MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 22, 4:03 PM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
342
FXUS64 KMOB 222203
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
403 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 401 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025
An upper level low pressure system moving east into western Texas
this afternoon and across Texas tonight and will then continue to
move rather quickly eastward across our area Sunday and Sunday
night. This, combined with some additional shortwave energy digging
into the upper to the west Texas will help to induce surface low
pressure late tonight along the upper Texas coast which will then
move east across the northern Gulf Sunday and Sunday night. Deep
moisture will advect northeastward across the forecast area to the
north and east of the surface low, supporting the development of
overrunning rainfall by early Sunday morning across western portions
of our forecast area which will then spread east during the Sunday
afternoon and Sunday evening hours. After coord with adjacent
offices and looking over the MOS output as well as the 12z
deterministic model runs, decided to go a little higher with regard
to PoPs than current NBM output. PoPs will be trending up from west
to east across the area Sunday afternoon and evening, with highest
PoPs across the southeastern portions of the area during the evening
hours on Sunday, then slightly tapering off from west to east after
midnight Sunday night (although still remaining likely across most
of the southern half of the forecast area). Limited instability
should keep the potential for any thunder low and mainly well
offshore, so no strong to severe storms are expected, and for now
rainfall totals will be generally light (with highest totals
generally around one inch at any given location, but likely somewhat
less than that over the northern half of the forecast area). As
such, not expecting any significant flash flooding impacts, although
at least one area river, the Tombigbee, remains at minor flood
stage. Several other rivers are at Action Stage, and depending on
where some of the heavier rain may fall, it is possible a few of
those could rise to near minor flooding once again. Nothing
significant, but something we will continue to monitor.
Lows tonight will also be several degrees warmer than last night,
ranging from around 30 over far northern locations to the low to mid
40s along the coast. On Sunday, highs will be somewhat influenced by
widespread clouds and rain, and will range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s over western portions of the forecast area and in the mid
to upper 50s over eastern and coastal portions of the forecast area.
Lows Sunday night will range from the mid to upper 30s (even a few
low 40s) over interior locations, mid to upper 40s closer to and
along the coast. DS/12
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 401 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025
The rain should be a distant memory by the middle to latter part of
Monday morning. A shortwave trough continues to pivot across the
region through the day on Monday, eventually allowing northerly to
northwesterly flow aloft to prevail overhead through at least
Tuesday. Meanwhile a surface high builds into the region through mid-
week. The area remains dry through Wednesday with a warming trend in
the temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will top out in the mid to low
70s.
As we roll deeper into the week, another shortwave trough pivots
across the Midwest and Mid-South but gets less amplified in the
zonal flow aloft by the time it swings into the Deep South. The cold
front associated with this trough will slide into the area on
Thursday. Moisture return ahead of this front will likely be just
enough to spark rain showers across a portion of the area on
Thursday, but at this point, the rain does not look to be
widespread. The area dries out with a return of mild temperatures as
we roll into the weekend as high pressure dominates the forecast.
07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025
Light offshore flow will persist across the marine area tonight as
surface high pressure remains the dominant weather feature. A low
pressure system forming off the Upper Texas coast by Sunday morning
will move eastward across the northern Gulf coast with increasing
east to northeast winds and building seas. For now it appears that
winds and seas will remain just below SCEC criteria and well below
SCA criteria. The low pressure system will move east by Monday with
high pressure building back over the region with a return light
offshore flow for the first part of next week. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 40 51 43 65 42 72 47 74 / 30 90 70 10 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 44 56 47 66 47 71 50 71 / 10 80 80 10 0 0 0 0
Destin 45 59 49 67 50 71 52 71 / 0 80 100 10 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 34 54 39 67 39 74 43 77 / 0 70 70 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 33 48 37 63 38 72 43 76 / 20 80 50 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 30 52 37 64 37 71 42 75 / 0 60 60 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 36 57 44 69 41 74 44 76 / 0 80 100 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 22, 4:03 PM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502222203-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!