IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 6:41 AM EST
801
FXUS63 KIND 281141
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
641 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy conditions with frequent gusts of 35-45 MPH are likely.
Locally higher gusts will be possible
- A brief weekend cooldown temps in the 30s for highs.
- Potential for locally heavy rainfall and possible strong
thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Early this morning satellite imagery indicates high based cirrus
floating southeast in advance of a shortwave presently positioned
over the Upper Midwest. Isallobaric pressure gradient is minimal at
the moment, with a light westerly flow around 5 to 10 kts decoupled
from the deep mixing that occured Thur. Still enough friction in the
near surface environment to inhibit temps from freely radiating,
which is likely going to keep temps in the low 30s for much of
Central Indiana thru daybreak. Southern portions of the forecast
area are slightly warmer in the mid/upr 30s.
Main highlight of note for midday will be how deep we mix, and
progged wind gusts flirting with wind warning criteria. Lets get
into the details and explain the setup. Wicked mid-lvl pressure
gradient exists from the Ohio Valley north through the Great Lakes
region, well depicted from the 500-700mb layerers amongst several
guidance members. The near surface shortwave vort is progged to
slide southeast from Upper Midwest this morning and flirt with the
perimeter of the Ohio Valley midday. This will likely provide
optimal conditions for deep mixing to yet again occur across Central
Indiana. Strong isallobaric pressure gradients will set the tone,
and quickly be realized with the deep mixing from a relatively clean
boundary layer from minimal clouds and moisture. This will set the
stage for a well mixed deep column and a potent LLJ on the order of
50-60kts. While it does not appear we will fully bring to the
surface such high winds, expect some filtering to occur and still
allow for gusts well past 45mph with some less frequent gusts to 50-
55mph. The frequency to reach warning criteria does not appear to be
favorable at this moment, so only adjustments to the current
headline will be to expand for the remainder of the forecast area in
the south neighboring WFO LMK.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Saturday through Sunday...
Deep 500mb trough will continue to progressively pivot east through
the region. Broad surface ridge should remain the main influence and
provide abundant clear skies and benign weather for the Sat
timeframe. Trough axis should be just east of the region Sun, but
the high amplitude ridge along the interior west should maintain a
northwest flow in the mid-lvls and keep the cooler air flowing
across the Ohio Valley into Sun.
Previous extended discussion...Dry weather will continue through the
weekend early next week. Temperatures will begin to recover early
next week, rising back into the 50s by Tuesday and Wednesday, as the
surface high departs to the east and heights build ahead of a
strong, rapidly developing leeside low which will then lift into the
Great Lakes during this time frame.
Widespread showers are highly likely Tuesday into Wednesday with
strong and deep poleward moisture transport expected ahead of the
aforementioned low. A few thunderstorms are certainly on the table
as well. Locally heavy rain potential and possibly some return to
minor flooding will be possible threats, particularly south where
streamflows are still receding from recent lowland flooding.
We will have to keep an eye out for a conditional severe threat, but
given the current expected track of the low, a far more substantial
severe threat would likely be located more to our south. This is
well supported by both the CIPS analogs and experimental CSU machine
learning guidance, as well as the SPC long range outlook.
The passage of this strong low will likely bring another at least
brief cooldown toward late week and into the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Impacts:
- Gusty winds to near 25KT will let up after 03Z this evening
- Windy conditions after 17Z today with gusts to 40 KT from
210-240 degrees
Discussion:
VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period...although SCT/BKN
mid-level decks will fall to low-VFR after 06Z tonight from north to
south.
Main concern today and this evening will be windy conditions ahead
of/amid a strong but dry cold frontal passage. A low level jet and
impressive surface gradient associated with this system, coupled
with deep mixing...will provide windy conditions with gusts peaking
around 40KT this afternoon. Southwesterly surface flow today will
veer late today/early this evening...to northwest by 05Z tonight.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Beach
LONG TERM...Beach
AVIATION...AGM
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 28, 6:41 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502281141-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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