LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 3:08 AM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
117
FXUS64 KLIX 200908
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
308 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
Not expecting any locations to make it to 50F today so cold and
breezy through today will be the main takeaway. Tonight will have
temps back in the same numbers as well see this morning, with a few
locations a degree or two cooler. The cold weather advisory will
remain for tonight. Fri we will begin to have a few degrees added to
our highs. Don't get excited, it will still be cold as highs should
only make it to the low 50s while some will still stay in the 40s.
Another light freeze north Fri night as we will begin to feel
several degrees added to lows. Other than very cold conditions,
there will be no other issues in the short term.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
Another system moves through over the weekend but the sfc low with
this remains offshore keeping the area fairly cool. The upper level
flow will be quite strong and could produce some sh/ts by Sunday
morning. This would be all elevated as well and with temps starting
Sunday in the 40s, this will be a very cold rain. After the weekend,
we will feel a definite warm up for next week and no rain for
several days. Taking a bit of an upclose view of the weekend and
some interesting features stand out. We can start with the
development of a sfc low near Brownsville on Sat. The next feature
to fit the strange column is a westward moving inverted trough over
the eastern gulf. Strange for this time of year, but this feature is
not being developed or even supported by easterlies since that is
not even a factor this time of year. But instead, it is being
developed by the refusal of the high over the NW gulf to move as
return flow develops over the eastern gulf ahead of the next digging
trough. This can best be viewed at the 850mb level in any model
solution when looking at Sat morning. By Sat night into Sun, this
850mb anticyclonic wind field over the NW gulf will break down as
the sfc low moves through the northern gulf. The high building in
from the north is strong and causes this sfc low to remain offshore.
But it does throw some moisture back over our area, just how much is
still yet to be known. But the moisture that does make its way to
our area will comprise of a depth from 5kft to 25kft. Basically, we
will see overcast cloud bases at 5kft Sunday with tops at 25kft.
This is a 20kft thick cloud deck that will produce rain but not a
high prob of lightning. The lowest thickness that can produce
lightning here is around 20kft, so this depth just makes it into
that category, but temps at mid level and cloud top levels would
have to be very cold with those depths of cloud preferably around or
lower than -20C at 500mb. Temps at 500mb on Sunday are around -16C
or slightly warmer. Does this mean not one spark will be produced?
No, but the probability would be very low. This cloud thickness
changes as one moves closer to the sfc low offshore though. But this
should not be close enough to bring any lightning to the coast. This
won't be heavy rain but we may see some bright banding on radar
since some of it will be ice melting at and below 9kft. After
Sunday, there looks to be some dry conditions for several days with
warmer temps.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
MVFR cigs will begin to decay and move out around or shortly after
daylight this morning becoming VFR through this taf cycle.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
Small craft advisories will remain over all waters as strong high
pressure builds in over the area. Another sfc low will begin to
develop in the western gulf causing winds to shift to NE by Fri but
remain around 20kt. This low will be the next weather impact for the
northern gulf over the weekend. Winds will shift to E by late Sun as
the sfc low moves through the northern/central gulf. The low will
move SE late Sunday bringing the sh/ts with it away from the
northern gulf by Mon.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
With the arctic air currently over the area, here are the
record low temperatures for today through Saturday morning at
our local sites.
Record lows today through Saturday...POR is period of record
Location (POR) Today Friday Saturday
BTR (1892) 25/2021 25/1908 24/1978
MSY (1946) 26/1978 31/1978 26/1978
MCB (1948) 19/1978 21/1978 15/1978
GPT (1893) 27/2021 29/1898 23/1978
ASD (1994) 26/2021 31/2021 28/1999
PQL (1997) 24/2015 30/2021 23/1999
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 40 21 46 30 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 43 25 50 35 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 47 25 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 45 31 47 40 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 46 26 51 35 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 48 25 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 20, 3:08 AM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202502200908-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!