IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 6:16 PM EST
562
FXUS63 KIWX 232316
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
616 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild to begin the week with highs in the 40s and 50s Monday
through Wednesday.
- Best chance for rain this week is Wednesday (40-60% chance)
- Not as mild to end the week with a slight chance (20%) for
rain and snow showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
A shortwave is streaking across the Great Lakes this afternoon
bringing increased clouds and virga on radar. A stout dry layer
below 700-mb is the culprit, with an abundance of dry air noted on
low and mid-level water vapor imagery as well. Despite mostly
cloudy skies, several sites has reached the freezing mark as of
midday thanks to modest warm air advection aloft. This WAA continues
for the next 24 hours and will help promote highs in the mid to
upper-40s Monday along with breezy southwest wind.
Backing up a moment, non-zero chance of fog tonight with a subtle
increase in dew points tonight over what is at least a small snow
pack (save for SW MI) over most of the forecast area. Wind tonight
in excess of 5 knots might be enough to limit fog (thought advection
fog is generally immune to this issue). Alternatively, forecast
soundings depict some lingering low-level dry air which could
ultimately limit the fog chance.
Increasing clouds Monday night as a weak low approaches from the
west and a shortwave moves through the upper Great Lakes. Can't rule
out a few light showers (20-30% chance, with less than 0.05"
expected) Monday night. Guidance has been trending drier with this
system, owing to moisture transport confined to southern Canada and
the far southeast US. But overnight clouds will limit Tuesday
morning lows to mid-30s; a good spring-board for highs near 50
Tuesday afternoon as sunshine returns and warm air advection
continues. Our warmest day of the week is Wednesday before a cold
front approaches in the afternoon brining a chance of rain. Those
south of US 24 will reach the upper-50s while southern Michigan
could break 50-degrees; snow pack permitting.
Cold, northwest flow to round out the week. Even so, guidance is
trending not as cold as one advertised. A towering ridge develops
over the Four Corners, buckling the downstream jet through the Great
Lakes. Look for highs for the rest of the week generally in the low-
to-mid 40s. Can't rule out some snow mixing in with rain Thursday
and Friday as well.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025
Midlevel clouds will exit this evening as parent shortwave
shifts east. This will be replaced by another round of elevated
warm/moist air advection on Monday with more high-based clouds.
Low levels remain dry through the period though and VFR
conditions will prevail. Modest LLJ will support some brief LLWS
concerns early Mon AM, primarily at KSBN. Lower chances for true
LLWS at KFWA and have therefore removed the mention there. Winds
will be strong at KFWA Mon afternoon though with a few gusts up
to 30 kts possible.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...AGD
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 23, 6:16 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502232316-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!