diurnal shallow instability, can
not rule out a few flurries or snow showers, especially given
the cloud deck will begin to insect the dendritic growth zone.
It will be brisk and cold for the first of March. Highs will not
warm up that much from morning lows due to the CAA and expected
cloud cover. Highs will range from the upper 20s north to the
upper 30s south.
For Saturday night, the mid level trough axis will move east.
Under a northwest flow aloft, surface high pressure will begin
to build into the region from the northwest. Skies will
gradually clear overnight and winds will diminish. This will
allow for cold temperatures in the 15 to 20 degree range by
Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains in control on Sunday, keeping the
region dry with some sunshine, though chilly, with highs in the 30s.
Sunday overnight lows fall to the 20s and high clouds begin to
overspread the region from the west.
We'll begin warm air advecting again for the start of the work week
on the backside of the surface high. Additionally, a weak shortwave
will scoot just east of the Ozarks, opening up and dissolving into
the larger flow. This will act to enhance the warming trend we'll
already be feeling. High temperatures on Monday reach the mid 40s.
Some low end PoPs are possible with this wave, particularly closer
to the Tri-State.
PoP chances continue to increase as we head toward mid-week, when a
more robust system looks to impact the region. Ample southerly flow
on Tuesday will result in temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s
(low 60s along the Ohio River???), with Tds rising into the 40s as a
surge of theta-e pushes into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. There are
still quite a few details to be worked out on timing- though the
majority of the impacts look to arrive Tuesday overnight through
Wednesday afternoon. With recent runs, it still appears that
there is a reasonable chance for convection, gusty
synoptic winds with a cranking LLJ, and possibly heavy rain.
After this system moves through, we'll be back to slightly more
seasonable temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z, a surface ridge axis will traverse east across the
region. Lingering post stratocumulus clouds will give way to
SCT-BKN cirrus from the northwest. Winds will back with time
from the west/northwest to the south, sustained between 5 and 10
knots.
For today, the ridge axis shifts quickly to the east. Our
attention then turns to strong low pressure which is forecast to
move east/southeast across the western and central Great Lakes.
Our region will be in the warm sector out ahead of the low and
an attendant cold front. The surface pressure gradient will
tighten, and low level wind fields will increase. The result
will be windy conditions, peaking between 18Z and 22Z. South to
southwest winds will be sustained between 15 and 25 knots with
wind gusts ranging from near 30 knots across south central Ohio
and northeast Kentucky to up to 45 knots in parts of west
central Ohio. These winds have been reflected accordingly in
each terminal. Only a FEW-SCT cirrus clouds are expected for
most of the day.
For tonight, the strong low pressure system will move east
toward the eastern Great Lakes and New England. The attendant
cold front is poised to move southeast across the region. Gusty
winds will continue into the evening and even overnight as
winds veer with time from the southwest to the northwest.
Strongest gusts will occur in the 00Z and 03Z time frame which
could be up to 30 knots in spots. The front itself seems to be
moisture starved, so some mid clouds are expected, and there
could be a low chance for showers across central Ohio. CAA
following the front will spread CAA stratocumulus clouds
southward into the region overnight. Developing cyclonic flow
with a mid level trough and the cold air moving over the Great
Lakes may result in a few snow showers or flurries late.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities possible on Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>055-060>063-070>072-077-
078.
KY...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
for KYZ089>096.
IN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hickman
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:46 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502280846-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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