IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 6:25 PM EST
346
FXUS63 KIND 272325
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
625 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon across
east/northeast portions of central IN
- Breezy conditions today with gusts around 25-35 mph possible
- Windy conditions Friday when frequent gusts of 35-45 MPH are
likely. Locally higher gusts will be possible
- A brief weekend cooldown will be followed by rebounding temperatures
next week, as well as potential for locally heavy rainfall and possibly
few strong storms by Tuesday into Tuesday night
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
The best combo of shear and instability has shifted east into Ohio
and with it the threat for thunderstorms. In addition, the cold
front and upper trough have also moved into Ohio was in ushering in
colder temperatures with northern areas down to the 40s. Winds were
also gradually coming down and by nightfall the gusts should be
dropping off with the end of the deep solar heating induced mixing.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 235 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
A broad ridge over the Intermountain-West has led to strong upper
level NW flow over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Streaks within
this elongated jet stream will induce weak shortwaves leading to a
mostly dry, but volatile short term for central Indiana. The first
mid level wave will move through the region this afternoon. The LLJ
will be out of the WSW, providing dry low level air to the region.
Despite this, modest lapse rates above 850mb may be enough for
developing cumulus to achieve precipitation processes late this
afternoon and evening. Greatest threat for this will be over far
eastern Indiana, but any shower or storm should be isolated. Outside
of shower development, these steep lapse rates will also promote
breezy conditions with gusts around 25-35 mph possible.
The first wave begins to shift east this evening with any lingering
showers quickly tapering off. Wind gusts are also expected to taper
off around or shortly after sunset as the PBL stabilizes. Surface
and upper ridging will then build in overnight providing quiet
weather conditions. Look for temperatures to generally fall into the
low 30s.
Tomorrow, a second, more potent, wave will arrive. This wave will be
attached with a 50-60kt LLJ, but will once again be rooted in a
continental/dry air mass. Modeled soundings look "Plains-like" with
the afternoon mixing layer reaching 2500-3000 meters, and near
surface dew points in the low 30s to upper 20s. This will create
ideal conditions for frequent wind gusts to 45mph, with occasional
gusts upwards of 55mph. Steep lapse rates and a trapped moisture
layer will likely lead to afternoon cu development over southern
central Indiana. This area will also likely remain slightly capped
lowering wind gust expectation in southern central Indiana (25-
35mph).
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 235 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
A broad western ridge/eastern trough pattern over the CONUS will
bring a brief cooldown to the area for the weekend, with highs
returning to the 30s and lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.
Though a potent surface low will pass through the northern Great
Lakes early in the long term, these clipper style systems typically
see moisture and precipitation focused along and north of the
surface low track, and this one should be the same - even with the
broader upper low and passage of a fairly strong cold front, that
lack of moisture will prevent more than an increase in clouds early
in the weekend.
Winds will be ramping down fairly steadily by 00Z Saturday as the
mixed layer rapidly collapses, but a few gusts into the low to mid
20KT range will likely occur at times through the night as the
pressure gradient remains tight and strong cold advection ramps up.
Dry weather will continue through the weekend into Monday.
Temperatures will begin to recover early next week, rising back into
the 50s by Tuesday and Wednesday, as the surface high departs to the
east and heights build ahead of a strong, rapidly developing leeside
low which will then lift into the Great Lakes during this time frame.
Widespread showers are highly likely Tuesday into Wednesday with
strong and deep poleward moisture transport expected ahead of the
aforementioned low. A few thunderstorms are certainly on the table
as well. Locally heavy rain potential and possibly some return to
minor flooding will be possible threats, particularly south where
streamflows are still receding from recent lowland flooding.
We will have to keep an eye out for a conditional severe threat, but
given the current expected track of the low, a far more substantial
severe threat would likely be located more to our south. This is
well supported by both the CIPS analogs and experimental CSU machine
learning guidance, as well as the SPC long range outlook.
The passage of this strong low will likely bring another at least
brief cooldown toward late week and into the next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 543 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
Impacts:
- Gusty winds to near 25 knots will let up after 02z-03z
- Windy conditions after 18z Friday with gusts to 40 knots from
210-240 degrees
Discussion:
A strong but dry cold front will sweep across the terminals Friday
evening. A low level jet and tight surface gradient associated with
this system along with deep mixing will provide windy conditions
with gusts to around 40 knots during the afternoon. VFR flying
conditions will dominate due to a dry column per Hi-Res soundings.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...MK
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...MK
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 6:25 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502272325-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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