PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:51 PM EST
600
FXUS61 KPBZ 282051
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
351 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will return rain, changing to snow, to the region
tonight and Saturday. Light accumulations are possible,
primarily in the higher terrain. Dry weather and colder is then
expected through Monday with precipitation chance returning
midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry with partial clearing the rest of today
- Showers return tonight, beginning as rain, then transitioning
to light snow behind the cold front
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Dry weather continues today as ridging builds across the area.
This will be short-lived, however, as the next upper shortwave
and surface low pressure crosses out of the Great Lakes and into
Ontario by this evening. Increasing pressure gradient as this
system nears will keep gusty conditions in the forecasts, with
gusts from 30 to 35 mph likely through the afternoon. Warm
advection ahead of the low should also result in high
temperatures ranging from 5 to 10 degrees above average.
Scattered showers will return tonight as the surface low
approaches and drags a cold front through the region. CAMs
indicate the possibility for a few showers across the area as
early as the 9-10pm time frame, but better jet support, along
with frontal convergence will likely not occur until after
midnight. Post-frontal cold advection should then transition
rain showers to snow showers from north to south in the pre-dawn
hours. Latest model guidance still indicates a lack of deep
layer moisture, likely limiting precipitation coverage during
the overnight into Saturday morning. Any snow accumulation by
sunrise will be minimal and mainly confined to areas north of
Pittsburgh.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow showers continue on Saturday, likely peaking in the
afternoon
- Banding is possible with isolated areas of quick accumulation
and travel impacts
- Showers end Saturday night with dry weather through Monday
--------------------------------------------------------------------
A second, more robust upper trough will cross the region
Saturday morning, resulting in scattered snow showers in
northwest flow. Moisture again is likely to be the limiting
factor: Lake Erie is near 80% ice coverage and there is limited
connection to Huron and Michigan. However, with decent lapse
rates increasing through the DGZ, this could be enough to result
in some snow enhancement. Snow activity is likely to peak in
the afternoon, with any remaining snow showers ending Saturday
evening as the trough axis shifts east.
Overall snow totals for the event (tonight through Saturday)
remain relatively low, with around an inch forecast in some
locations north of I-80 and in the Laurels/Allegheny Mtns.
However, potential for snow banding Saturday afternoon could
produce briefly high snow rates, leading to a quick inch or two
accumulation in isolated areas. Gusty winds and lower visibility
will also likely be issues as bands of snow cross the area. Air
and road temperatures will steadily drop through the afternoon,
so any higher snow rates could prove impactful to travel. The
threat for this will continue to be monitored.
High pressure will build back in Saturday night into Sunday,
with dry weather maintained through Monday. Pressure gradient
will gradually relax Saturday into Sunday, though breezy
conditions will continue through Sunday afternoon.
Steadily falling temperatures through Saturday will drop into
the teens Saturday night. Highs will be below average on Sunday,
warming back to near average on Monday as high pressure shifts
east and warm advection begins.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain chances return with strong low pressure late Tuesday into
Wednesday night
- Colder with snow possible late Wednesday night and Thursday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles indicate a deepening western CONUS trough will cross
into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by mid-week as low
pressure strengthens at the surface. Southwest flow ahead of
the trough/low will transport warm air and moisture across the
region late Tuesday and Tuesday night, returning rain chances
to the area. Periods of rain should then continue with cold
frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence is
moderate to high in rain transitioning to snow once again late
Wednesday into Thursday behind the front.
Temperatures will warm through Wednesday, when highs are
expected to be around 60 for many locations. Readings are
expected to return to below average levels by late week.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions and breezy south-southwest winds prevail through
this afternoon. High clouds continue to increase in coverage,
then gradually lower tonight as the next upper shortwave trough
approaches from the west. Ceiling restriction potential
increases overnight with the onset of scattered rain showers,
primarily after ~05z. Probabilities for MVFR cigs continue to
hover around 60-80% in these rain showers. Probabilities for
IFR remain low until a cold front pushes through and rain
transitions to snow, after which they increase to 40-60%
(especially north of Pittsburgh) in snow showers through
Saturday morning.
Southwest winds today veer to westerly and then northwesterly
tonight with the passage of the cold front, remaining breezy
through that time.
Outlook...
Restriction potential decreases Saturday evening with the
departure of snow showers and advection of drier air into the
region. High pressure maintains VFR Sunday and Monday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...WM/Rackley
AVIATION...Cermak/22
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 3:51 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502282051-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!