LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 11:06 AM EST
547
FXUS63 KLMK 271606
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1106 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated showers and low-topped thunderstorms possible in the
northeastern portions of the region, with gusty winds and small
hail possible.
* Breezy and mild Friday, then turning chilly for the weekend.
* Next chance of rain arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. A few strong
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
With the cold front passage this morning, the cloud deck is
departing to our east, and sfc winds have become westerly.
Temperatures have reached the upper 40s and low 50s so far, and do
expect the entire forecast area to reach the 50s, with some areas
likely hitting the 60s by this afternoon.
Overall forecast remains in good shape, with the only tweaking
needed being to PoPs for this afternoon. Hi-res guidance supports
more isolated type precip this afternoon as the trough axis pivots
overhead, so have backed off on PoPs some in our far northeast and
eastern portions of the CWA. SPC has a general thunder risk across
our eastern half, which is appropriate given the aforementioned
shortwave trough, along with steep mid-level lapse rates supporting
modest buoyancy. With low freezing heights, and soundings suggesting
some instability, gusty showers and low-topped thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon, mainly for our northeastern corner of the
forecast area. Given the cold temps aloft, cannot rule out some
small hail potential with any storms that develop. Precip chances
are only for a portion of the area, and most locations will remain
dry for the rest of the day. Updated forecast products will be sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
Through Dawn...
Currently, a cold front is draped over the Ohio River. Along and
ahead of the front, widely scattered showers are bringing light rain
and gusty winds up to 40mph. The cold front will continue to push
southeast through the region through the early morning hours. Behind
the front, winds will shift to the NW and become light.
Today...
Sharp upper troughing will dig south as it swings through the Ohio
Valley today. CAA and northwest flow will bring cooler temperatures.
High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s and the
most southern portions of Kentucky reaching the low 60s. Mostly
cloudy skies in the morning will slowly thin to partly cloudy.
In the afternoon, a 35-40kt LLJ will move into the region. This jet,
coupled with steepening lapse rates, would allow for gusty winds up
to 30mph to make it to the surface. As the trough swings through,
CVA and little moisture aloft may bring scattered showers and storms
in the late afternoon. Probabilistic forecast soundings show
impressively steep lapse rates, a few hundred joules of SBCAPE, and
DCAPE around 500 J/kg. Due to these elements, showers and storms may
bring gusty winds and small hail. Best chances will be over the
northeastern and eastern portions of the CWA in the late afternoon
through the early evening hours.
Tonight...
The aforementioned trough will swing east of the region tonight.
Heights will increase, allowing the region to dry out and skies to
thin. Winds will be light out of the WNW and slowly back ahead of
the next system. Friday morning lows are expected to be in the low
to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
Friday through Sunday Night...
Look for broad upper trofiness over the eastern CONUS Friday through
the weekend. Friday will be a transition day as a Clipper system
swings through the Great Lakes, with mild and breezy weather across
the Ohio Valley ahead of a moisture-starved cold front. NBM temps
are already on the high end of the guidance envelope, which will put
us close to 10 degrees above normal, but even that may be a bit
conservative. Biggest sensible wx impact will be strong SW winds,
with widespread 30-35 mph gusts on Fri afternoon. Highest
probabilities for 40 mph gusts remain to our north, but certainly
not out of the question for areas along and north of I-64. If
confidence in strong wind gusts continues to increase, a Wind
Advisory may be needed.
Cold front drops through the Ohio Valley Friday night with only a
wind shift and a few clouds to show for itself. Stronger forcing
stays solidly to our north and east, and there is no good moisture
feed into this system. Sat-Sun temps will feel more like mid-winter,
even with plenty of sunshine.
Early to Mid Next Week...
Heights start rising in earnest Sunday night as upper ridging builds
over the northern and central Plains, but a closed southern stream
upper low will track eastward across the Red River Valley. This
feature finally washes out across the Deep South on Monday night,
while the Ohio Valley stays dry with temps quickly recovering above
climo by Tuesday under an amplifying longwave pattern with a
western trof and eastern ridge.
Full-latitude upper trof will push through around mid-week with
strong meridional flow and a deep Gulf moisture feed. Widespread
rain and at least a few embedded thunderstorms are expected, but the
exact setup and timing will determine our potential for strong to
severe storms. Ample shear should be in play, and instability will
most likely be the limiting factor either due to timing or being cut
off by convection over the Deep South. Machine learning
probabilities do extend at least a low-end SVR threat into Kentucky,
so this system bears watching.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
The cold front has exited the region and the terminals remain under
WNW flow. A band of high-end MVFR CIGs is swinging through the
northern terminals, bringing CIGs down for a few hours. VFR CIGs
will return by the late morning.
This afternoon, with good atmospheric mixing, we will see gusty
winds between 20-28kts. In the early evening, isolated-scattered
showers and storms may impact LEX/RGA. Some storms may bring small
hail and gusty winds.
Tonight, skies will clear and winds will become light our of the
west. Overnight, winds will back ahead of the next system.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...SRW
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 27, 11:06 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502271606-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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