JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 7:46 PM EST
572
FXUS63 KJKL 270046
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
746 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will move through the area late tonight into
Thursday morning with a light rainfall.
- Gusty showers and possibly a thunderstorm can be expected again
late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening with another
disturbance. Small hail is possible with the most intense
activity.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM EST WED FEB 26 2025
Still tracking rain that is moving across the central portion of
the state. So far the forecast seems in good shape, with only
minor changes made to update the temps, dew points, and winds
based on the latest observations. All updates have been published
and sent to NDFD/web.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 335 PM EST WED FEB 26 2025
Temperatures have soared into the upper 60s to mid 70s this
afternoon under a bright and increasingly intense late winter sun.
Patchy mid-level cloud cover is drifting in from the west. Winds
are a bit breezy as well, gusting up to around 20 mph out of the
south/southwest at times as a warm front lifts north of the area.
The latest analyses shows that warm front extending east ahead of
an ~1007 mb clipper low passing over northern Illinois in advance of
a supporting shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest. A cold
front trails southwest from that low through the Ozarks and on
into the Red River Valley of the South. Another upstream
disturbance and cold front is dropping southeast from the prairies
of Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Hi-resolution model guidance is in good agreement through the short-
term depicting two rounds of light precipitation as the
aforementioned cold front and subsequent disturbance pass through
the area. The front will drop into our Bluegrass counties late
tonight, preceded and accompanied by generally light shower
activity. The shower activity becomes numerous in the I-64
corridor after midnight and progresses southeast through the
morning hours before exiting into Virginia by late morning/midday
Thursday. Moisture thins for several hours during the afternoon
before steepening lapse rates ahead of the next upper level
disturbance permit renewed convection during later afternoon and
evening hours. Anticipate the potential for lightning in the
stronger showers as model soundings suggest equilibrium levels
rising above the -20C level. Low freezing levels may permit small
hail to reach the ground in stronger cells while steep low-level
lapse rates will be favorable for the development of strong wind
gusts with more organized shower activity. The activity is
expected to be more widespread northeast of US-421. Lingering
shower activity departs into West Virginia/Southwest Virginia
after 12 AM Thursday night with leftover moisture waning as
surface high pressure noses in through the Tennessee Valley.
In sensible terms, look for a warm evening to give way to a mild and
increasingly moist overnight. A loosely organized line of scattered
to numerous showers drop from the I-64 corridor around midnight to
the Virginia/Kentucky border around 6 AM EST Thursday. The shower
activity can be expected to persist at a given location for
between 2 to 5 hours. Overnight lows will be mild, ranging from
the mid to upper 40s. Total rainfall amounts should be a few
hundredths to a few tenths for most. Lingering showers depart to
our southeast by late Thursday morning with some sunshine breaking
out for most locations, especially early to mid afternoon. It
will be cooler with highs only in the mid to upper 50s. Additional
showers and even a few thunderstorms arrive from the northwest
late in the day and quickly move southeast through the area
Thursday evening. Some of the stronger showers and storms could
produce small hail and strong wind gusts up to 40 mph.
Conditions will turn notably cooler Thursday night as leftover
precipitation ends and temperatures settle back into the lower
30s for most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 PM EST WED FEB 26 2025
A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will be in place at the start
of the period Friday morning. Another clipper low will be diving
southeast out of the Canadian Prairies on Friday morning. Mild
southwesterly return flow ahead of the system's cold front and the
potential for deep mixing under mostly sunny to sunny skies
should buoy temperatures back up above normal by Friday
afternoon. Forecast highs are within a few degrees of 60F for
most. BUFKIT mixed-layer momentum transfer supports afternoon wind
gusts of 20 to 35 mph, strongest near/north of I-64. Temperatures
remain mild Friday night until the clipper's dry cold front
arrives. Look for lows in the in the upper 30s in Fleming County
to the lower and middle 40s elsewhere by sunrise Saturday. A quick
jump in temperatures can be expected Saturday morning into the
mid 40s north to mid 50s far southeast before holding steady or
falling during the afternoon.
Model guidance falls into two camps as the deeper trough behind the
cold front digs into the Northeast CONUS on Saturday night. In
general, the core of the colder air mass strikes the Mid-Atlantic/
New England while giving eastern Kentucky a glancing blow. Guidance
has overall trended slightly colder aloft with mean LREF 850mb
temperatures dipping to between -9C in the vicinity of Lake
Cumberland to -13C over northeast Kentucky. If this holds,
temperatures will be hard-pressed to warm out of the 30s on Sunday
while nighttime lows fall into the teens and twenties. Some
upslope flakes could also occur in the favored locales Saturday
night when the stronger cold air advection is ongoing.
Looking ahead to the new work week, the primary question remains how
quickly the upper trough pulls away and the ridging over the
western CONUS translates east. With rising heights, temperatures
surge back above normal by Tuesday (if not Monday) and remain very
mild into Wednesday as a much stronger upper level trough and low
pressure system bear down on our region from the west. About 45%
of the 26/12z 100 LREF members favor the surface low moving into
the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. The remainder of
the model suite (approximately 55%) generally shows the low
organizing more slowly over the Central/Southern Plains at that
time. Overall, the slower solution does favor a deeper surface
low, higher PWATs, as well as stronger shear and instability in
the warm sector over eastern Kentucky on Wednesday. However, there
is also a fairly consistent signal across ensemble means for
convection in the Tennessee Valley which may cut into moisture
feed and reduce overall rainfall amounts in eastern Kentucky.
While not a slam dunk severe weather or hydro event, this system
is certainly something to watch, especially if the slower, deeper
solutions become more probable.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EST WED FEB 26 2025
VFR conditions are ongoing at the start of the forecast period. A
cold front is forecast to move through overnight, generally
between 6Z and 13Z, bringing with it rain showers. Went with
PROB30 on the front edge and back edge of the line, with
predominate rain along the actual front during the period of
highest precip chances. After the front moves through, expect a
dry period during the first half of the day, before a passing
upper level trough brings a resurgance of scattered rain chances
by Thursday afternoon for some TAF sites. As the system
approaches overnight, expect CIGS to begin deteriorating into the
MVFR range, 15-30k ft AGL, where they will likely remain through
much of the TAF period. VIS may also lower and fluctuate with the
passing showers, generally in the MVFR range, but will increase
back to P6SM once the showers have exited. Winds will start out
from the SW direction this evening, becoming more Wrly when the
front passes through late tonight. As we head into the daytime
hours Thursday, can't rule out some increased mixing, which could
result in gusts between 15 and 20 kts during the afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JMW
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 7:46 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502270046-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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